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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: California  (Read 29326 times)
Torie
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« Reply #75 on: February 13, 2011, 01:26:33 pm »
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How Hispanic is your CA-45? If there's one thing that stands out about Imperial, it's that it's the non metropolitan part of SoCal... if it doesn't belong with National City and Imperial Beach, it belongs with LA suburbs even less. So... if the populations and hispanic percentages at all allow it... why not take it further north into the Mojave Desert and Death Valley?

I dont think there is enough population up north in the Mohave desert for a district, not to mention a Hispanic district. A better way to draw the map would be to give perris to ca-45 and save "mo vall" for ca 44. It looks cleaner and perris is even less of a la suburb than the brown valley.

That assumes CA-44 is going to be an Hispanic CD. Maybe. Perris has far fewer people than the Moreno Valley. Still a switch out might make sense. We shall see. CA-45 can't really go much less Hispanic, without it become a chimera, given all those illegals. And the thing about the Moreno Valley, is that probably most of the Hispanics there are legal - it is in general lower middle class territory. 
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« Reply #76 on: February 13, 2011, 03:46:47 pm »
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How Hispanic is your CA-45? If there's one thing that stands out about Imperial, it's that it's the non metropolitan part of SoCal... if it doesn't belong with National City and Imperial Beach, it belongs with LA suburbs even less. So... if the populations and hispanic percentages at all allow it... why not take it further north into the Mojave Desert and Death Valley?

I dont think there is enough population up north in the Mohave desert for a district, not to mention a Hispanic district. A better way to draw the map would be to give perris to ca-45 and save "mo vall" for ca 44. It looks cleaner and perris is even less of a la suburb than the brown valley.

That assumes CA-44 is going to be an Hispanic CD. Maybe. Perris has far fewer people than the Moreno Valley. Still a switch out might make sense. We shall see. CA-45 can't really go much less Hispanic, without it become a chimera, given all those illegals. And the thing about the Moreno Valley, is that probably most of the Hispanics there are legal - it is in general lower middle class territory. 

CA-44 won't be Hispanic majority if it consists of Corona, Norco, Riverside, Moreno Valley and the unincorporated northwest part of Riverside County. Though it would be something like 45-48% Hispanic, so perhaps two IE Hispanic districts will be drawn, with one consisting of a mix of Riverside and SBD County.
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« Reply #77 on: February 13, 2011, 03:52:01 pm »
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If you start in the Bay Area, this is what I get:



I think these districts make a lot of sense - obviously you have the SF district, then a blue-collar(-ish) peninsula district in cyan (41% white, 31% Asian, 21% Hispanic).  Next I drew the blue-gray district to be 55% Asian.  Fitting nicely around that is the pink district, which takes the heart of Silicon Valley from Menlo Park to Santa Clara and Los Gatos - very wealthy (other than East Palo Alto), 54% white, 22% Asian, 17% Hispanic.  The light green district takes in what's left of Santa Clara County, which essentially is all of the heavily Hispanic parts, plus some extras - not enough for a majority, but it's 41% Hispanic, 35% white, 19% Asian.  The coastal tan district goes down to Monterrey & Big Sur - it makes a lot of sense to stick Half Moon Bay in there rather than stick other parts of Santa Clara county in with a Central Valley district.  

The yellow district connects as much of the minority areas as possible in the East Bay without being ridiculous: 30 white 22 black  20 Asian 24 Hispanic. One East Bay district has to go inland, due to the numbers, so I made it the teal one.  

I don't think that an Asian district that stretches from Cupertino to Hayward is more reasonable than a number of roughly 30% Asian districts that are more geographically compact. Certainly Asians have no trouble getting elected.
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« Reply #78 on: February 13, 2011, 04:00:26 pm »
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Are Asians even technically covered under the VRA Act - the way it's written? I wasn't sure, I had to look it up. It appears they are.
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« Reply #79 on: February 13, 2011, 06:24:14 pm »

Are Asians even technically covered under the VRA Act - the way it's written? I wasn't sure, I had to look it up. It appears they are.

Asians are a covered minority under the VRA. However, to challenge a map under section 2, they would typically try to show they meet the Gingles test. The three parts are: a compact area including over 50% VAP for the single minority; tendency for block voting for a candidate of that minority's choice; tendency for block voting by the majority for a candidate other than the minority's choice. If Asians vote like Whites in the same area the test will fail.

An unresolved question is when the interests of two different minority groups collide. For example there might be an area where there are large numbers of Asians and Hispanics and there are sufficient of both for separate districts. A court in the coming decade may find that if their voting patterns are sufficiently different, there may be a section 2 claim for one of the minorities if it didn't get a district, but could have without diminishing the other qualified minority.

In any case the real question will come down to the Commission's view on communities of interest as Torie has suggested. If the Commission finds that a group of nearby Asian minorities constitutes a community of interest to be kept intact, then they may draw that district. My link towards the beginning of the thread for a map I made last year assumed such a conclusion by the Commission, so I drew one in Silicon Valley and another in San Gabriel.
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« Reply #80 on: February 14, 2011, 11:29:01 am »
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If Asians vote like Whites in the same area the test will fail.

I would guess in the CA-42 that I drew, that the Asians vote about 10% more Dem than the Anglos. Does that qualify as a sufficient differential?  The VRA would still not apply even if that qualifies as a sufficient differential, I don't think, because as has been noted, Anglos have little or no problem voting for Asians. A GOP Korean won CA-42 I think under the old lines, and a Dem Asian, represents much of the new CA-42 as I drew it in a less Asian incarnation.
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« Reply #81 on: February 14, 2011, 12:23:54 pm »
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Can we invoke the 'it would be cool' clause? Please?
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« Reply #82 on: February 15, 2011, 03:20:18 pm »
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One needs to start at the Mexican border and move north to do this map stuff. That will tell you exactly how much of OC will go to a CD that is also in San Diego County. The Commission is just not going to do that ridiculous appending of Imperial County to San Diego. That is DOA - especially since an Hispanic CD can be carved out of south San Diego, and another inland taking in Imperial County. And it makes no sense for CA-49 to go into Riverside County, given the Coachella Valley chop that is necessary to create an Hispanic CD, an Hispanic CD that might well be dictated by the VRA in fact.

If you do a subapportionment, it will be easier when going north and west from LA and San Bernadino:

Based on July 2009 estimates:

San Francisco Bay: 10.011 (8 counties, including Solano and Sonoma, but not Napa).  You can start at the Golden Gate and go CCW.

Far North: 1.010 (Colusa, Del Norte, Glenn, Humboldt, Lake, Lassen, Mendocino, Modoc, Shasta, Siskiyou, Tehama, Trinity)

North Valley: 1.033 (Butte, Napa, Sutter, Yolo, Yuba)

North Mountains: 0.984 (Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, Sierra)

Sacramento: 2.009

San Joaquin: 0.968

Total to here is 16.015

Central Coast: 2.001 (Santa Cruz to Santa Barbara, including San Benito).

Modesto-Merced: 1.084 (Merced, Stanislaus)

Central Valley: 1.912 (Alpine, Calaveras, Fresno, Kings, Madera, Mariposa, Tuolumne)

These two will need to be handled together.   You could split between Modesto and Merced, but you would have to come pretty far south (to Madera) to get enough population, so it will be better to trim off some more remote areas of Merced and or Stanislaus).  You can draw a district right around Fresno (city), so you end up with a leftovers district.  If the commission decides to draw a Hispanic majority district, then you just draw the other two districts with what is left.  But I'm not sure that they will, since you still have large numbers of Hispanics in the "white" districts.

Total to here: 21.012

Central Leftovers: 1.817 (Inyo, Kern, Mono, Tulare)

Total to here: 22,829.

Lancaster and Palmdale together are too large to make up the deficit to get to 23 seats, so they either get split, or you try to piece together 120,000 people from the desert areas of San Bernadino Riverside, but there may not be enough population.  Kern has enough for its own district, but Tulare has enough for 3/5 of a district.  So Kern may get chopped up, but this could end up being in Bakersfield.  Or you end up with Visalia in a district with 29 Palms and Barstow.

Southern Coast: 23.992 (Ventura to San Diego). 

Incidentally, this is a loss of almost one whole district.

Ventura: 1.151
Los Angeles: 14.121
Orange: 4.340
San Diego: 4.379

So the LA-Orange district is about 1/4 in LA and the Orange-San Diego district is 3/5 in Orange.

Inland Empire: 6.180 (includes Imperial).

If the excess goes to Kern, then this is 6 districts, and would argue against significant border crossings between Los Angles-San Bernardino; Orange-Riverside; or San Diego-Riverside.
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« Reply #83 on: February 15, 2011, 03:33:47 pm »
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Why shouldn't Imperial County be appended to San Diego County?  It would seem to have very little in common with the Palm Springs area and more major transportation ties to San Diego County.  Does the new California law require racist gerrymandering be considered before all other considerations be taken into account?
Salton Sea is partially in Riverside County, and runs directly into Coachella Valley.

That direct transportation link takes you into El Cajon which means that you end up with Imperial in a suburban San Diego district.  You can't actually get from Imperial County to Chula Vista except by using the road along the border fence.
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« Reply #84 on: February 15, 2011, 05:58:47 pm »
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Great "travelogue" jimtex, and I seem so far to be on the right track. You are exactly right that CA-48 that I drew is three fifths in OC, and two fifths in SD.
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« Reply #85 on: February 15, 2011, 06:10:18 pm »
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I think it might be better to give Napa County to the north coast district and give Glenn, Colusa, Tehama, Lassen and Modoc Counties to the north valley district. Or give Lassen and Modoc to the mountain district, and try to equalize population in the valley.

Just drew it. The north valley district lacks just 6,000 people, which it can get by dipping into some farmland or small town in a neighboring county.
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« Reply #86 on: February 15, 2011, 06:52:18 pm »
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This is how I think the north will be drawn. Napa County is more similar to the coastal areas than it is to the central valley. Makes sense to include it in this district. The only area in the district that might not fit in is Redding, but one thing about Redding is that there is not much farming close to the city. You have to go south of Red Bluff before you really see a lot of farm areas. In that sense the 2nd as I have drawn it preserves that community of interest. The only area that doesn't fit into that district would be parts of Yolo County. But even that County has a lot of areas that are similar to the rest of the district. And Yolo County is certainly considered a part of the Central Valley, something that is not true of Napa County.
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« Reply #87 on: February 15, 2011, 07:12:02 pm »
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You have to consider how surrounding counties will be affected, too. Most notably, Marin and Sonoma Counties are more than one district together but are isolated from the rest of the state by your map. (I seriously doubt they would be connected across bridges to SF or Richmond.)
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« Reply #88 on: February 15, 2011, 07:32:03 pm »
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A district from San Francisco would only need to pick up about 25,000 people from Marin. Sausalito, Tiburon and Marin City would be the only Marin cities in that district.
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« Reply #89 on: February 15, 2011, 08:28:06 pm »
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A neater solution might put American Canyon (which really belongs with Vallejo anyway) in with whatever district Solano County goes in while taking some parts of northern Sonoma County in CA-01.
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« Reply #90 on: February 15, 2011, 09:18:44 pm »
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A neater solution might put American Canyon (which really belongs with Vallejo anyway) in with whatever district Solano County goes in while taking some parts of northern Sonoma County in CA-01.

Yeah, that's probably better than crossing the Golden Gate.
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« Reply #91 on: February 15, 2011, 10:23:53 pm »
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I think it might be better to give Napa County to the north coast district and give Glenn, Colusa, Tehama, Lassen and Modoc Counties to the north valley district. Or give Lassen and Modoc to the mountain district, and try to equalize population in the valley.

Just drew it. The north valley district lacks just 6,000 people, which it can get by dipping into some farmland or small town in a neighboring county.
I started out using the regions that the audit board had used in selecting members of the redistricting commission, which includes, Sonoma, Napa, and Solano.  It turned out that Napa had the right population to get the Bay Area to 10 seats.  It also happens that Sonoma-Marin is pretty close to the right size (a little high, so you can take a little excess and add it to Solano, and not really bypass Napa.

I'm pretty sure that I had Napa in a north coast district, and then moved it out.  I'm pretty sure that it has to do with Sacramento being perfect for 2 districts, and the foothill district which is really a Sacramento suburban district not having to come so far north.  It was probably when I realized that Yolo bordered on Napa that I decided that it wasn't too horrible.

So it was definitely a shift I made later on.
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« Reply #92 on: February 15, 2011, 10:39:28 pm »
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You have to consider how surrounding counties will be affected, too. Most notably, Marin and Sonoma Counties are more than one district together but are isolated from the rest of the state by your map. (I seriously doubt they would be connected across bridges to SF or Richmond.)
But not very much (legislative district close). 

Solano and Contra Costa together have enough for about 2 districts, a little more.  I'd probably start in the east of Contra Costa, and then include a narrow connector to get to the bridges to Vallejo.  The whole district in Contra Costa might be kind of ugly going from Richmond inland.  And they might ignore counties at the point, so you could have two districts crossing between Alameda and Contra Costa.
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« Reply #93 on: February 15, 2011, 10:50:17 pm »
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A district from San Francisco would only need to pick up about 25,000 people from Marin. Sausalito, Tiburon and Marin City would be the only Marin cities in that district.
That might work.  I had originally not considered going across the Golden Gate, because most of the population in Marin is further north, in the San Rafael area.  My thinking was that the only population near the bridge is in Sausalito and Tiburon and the like.
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« Reply #94 on: February 15, 2011, 10:50:37 pm »
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You have to consider how surrounding counties will be affected, too. Most notably, Marin and Sonoma Counties are more than one district together but are isolated from the rest of the state by your map. (I seriously doubt they would be connected across bridges to SF or Richmond.)
But not very much (legislative district close).  

Solano and Contra Costa together have enough for about 2 districts, a little more.  I'd probably start in the east of Contra Costa, and then include a narrow connector to get to the bridges to Vallejo.  The whole district in Contra Costa might be kind of ugly going from Richmond inland.  And they might ignore counties at the point, so you could have two districts crossing between Alameda and Contra Costa.

There are two options with the Solano district. Either give the inland areas of Contra Costa County along Hwy 4 to it or continue along I-80 to the Alameda county line. It would also need to take in Martinez to get enough population if you continue down I-80.
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« Reply #95 on: February 15, 2011, 10:52:46 pm »
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A district from San Francisco would only need to pick up about 25,000 people from Marin. Sausalito, Tiburon and Marin City would be the only Marin cities in that district.
That might work.  I had originally not considered going across the Golden Gate, because most of the population in Marin is further north, in the San Rafael area.  My thinking was that the only population near the bridge is in Sausalito and Tiburon and the like.

Sausalito, Tiburon and Marin City would be enough. Another way is to split Sonoma County and give enough of the rural areas to CD-1 to make a district fit in Sonoma and Marin. I don't know which is more likely.
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« Reply #96 on: February 16, 2011, 12:34:19 am »
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I think water continuity might be something the commission chooses to avoid when it comes to San Francisco County. If you compact the Silicon Valley districts just right, you leave enough of San Mateo County available for the San Francisco district to scoop up.
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« Reply #97 on: February 18, 2011, 10:48:35 pm »
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i for one think that Gary Miller needs to be drawn out of his seat. He was first elected in 98 in what was then a marginal district in LA County. In 2001, they decided to protect him by gluing his home of Diamond Bar to the most republican precincts from Chris Cox and Ron Packard's districts. How does he thank the redistricting people? By acting like a corrupt fatcat.
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« Reply #98 on: February 19, 2011, 12:16:10 am »
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A neater solution might put American Canyon (which really belongs with Vallejo anyway) in with whatever district Solano County goes in while taking some parts of northern Sonoma County in CA-01.

Yeah, that's probably better than crossing the Golden Gate.

Mark Leno's district crosses the Golden Gate. It's not a mortal sin.
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« Reply #99 on: February 19, 2011, 06:11:00 am »

A neater solution might put American Canyon (which really belongs with Vallejo anyway) in with whatever district Solano County goes in while taking some parts of northern Sonoma County in CA-01.

Yeah, that's probably better than crossing the Golden Gate.

Mark Leno's district crosses the Golden Gate. It's not a mortal sin.

But was that more to suit legislators, or due to real communities of interest? With the commission in charge, districts designed to keep incumbents happy may not fare so well.
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