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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: California  (Read 30794 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: November 17, 2010, 05:35:46 pm »
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From Swing State Project, a map that conforms to the realities of non-partisan redistricting and compact districts.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/8028/redistricting-california

Overall, that would be almost a net gain of 6 for the Democrats, just from drawing more compact districts. In reality, it will probably be 4 or 5, because I'm sure the Central Valley will turn out a bit differently than I had it, but there will nonetheless be another swing district up no matter how they draw it.
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2010, 02:50:16 am »
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The GOP will lose seats in CA. I doubt it will be that many (given the Dem trend in  California in the last decade, what was once a pretty square incumbent protection deal, became in effect a GOP gerrymander - not way out there - call it a GOP gerrymander light to medium). The issue is how many new majority minority CD's the commission wants to create, and there will be a lot of pressure to maximize them, particularly if it helps the Pubbies as a side effect. It will be a complex exercise to get a handle on what the choices of the commission really are, given the very tight constraints under the new law as to how districts are drawn. It would probably take me a solid week to even begin to get a handle on it. It is that complicated.
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2010, 12:15:13 pm »
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I really don't see how the GOP is going to hold onto the current CA-03 just for starters. Maybe if they had a solid incumbent but a guy who just barely broke 50% in a wave year clearly isn't such an example.
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2010, 12:35:31 pm »
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CA-44 as well. Calvert barely won the Riverside county portion of his district in this wave year, and actually lost it in 2008 (when his opponent basically had no money iirc). He will likely only get the Riverside portion this time around, and that should be enough due to high population growth in that area. Calvert better hope his district follows I-15 down from Corona to Murrieta, and even that probably won't have enough population, and is much less logical than a Hwy 91 based district that takes in Riverside.
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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2010, 01:09:08 pm »
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Congress will be a better place without Calvert's fat corrupt ass in it in any event.
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2010, 08:16:47 pm »

The SSP map in the OP link seems to focus too much on counties and compactness then it looks at partisan balance. I don't see any analysis of Hispanic representation. I think that may be more of a factor than many are giving thought towards. When I looked this summer using criteria from the commission I found that I could create 18 Hispanic-majority districts, 15 of which exceeded 60% Hispanic.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2010, 11:04:07 am »
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The SSP map in the OP link seems to focus too much on counties and compactness then it looks at partisan balance. I don't see any analysis of Hispanic representation. I think that may be more of a factor than many are giving thought towards. When I looked this summer using criteria from the commission I found that I could create 18 Hispanic-majority districts, 15 of which exceeded 60% Hispanic.

Maybe the Obama DOJ won't insist so much in California if there is a better chance for the Democrats to score gains without too many VRA districts.
If they want to appease Hispanics they can do that by demanding 3 new Hispanic majority districts in Texas and a second one in Arizona.
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« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2010, 11:07:13 am »
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The SSP map in the OP link seems to focus too much on counties and compactness then it looks at partisan balance. I don't see any analysis of Hispanic representation. I think that may be more of a factor than many are giving thought towards. When I looked this summer using criteria from the commission I found that I could create 18 Hispanic-majority districts, 15 of which exceeded 60% Hispanic.

Maybe the Obama DOJ won't insist so much in California if there is a better chance for the Democrats to score gains without too many VRA districts.
If they want to appease Hispanics they can do that by demanding 3 new Hispanic majority districts in Texas and a second one in Arizona.

Well Arizona and Texas are actually pre-clearance states under the VRA. California isn't and the DOJ has basically no say there.
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2010, 12:10:01 pm »
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The SSP map in the OP link seems to focus too much on counties and compactness then it looks at partisan balance. I don't see any analysis of Hispanic representation. I think that may be more of a factor than many are giving thought towards. When I looked this summer using criteria from the commission I found that I could create 18 Hispanic-majority districts, 15 of which exceeded 60% Hispanic.

Maybe the Obama DOJ won't insist so much in California if there is a better chance for the Democrats to score gains without too many VRA districts.
If they want to appease Hispanics they can do that by demanding 3 new Hispanic majority districts in Texas and a second one in Arizona.

Well Arizona and Texas are actually pre-clearance states under the VRA. California isn't and the DOJ has basically no say there.
4 counties in California are pre-clearance jurisdictions, so California has to get preclearance for any change that affects those counties specifically or in general.  They have to still get preclearance to switch congressional redistricting placed under the jurisdiction of the redistricting commission, and will have to get preclearance for each redistricting plan.

Moreover, anybody can challenge a redistricting plan under Section 2 of the VRA.
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« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2010, 01:24:43 am »
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I will be the optimist and hope the GOP picks up seats. They will need a strong game plan and excellent candidate recruitment. BTW Doesn't VRA only apply to Southern states?
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« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2010, 01:32:10 am »
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I will be the optimist and hope the GOP picks up seats. They will need a strong game plan and excellent candidate recruitment. BTW Doesn't VRA only apply to Southern states?

The VRA applies to certain counties in California (Monterey comes to mind, though there are others), and since the redistricting affects every county in the state, it is subject to the VRA.
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« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2010, 01:34:54 am »
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I will be the optimist and hope the GOP picks up seats. They will need a strong game plan and excellent candidate recruitment. BTW Doesn't VRA only apply to Southern states?

The VRA applies to certain counties in California (Monterey comes to mind, though there are others), and since the redistricting affects every county in the state, it is subject to the VRA.

Ah I see thanks for the info.
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« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2010, 02:25:10 am »
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Congress will be a better place without Calvert's fat corrupt ass in it in any event.

Definately. Any chance Jerry Lewis loses his seat as well?
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« Reply #13 on: December 22, 2010, 02:52:06 am »
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Congress will be a better place without Calvert's fat corrupt ass in it in any event.

Definately. Any chance Jerry Lewis loses his seat as well?

Probably no unfortunately, unless he retires. Swing State who usually leans to the left in political analysis doesn't even see a significant PVI change to the Democrats with the independent commission.
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« Reply #14 on: December 22, 2010, 09:01:46 am »
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Congress will be a better place without Calvert's fat corrupt ass in it in any event.

Definately. Any chance Jerry Lewis loses his seat as well?

Probably no unfortunately, unless he retires. Swing State who usually leans to the left in political analysis doesn't even see a significant PVI change to the Democrats with the independent commission.

Yes, there's certainly going to be one Republican district near San Bernardino.
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« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2010, 11:15:07 am »
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Anyone agree Lungren is probably done?
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« Reply #16 on: December 22, 2010, 04:02:51 pm »
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I don't know the terrain well enough up there yet, and how the minority-majority thing will impact it.
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« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2010, 05:31:54 pm »
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I drew that map, glad it got some discussion going here.

Lungren will almost certainly have his seat contained to Sacramento County and may end up facing Garamendi, who would very likely defeat him. Even with another opponent, he'd be the underdog.
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« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2010, 05:43:26 pm »
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Anyone agree Lungren is probably done?

I'd say it's more likely than not that he's bounced, particularly in a presidential year.
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« Reply #19 on: December 22, 2010, 10:46:31 pm »
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I think Lungren will end up with a seat that a strong incumbent Republican could hold, but not someone who could only pull 50% in a wave year. The writing is on the wall for the guy, much like similar Republicans who went down in 2006/08 and some Democrats in 2010.
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« Reply #20 on: December 22, 2010, 10:58:15 pm »

A lot will depend on how the commission sets its communities of interest. Of the geographic measure required by the constitution, that is the most nebulous. As the commission starts to define that, the effect on the map should become clear.
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« Reply #21 on: December 23, 2010, 03:21:03 am »
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Lungren will get a Sacramento County district. There are no Hispanic districts to be drawn there, so 2 districts will be drawn within the county, which works out almost perfectly. Lungren could still hold that district though, but it will be hard if Obama is winning in 2012 and Lungren has a well financed challenger.
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« Reply #22 on: December 23, 2010, 08:12:41 am »
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I really don't see how the GOP is going to hold onto the current CA-03 just for starters. Maybe if they had a solid incumbent but a guy who just barely broke 50% in a wave year clearly isn't such an example.

There was no wave this year in Sacramento County.
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« Reply #23 on: January 23, 2011, 12:12:41 am »
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one thing that needs to be drawn is a black majority district in LA. It can be done. According to a 1978 article, it said that Augustus Hawkins represented a 59 percent black district.
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« Reply #24 on: January 23, 2011, 12:48:01 am »
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one thing that needs to be drawn is a black majority district in LA. It can be done. According to a 1978 article, it said that Augustus Hawkins represented a 59 percent black district.

While I am sure it may be possible (though it may be possible in 2010, I will guarantee you that district won't be majority Black by the next census), I doubt that it will be required. Rather Blacks will get a couple of districts where they can elect their own representatives.
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