US House Redistricting: California

[Senator Sbane]

Yeah, drier has a pretty ridiculous district as well. I mean Burbank to Upland? Santa Ana with Newport Beach?

[freepcrusher]

what is with all that yellow sh**t? Its pretty annoying.

[freepcrusher]

anyways in Orange County:

Royce's district probably stays the same. It cuts off some marginal areas in the SW part of the district but also adds Anaheim. It looks a lot like the 39th district in the 1980s. He may have to face off against Loretta Sanchez. 

John Campbell's district gets even more safe as it adds in Rancho Santa Margarita and Cota de Caza.

Rohrabacher's district is probably down to an R+2. Although it adds 58% McCain Newport Beach, it also adds 65% Obama Santa Ana.


I also notice how some precincts in Orange County are kidnapped into LA County. It probably makes Linda Sanchez's district less safe, but she should be okay.

Gary Miller of course is pretty much DOA as his district is now majority hispanic.

[Senator Sbane]

Gary Miller will be in that Asian district, no? It will be hard for him to hold on to that one. I am guessing Judy Chu also runs here?

As for Loretta, she will probably lose in all of those OC districts. Those districts cut the Hispanic population in half while taking care to leave the Vietnamese areas whole.

[krazen1211]

Gary Miller will be in that Asian district, no? It will be hard for him to hold on to that one. I am guessing Judy Chu also runs here?

As for Loretta, she will probably lose in all of those OC districts. Those districts cut the Hispanic population in half while taking care to leave the Vietnamese areas whole.

Well, she probably shouldn't have based the Vietnamese for trying to take her seat. They just went ahead and did it.

Probably a VRA violation though.

[Senator Sbane]

Gary Miller will be in that Asian district, no? It will be hard for him to hold on to that one. I am guessing Judy Chu also runs here?

As for Loretta, she will probably lose in all of those OC districts. Those districts cut the Hispanic population in half while taking care to leave the Vietnamese areas whole.

Well, she probably shouldn't have based the Vietnamese for trying to take her seat. They just went ahead and did it.

Probably a VRA violation though.

Even if this wasn't a VRA protected district, joining Santa Ana to the coast district would be ridiculous. Rather I would have have put Santa Ana in with Tustin, Costa Mesa and the Vietnamese cities like Garden Grove and Westminster. That might actually be Hispanic majority and would set up for interesting Hispanic Democrat vs Vietnamese Republican matchups. Much preferable to putting in working class cities with the coast.

Of course Anaheim will most probably be split and the heavily Hispanic parts get put in the Santa Ana district.

[Senator X]

What other incumbents are in trouble under these maps?

[Senator Sbane]

Calvert won't win in that Riverside district, I don't think. Both Costa and Cardoza might be in trouble.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Guys, these maps are just rough sketches from the commission to the actual map drawers. It's way too early to draw any conclusions.

[The Head Beagle]

The web site says the first round of actual maps will be posted June 10.

[Dgov]

That looks really tough for Dreier, Issa, Loretta Sanchez, and Costa.

Why is Fresno still carved up?

The requirements of the comission were to create districts by income ( I think), so the realtively wealthly White parts should be cut from the Barrio Hispanic parts.

[Torie]

These maps look very odd to me, almost shocking. What on earth are they doing?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

These maps look very odd to me, almost shocking. What on earth are they doing?

They're very rough drafts, basically just initial instructions from the commission to the actual map drawers. The first real draft map is supposed to be released on the 10th.

[jimrtex]

These maps look very odd to me, almost shocking. What on earth are they doing?

It was pretty obvious based on the commission makeup that race would be an important factor in drawing districts.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Maps come out today.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like they'll be posted here:

http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/maps-first-drafts.html

Keep in mind this is still a first draft. The second draft will be released July 1, with the final maps on September 15.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They're up. They've also posted shapefiles, so maybe someone GIS-savvy could get some data on them.

[Vasall des Midas]

Kay, the North Coast and Yuba districts surprised me. Haven't looked at SoCal yet - probably would misread the LA maps anyhow.

[Vasall des Midas]

Fairly conservative in a number of places - the R sink in northeast LA County (hugging the south slope of the hills) stays, Filner's district stays...

[Verily]

Anyone want to calculate the partisanship of that Santa Rosa-to-Marysville abomination? Must be safely Democratic given that Sonoma County has to be around half of the district (with a lot in Napa and Lake as well), but still...

[Verily]

Fairly conservative in a number of places - the R sink in northeast LA County (hugging the south slope of the hills) stays, Filner's district stays...

No, the new south slope of the hills district is very much not an R vote sink. It's a Democratic seat, probably solidly (maybe over 60% Obama). They put Altadena, most of Pasadena, and Burbank in there. It's good-bye, David Dreier if this map happens.

Filner's district I'm surprised survived. I thought they'd attach Imperial County to Palm Springs, which is a much more natural connection.

Also, there is no way that Orange County map is surviving a court challenge.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Filner's district is majority-Hispanic. Unless they could draw a cleaner majority-Hispanic district, they couldn't really touch it.

[Verily]

But it was possible to create a majority Hispanic seat in San Diego without Imperial County AND use Imperial County to create another majority Hispanic seat in Riverside County (which they didn't do). And the OC map shows how little respect they had for the VRA anyway, as they ripped apart Loretta Sanchez's seat and cracked the OC Hispanics across three districts.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dave Wasserman opines:

First CA impression: Dems +4. Gallegly (R), Dreier (R), Miller (R), Bilbray (R) lose out, Loretta Sanchez (D) keeps winnable district

DKE thinks Ed Royce may be in trouble as well. Also, Pete Stark's district has been dismantled. They should have some partisan data computed fairly soon (perhaps later today, perhaps by Monday), since they did the same quickly with Texas.

[Verily]

Bilbray's seat is more competitive, but he could win reelection. Sanchez absolutely cannot win any of the OC seats, not sure why anyone would think otherwise. (She might have been able to if she weren't so antagonistic towards the Vietnamese, but as-is she's toast.) Gallegly, Miller and Dreier do indeed definitely lose on that map.