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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: California  (Read 26976 times)
freepcrusher
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« Reply #25 on: January 23, 2011, 12:57:47 am »
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what makes you think it wouldn't be majority black by next decade? In L.A. blacks are to mexicans what Native Americans are to whites in 1870s Montana.
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« Reply #26 on: January 23, 2011, 01:26:49 am »
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The SSP map in the OP link seems to focus too much on counties and compactness then it looks at partisan balance. I don't see any analysis of Hispanic representation. I think that may be more of a factor than many are giving thought towards. When I looked this summer using criteria from the commission I found that I could create 18 Hispanic-majority districts, 15 of which exceeded 60% Hispanic.

Maybe the Obama DOJ won't insist so much in California if there is a better chance for the Democrats to score gains without too many VRA districts.
If they want to appease Hispanics they can do that by demanding 3 new Hispanic majority districts in Texas and a second one in Arizona.

Well Arizona and Texas are actually pre-clearance states under the VRA. California isn't and the DOJ has basically no say there.

Nobody is going to submit to the DOJ if they decide to be partisan hacks about it. It'll go to the district court instead.
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« Reply #27 on: January 23, 2011, 10:34:43 am »
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one thing that needs to be drawn is a black majority district in LA. It can be done. According to a 1978 article, it said that Augustus Hawkins represented a 59 percent black district.

Those parts are becoming more and more Hispanic, many Blacks have moved out to places like the Antelope Valley and Inland Empire, so it's not easy to do a compact black district. A black representative can still get elected, because the political bench and structure there still is mostly black.

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« Reply #28 on: January 23, 2011, 12:40:45 pm »
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what makes you think it wouldn't be majority black by next decade? In L.A. blacks are to mexicans what Native Americans are to whites in 1870s Montana.

Black LA neighborhoods (save for the middle class/rich areas) are rapidly becoming Latino. Compton is already Latino majority and so is Inglewood according to the latest ACS estimate. But like I said, Blacks don't need a majority to elect their own leaders since Latinos vote at a much lower rate, and many aren't eligible to vote to begin with.
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Torie
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« Reply #29 on: February 11, 2011, 11:38:20 am »
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Well I have commenced the massive, problematical,  unpredictable and legally complex task of redistricting my own state. I have drawn, tentatively, the first five CD's. CA-51 is 57% Hispanic, CA-45 is 61% Hispanic, CA-53 looks to me like a marginal CD politically, with CA-50 and CA-52 GOP.  CA-53 is all in the City of San Diego, except for picking up upper middle class Anglo Coronado. Because of population constraints, unfortunately CA-50 and 52 need to split some city of San Diego precincts at its far northern end.  

I am not sure what will happen with CA-49 (it is on my map, but at this point, is used just to define the perimeters of CA-50), but it looks to me like it will end up all in Riverside County, with Oceanside and Fallbrook in San Diego County appended to my CD, CA-48 in Orange County (making it an uber GOP CD). So Darryl Issa, who lives in Vista, has been drawn into CA-50. I don't think he will be running against Bilbray in CA-50. He certainly won't be moving to CA-48 to run against my Congressman, John Campbell. So it looks like his only real option is to run against Bono in an all Riverside County CA-49 (since Bono's CA-45 has gone Hispanic - and Dem - on her). That should be an interesting contest. Smiley

So CA-53 has gone from Dem to marginal (that is my guess, although it could be lean Dem), and the Pubbies have lost CA-45. That is my tally sheet so far: Pubbies minus .5 seats. I am guessing the Pubbie body count when finished will be around 3 seats, plus or minus 1 seat. We shall see. It will also be interesting to see how many marginal CD's we come up, with would never be drawn with the mouse clutched in the fingers of a partisan, but probably will this time with the mouse in other hands.  

With this state, the only way to do it I think is to start in one corner of the state and go from there, since otherwise one runs the risk of having to undo what one did before, when one hits a corner, and finds the territory that is left just won't work. And I suspect that in general, one will need to draw the minority CD's first, where they are in play, so one knows what is left for the Anglo CD's. That is why I drew CA-45, before touching CA-49, and drew CA-51 first, just to see if an all San Diego County Hispanic CD could be created, which it can. The Hispanic population in the city of San Diego, and Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, and National City, has really shot up over the last decade. Even Lemon Grove is about 50% Hispanic now, although that city is not in CA-51.

« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 01:23:45 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #30 on: February 11, 2011, 01:11:57 pm »
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Are you using the ACS numbers and thus don't have the partisan data?

Also your CA-44 is a pipe dream. Tongue It should instead take in Perris or Moreno Valley. Smiley

Also Moreno Valley is only 51% Hispanic (ACS numbers), so is it really necessary to draw that appendage?

Edit: Or are those the old districts I am looking at?(noticed you were drawing the 42nd in the same way, which won't happen either, even though it will remain a safe R district)
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 01:24:16 pm by sbane »Logged
Torie
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« Reply #31 on: February 11, 2011, 01:39:42 pm »
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I am using the ACS numbers, sbane, and do not have partisan data, which might be a good idea to in fact not have, since the commission is not supposed to use partisan data. That way, one is less tempted to cheat, although particularly for Socal, I tend to know from memory where the Pubbies and Dems are, anyway, but whatever.

I have only drawn the 5 CD's so far, and CA-44 is not one of them (nor is CA-49, although it looks like I drew it, since it has the right population, but  all the white space on my map representing the Anglo zone of the Coachella Valley needs to be filled in, and CA-49 is probably the CD that will do that). I just have the software draw the existing CD's first, since it makes it easier then to redraw the lines, because the existing lines sometimes follow municipal boundaries, and sometimes follow ethnic boundaries, so it speeds the process up (it is also important, where partisans draw the lines, since one needs to be aware of who is getting new territory, and who is losing it, but that consideration does not obtain here obviously). And yes, Moreno Valley is the only Hispanic zone within reach of CA-45 really. It is otherwise boxed in by Anglo zones. Plus Highway 60, I believe it is, which goes through the Moreno Valley, and then over the "badlands" into Beaumont, does create a nice connection. I drive through the Moreno Valley to get to the desert from OC. I am also trying to avoid splitting counties, and cities, unless really necessary.

In any event, the good news is that this may be Issa's last term potentially. Tongue
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 01:42:13 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #32 on: February 11, 2011, 02:22:42 pm »
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This is lovely. Thank you for doing and sharing.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #33 on: February 11, 2011, 02:30:18 pm »
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Tough work, especially since it's non-partisan.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #34 on: February 11, 2011, 02:43:03 pm »
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I can't even get California to work on my computer; it takes forever to load, is incredibly slow to move around, and generally causes my browser to lock up.
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Torie
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« Reply #35 on: February 11, 2011, 03:07:45 pm »
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I can't even get California to work on my computer; it takes forever to load, is incredibly slow to move around, and generally causes my browser to lock up.

Yes, it's hell, but for some reason, once you get a map up and running, and then saved on your computer, it opens up faster and works better thereafter. Don't ask me why. In addition, the loading factor just to move your map on the screen is slow, and sometimes your CA map just won't move, but instead you find that you are coloring precincts in the wrong color. So now, I make sure that the CD where my mouse is doing the drag, matches which CD button is pushed, so an unwanted color is not introduced. Such is life.

It is also a pity that the map on Bradlee's 2.0 software (which has the updated population numbers  - critical for a state like California), does not show the municipal boundaries (which are critical often to follow given the CA law), so you have to have up a second map with boundaries, and trace by the look of the eye, and since the 2.0 map with the updated intra county population figures has block groups rather than precincts, sometimes the lines of the two maps do not match exactly, and well, you get the idea.

This endeavor is clearly not for timid or lazy. Smiley
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #36 on: February 11, 2011, 04:42:48 pm »
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i noticed that Mary Bono's district had the most excess population. The eastern part of the district I absorbed into CA 51.
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Torie
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« Reply #37 on: February 11, 2011, 05:36:51 pm »
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OK, two more CD's have been drawn, CA-49, and my own CA-48.

47% of CA-49 is from Issa's old CA-49, and 53% is from Bono's CA-45.  That should be barn burner of a contest I think between the two of them, both ideologically and geographically. However, storm clouds are on the horizon. First, my Congressman Campbell has been drawn out of his CD. He lives in Irvine. Second, the only town that used to be in CA-48 was mine - Laguna Niguel. Other than that, CA-48 has all new territory. So either Campbell moves to Laguna Niguel, and runs in a new CD, or he runs in a primary, probably against Dan Rorbacher, whose CD is going to lose most of its LA County salient. The storm cloud is that Issa may move to Oceanside, and run - and win - in my CA-48, and become my new congressman. About 40% of CA-48 used to be in CA-49.  The balance was in CA-44, the Calvert CD jutting all the way down from Riverside to San Clemente (ludicrous but it was), and CA-42. The F'ee in other words, may well be Campbell and not Issa. What have I wrought? Sad

As to the stats of CA-48, it became at once more GOP and much poorer than it now is. It lost uber high income Newport Beach and Laguna Beach, generally upper middle class Irvine, and some upper middle class to wealthy territory in the inland hills. Suddenly my town of Laguna Niguel becomes the third wealthiest town in the CD, after gated Coto de Caza, and San Juan Capistrano, I suspect.

I spent about 10 minutes trying to figure out if one census tract was in Laguna Beach (and thus in CA something or other (right now it is white space), or Laguna Niguel, and thus in CA-48. After turning down the opacity to next to nothing, and then searching for where the 1200 in population was (most of the census block/tract is the unpopulated canyon between Laguna Niguel and Laguna Beach down which Aliso Creek goes to the sea in south Laguna Beach that is a park and unincorporated territory), I finally found out where the folks lived. The tract slipped over the top of the ridge of the canyon and into my own precinct, taking in the homes at or near the top of the hill on the Laguna Niguel side of the canyon; I am one of the 1200! Fancy that. I could not recognize my very own census tract. Tongue

So far, I think there really is but one map to draw, and I have drawn it. I would be surprised if the commission does anything that is materially different. Later on there will be key choices to make, that might be more of a tossup, which then means I guess, drawing alternative maps. But not so far in my opinion.




« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 06:10:29 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #38 on: February 11, 2011, 06:09:49 pm »
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What do you plan to do with Irvine? Why not put Campbell in that district and perhaps f over Gary Miller. He already lives in Diamond Bar...just draw him into an LA County district. And north OC goes to Royce obviously.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 06:11:35 pm by sbane »Logged
Torie
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« Reply #39 on: February 11, 2011, 06:24:06 pm »
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What do you plan to do with Irvine?

Don't know, but depending on how the population plays out, the Dana Rohrbacher CD, CA-46, will probably end up primarily as a coastal CD running from Laguna Beach up perhaps into Naples Island and Belmont Shores and Heights in Long Beach (high income Anglo, although with lots of gays and it leans Dem I think), taking in Irvine (and probably Lake Forest too, unless Irvine ends up being split, which I doubt), Newport Beach, Costa Mesa (maybe excluding some Hispanic precincts, the Anglo portion of Fountain Valley, Huntington Beach, Seal Beach, Los Alamitos. I need to figure out what to do with the Asians (primarily Vietnamese) in the North OC zone as well. Dump them all into Loretta Sanchez's CD, or does she need to go elsewhere to take in more Hispanics, so that the Asians join the Anglo zone?

The other issue is just which CD in OC on the north or north eastern OC boundary crosses over into another county to equalize population. It will be only one, unless there is a good reason to make it more (which would probably only be due to the constraints in generating majority (or close to it), minority CD's).
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 06:27:20 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #40 on: February 11, 2011, 06:34:35 pm »
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What do you plan to do with Irvine? Why not put Campbell in that district and perhaps f over Gary Miller. He already lives in Diamond Bar...just draw him into an LA County district. And north OC goes to Royce obviously.

I am trying to do what the commission will do, and they by law cannot care a wit about what happens to incumbents. So doing splits and the like for partisan or incumbency reasons, are out. Diamond Bar might be slated to join an Asian CD that runs from there to Monterey Park, sucking up Alhambra, San Marino (yes, Mr. Drier, San Marino is Asian now and you can't have it anymore), and so forth.
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« Reply #41 on: February 11, 2011, 06:46:04 pm »
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Bilbray will probably end up with a less favorable district, something encompassing the coast, close to the 1990 version, but expanded out a bit more. Davis would be pushed inland.
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« Reply #42 on: February 11, 2011, 06:58:54 pm »
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Why not add some of Royce's western appendage into Rohrbacher's district (but no municipal splits of course), and have it take in everything up to Laguna Beach by the coast, but leave Irvine, Lake Forest and anything else to it's east you have left for Campbell's district. Then Campbell's district takes in Tustin, Orange, Villa Park and as much of the Anaheim hills as necessary to get enough population. Then the rest of OC goes to Royce, and perhaps extending into Chino Hills and even Chino depending on how much more population is needed. I definitely think the map could be drawn that way. I certainly don't see CA-40 surviving in it's current u-shaped form.
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Torie
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« Reply #43 on: February 11, 2011, 07:17:37 pm »
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Why not add some of Royce's western appendage into Rohrbacher's district (but no municipal splits of course), and have it take in everything up to Laguna Beach by the coast, but leave Irvine, Lake Forest and anything else to it's east you have left for Campbell's district. Then Campbell's district takes in Tustin, Orange, Villa Park and as much of the Anaheim hills as necessary to get enough population. Then the rest of OC goes to Royce, and perhaps extending into Chino Hills and even Chino depending on how much more population is needed. I definitely think the map could be drawn that way. I certainly don't see CA-40 surviving in it's current u-shaped form.

Well assuming that the die is cast that CA-48 dips into San Diego County, taking up close to 300,000 residents, that leaves 375,000 or so folks to include  in CA-48 in OC (actually it is 420,000 - just checked by whiting out the OC portion of CA-48). Irvine has about 218,000 folks. How is this going to work again? You have but 200,000 people, to use to connect San Diego County to Irvine. How can one do that, and make it look kosher - meaning that there is a reason to do it, other than save Campbell's ass?  I might add that OC south of the Y really is a community of interest, with the residents thinking of themselves that way, including inter alia, in general hating Newport Beach (who wanted, inter alia, to put a f'ing airport in our backyard, flying right over my house).

The commission will hear testimony saying exactly that.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 07:29:07 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #44 on: February 11, 2011, 07:24:52 pm »
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I would keep CA-48 as you have drawn it. I would just give Campbell another district.
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Torie
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« Reply #45 on: February 11, 2011, 07:31:29 pm »
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I would keep CA-48 as you have drawn it. I would just give Campbell another district.

Whom do you propose to be the Pubbie F'ee in OC then? No, Loretta Sanchez isn't going anywhere. Tongue
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« Reply #46 on: February 11, 2011, 08:02:41 pm »
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Gary Miller of course! Isn't a majority of his CD within OC?

Edit: Are Mission Viejo and Rancho Santa Margarita in your new CD-48?
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 08:17:00 pm by sbane »Logged
Torie
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« Reply #47 on: February 11, 2011, 08:21:22 pm »
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Gary Miller of course! Isn't a majority of his CD within OC?

Edit: Are Mission Viejo and Rancho Santa Margarita in your new CD-48?

Yes. Everything south of the Y, except Laguna Beach, Lake Forest, Laguna Woods (aka Seizure World coined by John McCain actually), and a bit of Laguna Hills cut off from the rest of Laguna Hills by Seizure World, is in CA-48.

Yes, CA-42 is probably slated for extinction I now see (amazingly enough, I was not aware just how F'ed up the CD's were in OC until just today - I just thought of Campbell, Rohrbacher, Royce, Sanchez, and a bit of south OC being in CA-49, and called it a day, not aware that Miller - and Calvert of all people, were also feeding at the OC Pubbie trough). There will be but one Pubbie CD in the San Gabriel Valley, not two. Milller and Drier will probably need to chat. By the way, I just found a fantastic nationwide CD map utility. You might wish to bookmark it.

I doubt if it will fly to separate Irvine from Newport Beach however. They are joined at the hip - as you well know. But we will have to see how the population numbers play out. Maybe Irvine does need to be split, and Campbell's home will be on the inland side. But if he lives in Turtle Rock - forget it. Campbell had a car dealership, so I doubt he lives in Woodbridge, or some lesser SES zone in Irvine.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 08:46:21 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #48 on: February 11, 2011, 08:27:56 pm »
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I merged Miller's portion with Royce, while bringing Issa up a bit more. Rohrabacher can stay completely within Orange County and Sanchez keeps a majority Hispanic district.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 08:33:04 pm by Estes Kefauver »Logged
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« Reply #49 on: February 11, 2011, 08:35:06 pm »
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One needs to start at the Mexican border and move north to do this map stuff. That will tell you exactly how much of OC will go to a CD that is also in San Diego County. The Commission is just not going to do that ridiculous appending of Imperial County to San Diego. That is DOA - especially since an Hispanic CD can be carved out of south San Diego, and another inland taking in Imperial County. And it makes no sense for CA-49 to go into Riverside County, given the Coachella Valley chop that is necessary to create an Hispanic CD, an Hispanic CD that might well be dictated by the VRA in fact.

« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 08:43:58 pm by Torie »Logged

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