US House Redistricting: California

[Torie]

The GOP will lose seats in CA. I doubt it will be that many (given the Dem trend in  California in the last decade, what was once a pretty square incumbent protection deal, became in effect a GOP gerrymander - not way out there - call it a GOP gerrymander light to medium). The issue is how many new majority minority CD's the commission wants to create, and there will be a lot of pressure to maximize them, particularly if it helps the Pubbies as a side effect. It will be a complex exercise to get a handle on what the choices of the commission really are, given the very tight constraints under the new law as to how districts are drawn. It would probably take me a solid week to even begin to get a handle on it. It is that complicated.

[Torie]

Congress will be a better place without Calvert's fat corrupt ass in it in any event.

[Torie]

I don't know the terrain well enough up there yet, and how the minority-majority thing will impact it.

[Torie]

Well I have commenced the massive, problematical,  unpredictable and legally complex task of redistricting my own state. I have drawn, tentatively, the first five CD's. CA-51 is 57% Hispanic, CA-45 is 61% Hispanic, CA-53 looks to me like a marginal CD politically, with CA-50 and CA-52 GOP.  CA-53 is all in the City of San Diego, except for picking up upper middle class Anglo Coronado. Because of population constraints, unfortunately CA-50 and 52 need to split some city of San Diego precincts at its far northern end.  

I am not sure what will happen with CA-49 (it is on my map, but at this point, is used just to define the perimeters of CA-50), but it looks to me like it will end up all in Riverside County, with Oceanside and Fallbrook in San Diego County appended to my CD, CA-48 in Orange County (making it an uber GOP CD). So Darryl Issa, who lives in Vista, has been drawn into CA-50. I don't think he will be running against Bilbray in CA-50. He certainly won't be moving to CA-48 to run against my Congressman, John Campbell. So it looks like his only real option is to run against Bono in an all Riverside County CA-49 (since Bono's CA-45 has gone Hispanic - and Dem - on her). That should be an interesting contest.

So CA-53 has gone from Dem to marginal (that is my guess, although it could be lean Dem), and the Pubbies have lost CA-45. That is my tally sheet so far: Pubbies minus .5 seats. I am guessing the Pubbie body count when finished will be around 3 seats, plus or minus 1 seat. We shall see. It will also be interesting to see how many marginal CD's we come up, with would never be drawn with the mouse clutched in the fingers of a partisan, but probably will this time with the mouse in other hands.  

With this state, the only way to do it I think is to start in one corner of the state and go from there, since otherwise one runs the risk of having to undo what one did before, when one hits a corner, and finds the territory that is left just won't work. And I suspect that in general, one will need to draw the minority CD's first, where they are in play, so one knows what is left for the Anglo CD's. That is why I drew CA-45, before touching CA-49, and drew CA-51 first, just to see if an all San Diego County Hispanic CD could be created, which it can. The Hispanic population in the city of San Diego, and Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, and National City, has really shot up over the last decade. Even Lemon Grove is about 50% Hispanic now, although that city is not in CA-51.

[Torie]

I am using the ACS numbers, sbane, and do not have partisan data, which might be a good idea to in fact not have, since the commission is not supposed to use partisan data. That way, one is less tempted to cheat, although particularly for Socal, I tend to know from memory where the Pubbies and Dems are, anyway, but whatever.

I have only drawn the 5 CD's so far, and CA-44 is not one of them (nor is CA-49, although it looks like I drew it, since it has the right population, but  all the white space on my map representing the Anglo zone of the Coachella Valley needs to be filled in, and CA-49 is probably the CD that will do that). I just have the software draw the existing CD's first, since it makes it easier then to redraw the lines, because the existing lines sometimes follow municipal boundaries, and sometimes follow ethnic boundaries, so it speeds the process up (it is also important, where partisans draw the lines, since one needs to be aware of who is getting new territory, and who is losing it, but that consideration does not obtain here obviously). And yes, Moreno Valley is the only Hispanic zone within reach of CA-45 really. It is otherwise boxed in by Anglo zones. Plus Highway 60, I believe it is, which goes through the Moreno Valley, and then over the "badlands" into Beaumont, does create a nice connection. I drive through the Moreno Valley to get to the desert from OC. I am also trying to avoid splitting counties, and cities, unless really necessary.

In any event, the good news is that this may be Issa's last term potentially.

[Torie]

I can't even get California to work on my computer; it takes forever to load, is incredibly slow to move around, and generally causes my browser to lock up.

Yes, it's hell, but for some reason, once you get a map up and running, and then saved on your computer, it opens up faster and works better thereafter. Don't ask me why. In addition, the loading factor just to move your map on the screen is slow, and sometimes your CA map just won't move, but instead you find that you are coloring precincts in the wrong color. So now, I make sure that the CD where my mouse is doing the drag, matches which CD button is pushed, so an unwanted color is not introduced. Such is life.

It is also a pity that the map on Bradlee's 2.0 software (which has the updated population numbers  - critical for a state like California), does not show the municipal boundaries (which are critical often to follow given the CA law), so you have to have up a second map with boundaries, and trace by the look of the eye, and since the 2.0 map with the updated intra county population figures has block groups rather than precincts, sometimes the lines of the two maps do not match exactly, and well, you get the idea.

This endeavor is clearly not for timid or lazy.

[Torie]

OK, two more CD's have been drawn, CA-49, and my own CA-48.

47% of CA-49 is from Issa's old CA-49, and 53% is from Bono's CA-45.  That should be barn burner of a contest I think between the two of them, both ideologically and geographically. However, storm clouds are on the horizon. First, my Congressman Campbell has been drawn out of his CD. He lives in Irvine. Second, the only town that used to be in CA-48 was mine - Laguna Niguel. Other than that, CA-48 has all new territory. So either Campbell moves to Laguna Niguel, and runs in a new CD, or he runs in a primary, probably against Dan Rorbacher, whose CD is going to lose most of its LA County salient. The storm cloud is that Issa may move to Oceanside, and run - and win - in my CA-48, and become my new congressman. About 40% of CA-48 used to be in CA-49.  The balance was in CA-44, the Calvert CD jutting all the way down from Riverside to San Clemente (ludicrous but it was), and CA-42. The F'ee in other words, may well be Campbell and not Issa. What have I wrought?

As to the stats of CA-48, it became at once more GOP and much poorer than it now is. It lost uber high income Newport Beach and Laguna Beach, generally upper middle class Irvine, and some upper middle class to wealthy territory in the inland hills. Suddenly my town of Laguna Niguel becomes the third wealthiest town in the CD, after gated Coto de Caza, and San Juan Capistrano, I suspect.

I spent about 10 minutes trying to figure out if one census tract was in Laguna Beach (and thus in CA something or other (right now it is white space), or Laguna Niguel, and thus in CA-48. After turning down the opacity to next to nothing, and then searching for where the 1200 in population was (most of the census block/tract is the unpopulated canyon between Laguna Niguel and Laguna Beach down which Aliso Creek goes to the sea in south Laguna Beach that is a park and unincorporated territory), I finally found out where the folks lived. The tract slipped over the top of the ridge of the canyon and into my own precinct, taking in the homes at or near the top of the hill on the Laguna Niguel side of the canyon; I am one of the 1200! Fancy that. I could not recognize my very own census tract.

So far, I think there really is but one map to draw, and I have drawn it. I would be surprised if the commission does anything that is materially different. Later on there will be key choices to make, that might be more of a tossup, which then means I guess, drawing alternative maps. But not so far in my opinion.

[Torie]

What do you plan to do with Irvine?

Don't know, but depending on how the population plays out, the Dana Rohrbacher CD, CA-46, will probably end up primarily as a coastal CD running from Laguna Beach up perhaps into Naples Island and Belmont Shores and Heights in Long Beach (high income Anglo, although with lots of gays and it leans Dem I think), taking in Irvine (and probably Lake Forest too, unless Irvine ends up being split, which I doubt), Newport Beach, Costa Mesa (maybe excluding some Hispanic precincts, the Anglo portion of Fountain Valley, Huntington Beach, Seal Beach, Los Alamitos. I need to figure out what to do with the Asians (primarily Vietnamese) in the North OC zone as well. Dump them all into Loretta Sanchez's CD, or does she need to go elsewhere to take in more Hispanics, so that the Asians join the Anglo zone?

The other issue is just which CD in OC on the north or north eastern OC boundary crosses over into another county to equalize population. It will be only one, unless there is a good reason to make it more (which would probably only be due to the constraints in generating majority (or close to it), minority CD's).

[Torie]

What do you plan to do with Irvine? Why not put Campbell in that district and perhaps f over Gary Miller. He already lives in Diamond Bar...just draw him into an LA County district. And north OC goes to Royce obviously.

I am trying to do what the commission will do, and they by law cannot care a wit about what happens to incumbents. So doing splits and the like for partisan or incumbency reasons, are out. Diamond Bar might be slated to join an Asian CD that runs from there to Monterey Park, sucking up Alhambra, San Marino (yes, Mr. Drier, San Marino is Asian now and you can't have it anymore), and so forth.

[Torie]

Why not add some of Royce's western appendage into Rohrbacher's district (but no municipal splits of course), and have it take in everything up to Laguna Beach by the coast, but leave Irvine, Lake Forest and anything else to it's east you have left for Campbell's district. Then Campbell's district takes in Tustin, Orange, Villa Park and as much of the Anaheim hills as necessary to get enough population. Then the rest of OC goes to Royce, and perhaps extending into Chino Hills and even Chino depending on how much more population is needed. I definitely think the map could be drawn that way. I certainly don't see CA-40 surviving in it's current u-shaped form.

Well assuming that the die is cast that CA-48 dips into San Diego County, taking up close to 300,000 residents, that leaves 375,000 or so folks to include  in CA-48 in OC (actually it is 420,000 - just checked by whiting out the OC portion of CA-48). Irvine has about 218,000 folks. How is this going to work again? You have but 200,000 people, to use to connect San Diego County to Irvine. How can one do that, and make it look kosher - meaning that there is a reason to do it, other than save Campbell's ass?  I might add that OC south of the Y really is a community of interest, with the residents thinking of themselves that way, including inter alia, in general hating Newport Beach (who wanted, inter alia, to put a f'ing airport in our backyard, flying right over my house).

The commission will hear testimony saying exactly that.

[Torie]

I would keep CA-48 as you have drawn it. I would just give Campbell another district.

Whom do you propose to be the Pubbie F'ee in OC then? No, Loretta Sanchez isn't going anywhere.

[Torie]

Gary Miller of course! Isn't a majority of his CD within OC?

Edit: Are Mission Viejo and Rancho Santa Margarita in your new CD-48?

Yes. Everything south of the Y, except Laguna Beach, Lake Forest, Laguna Woods (aka Seizure World coined by John McCain actually), and a bit of Laguna Hills cut off from the rest of Laguna Hills by Seizure World, is in CA-48.

Yes, CA-42 is probably slated for extinction I now see (amazingly enough, I was not aware just how F'ed up the CD's were in OC until just today - I just thought of Campbell, Rohrbacher, Royce, Sanchez, and a bit of south OC being in CA-49, and called it a day, not aware that Miller - and Calvert of all people, were also feeding at the OC Pubbie trough). There will be but one Pubbie CD in the San Gabriel Valley, not two. Milller and Drier will probably need to chat. By the way, I just found a fantastic nationwide CD map utility. You might wish to bookmark it.

I doubt if it will fly to separate Irvine from Newport Beach however. They are joined at the hip - as you well know. But we will have to see how the population numbers play out. Maybe Irvine does need to be split, and Campbell's home will be on the inland side. But if he lives in Turtle Rock - forget it. Campbell had a car dealership, so I doubt he lives in Woodbridge, or some lesser SES zone in Irvine.

[Torie]

One needs to start at the Mexican border and move north to do this map stuff. That will tell you exactly how much of OC will go to a CD that is also in San Diego County. The Commission is just not going to do that ridiculous appending of Imperial County to San Diego. That is DOA - especially since an Hispanic CD can be carved out of south San Diego, and another inland taking in Imperial County. And it makes no sense for CA-49 to go into Riverside County, given the Coachella Valley chop that is necessary to create an Hispanic CD, an Hispanic CD that might well be dictated by the VRA in fact.

[Torie]

Looks reasonable actually, sbane, except I don't like that red snake thing much as a facial matter, without any other thought whatsoever.

In any event, I just go where my mouse leads me, and having not begun to draw anything yet, had no firm as opposed to speculative preconceived notions about central and northern OC. There is indeed a choice between one long coastal CD, and the zebra look that you drew. The fun thing, is that given that it is my own county, I should have some "inside" knowledge" about what the testimony, etc., will be. There is however, a coastal versus inland divide after one gets north of the Y. Different social sets migrate to one or the other, even if they have the same income levels - up to a point. But I don't like dividing cities (yes of course Anaheim will be chopped, and maybe Santa Ana north of 17th St. still, and the far southeastern bit of Santa Ana I notice has some fancy new condos, so it may have gone Anglo/Asian), unless I have a clear reason to do that in my mind (folks are quite city oriented in OC), and that can push the mouse in other ways.

By the way, here is a fun question. Of the 7 CD's that I have drawn so far, which has the lowest Hispanic percentage, and by a clear margin?  No, it's not CA-45. 

[Torie]

Imperial County is more connected to the Coachella Valley than to San Diego. You just drive up the valley from the Mexican border, all irrigated desert with Hispanic farm workers, right up to Indio and La Quinta.  Then the Hispanic work force changes to service personnel for the Anglo geezers living or snow birding in the Coachella Valley. It is all pretty seamless. You have to drive over mountains that are empty to get to the Imperial/Coachella Valley from San Diego. There is basically nothing there other than migrating illegals.  By the way, arguably the Coachella Valley presents one of the most extreme examples of wealth and poverty in the world - side by side. The city of Coachella is a very dreary place. Another little faclet, is that perhaps close to half of CA-45 is below sea level. It would disappear, along with my desert houses, if that little 50 foot high berm created by the Colorado River that keeps the Gulf of California out of the valley, collapsed in an earthquake - perhaps one of the greatest disasters in human memory if it ever occurs. Fancy that.

Do you want Hunter's district, CA-52, to go to the Imperial Valley or something, dropping a bunch of San Diego suburbs?  The Imperial Valley would have been connected to San Diego if necessary to create an Hispanic CD there. It wasn't. It is necessary to create a Coachella Valley Hispanic CD however, one that I think is quite arguably mandated by the VRA. It would almost certainly be litigated, if not drawn.

[Torie]

one idea I had was to draw a "republican depository" district in orange county. It basically takes in all of the CD 42 portion of it (except for La Habra), takes in the most republican areas of CD 40 (Villa Park, city of Orange), and the most republican areas of CD 48 (like Lake Forest). The district probably gave McCain 58 percent,and Bush around 65 percent.

Does the district look fair? And another thing to consider is how easy is it to draw other district around it, once you have also drawn in the VRA mandated district in OC as well. Those things will determine whether the commission has a chance of drawing that district.

I don't think the commission is interested in drawing "Republican depository" CD's, and in any event the GOP members of the commission would veto any such plan, since it among other things would violate the law governing what the commission is supposed to do. Now drawing Anglo depository CD's is another matter.

[Torie]

The next thing I think I need to do, is check out the lay of the land for the minority CD's in LA County. That will set the perimeters as to what I do with the intervening space. Among other things, I need to see if I can draw an Asian CD in the San Gabriel Valley. If I can, that will box OC in along its northern frontier, with the Asians maybe picking up La Habra in OC.

[Torie]

I doubt an Asian district will be required in the bay area, although you can certainly draw it. They don't vote that different from anglos or hispanics.

The issue is whether the commission will want to draw it, and whether the commission hears testimony from Asians who want the CD drawn, and not from Asians who do not. It will be hard to deny Asians their percentage share of CD's (2 or 3), if they push for it.

[Torie]

Well bearing in mind what sbane said (again I think if the Asians push for it, it will be hard for the commission to shut them out), here is what turning CA-42 into an Asian CD (49% so far using old population numbers because that map shows me municipal boundaries, which I can use to trace on the 2.0 software with the updated population numbers), might look like. Whether I will really draw this remains to be seen. The green blob to the west represents a pretty solid set of cities that have a community of interest and will probably all hang together in a final draft map (the Asians have really cleaned out the middle to upper middle class WASPS in much of this portion of the San Gabriel Valley (this is where they primarily hanged out, along with parts of Pasadena and La Canada-Flintridge, with the Jews more oriented to the west) since I was a kid growing up in LA I must say), but the salient to Diamond Bar (even though the whole green swath is heavily Asian - each and every precinct - and there is next to no city splitting), is considerably more questionable.

The issue is what disadvantages this shape of the CD presents down the road vis a vis other CD's and other considerations, and as to that I have no clue yet. In addition, the erosity of the Diamond Bar salient may need to be justified by the VRA to be legal under the CA statute, and this CD is not mandated by the VRA (I need to check the precise language in the CA statute again).

This CD is interesting, because it is but lean Dem I strongly suspect. An Asian Pubbie might win it down the road perhaps.

[Torie]

I've drawn a very similar district on the partisan version before. It's around mid-60s Obama, so somewhere between D+10 and D+15. Diamond Bar and Walnut are only lean D, but Monterey Park, etc. are strongly D.

Did you have San Marino and Arcadia in it?

[Torie]

How Hispanic is your CA-45? If there's one thing that stands out about Imperial, it's that it's the non metropolitan part of SoCal... if it doesn't belong with National City and Imperial Beach, it belongs with LA suburbs even less. So... if the populations and hispanic percentages at all allow it... why not take it further north into the Mojave Desert and Death Valley?

It's 61% Hispanic. The Moreno Valley is not really an LA suburb, and a fair number of folks in Moreno Valley commute to the desert to work. I know that because I have met a fair number of them vis a vis my little construction projects in the desert. Nobody hauls ass from the Imperial County to San Diego to do anything except get out of the heat - and it's a long way. Moving north into San Bernadino County is a county split, and the north Mohave Desert, much less empty Death Valley, has nothing in common with anything that is in CA-45.  I am quite confident that CA-45 will be drawn, as I have drawn it. Plus anything less than 61%, and an Hispanic might not be elected here. If even half of the VAP Hispanics in this CD are citizens, color me amazed. Illegals are here, there and everywhere, in CA-45 as I have drawn it.

[Torie]

How Hispanic is your CA-45? If there's one thing that stands out about Imperial, it's that it's the non metropolitan part of SoCal... if it doesn't belong with National City and Imperial Beach, it belongs with LA suburbs even less. So... if the populations and hispanic percentages at all allow it... why not take it further north into the Mojave Desert and Death Valley?

I dont think there is enough population up north in the Mohave desert for a district, not to mention a Hispanic district. A better way to draw the map would be to give perris to ca-45 and save "mo vall" for ca 44. It looks cleaner and perris is even less of a la suburb than the brown valley.

That assumes CA-44 is going to be an Hispanic CD. Maybe. Perris has far fewer people than the Moreno Valley. Still a switch out might make sense. We shall see. CA-45 can't really go much less Hispanic, without it become a chimera, given all those illegals. And the thing about the Moreno Valley, is that probably most of the Hispanics there are legal - it is in general lower middle class territory. 

[Torie]

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I would guess in the CA-42 that I drew, that the Asians vote about 10% more Dem than the Anglos. Does that qualify as a sufficient differential?  The VRA would still not apply even if that qualifies as a sufficient differential, I don't think, because as has been noted, Anglos have little or no problem voting for Asians. A GOP Korean won CA-42 I think under the old lines, and a Dem Asian, represents much of the new CA-42 as I drew it in a less Asian incarnation.

[Torie]

Great "travelogue" jimtex, and I seem so far to be on the right track. You are exactly right that CA-48 that I drew is three fifths in OC, and two fifths in SD.

[Torie]

i kind of wanted to redistrict orange county and see if there was any differences between parts of the county. I divided the county into four quadrants. All of them were pretty 50-50 break even except for the northeast quadrant which gave McCain about 58% of the vote. Bush very well may have gotten close to 65% here. The communities here would be like Villa Park, Yorba Linda, parts of Orange and Placentia etc. What makes that part of the county so much more republican than the rest of the county?

Middle to upper middle class Anglo non Jewish socons with kids living in the house, and rather light on the professional class who like to live closer to the beach. The end. You just can't get more Pubbie than that, unless their Dutch or LDS.