US House Redistricting: California

[minionofmidas]

There is basically nothing there other than migrating illegals.

Which merge seamlessly into both the National City etc area of SD, and Imperial County, of course.
Seriously, I would not consider something somewhat like the current district "dead on arrival". A little unlikely, yes, but certainly not to be dismissed out of hand. It has problems but also a certain logic.

[minionofmidas]

How Hispanic is your CA-45? If there's one thing that stands out about Imperial, it's that it's the non metropolitan part of SoCal... if it doesn't belong with National City and Imperial Beach, it belongs with LA suburbs even less. So... if the populations and hispanic percentages at all allow it... why not take it further north into the Mojave Desert and Death Valley?

[minionofmidas]

Are Asians even technically covered under the VRA Act - the way it's written? I wasn't sure, I had to look it up. It appears they are.

[minionofmidas]

The more rural parts of Sonoma don't belong into any district but the first by any measure, really.

[minionofmidas]

Since the official data aren't out yet and you'll have to redo once they are... I'd put this on hold for now.

[minionofmidas]

In Texas the statewide total was very near spot on but the distribution by region was different - sometimes very much so - in myriad, hard to summarize ways.

[minionofmidas]

btw, what is with all those precincts that contain 50,000+ people? In fact there was a precinct in Torrace that had over 100,000 people. Aren't there laws that state that precincts can't have more than a certain population? Imagine how crowded the polling station would be on election day.

They're not precincts, they're VTD's. For some states they're basically the same thing, but for other's they're very different.

"VTD's"?  Sorry, but I'm kind of a newbie here, and never heard that one before.

Voting Tabulation Districts. In most states, that's precincts or approximations of precincts as built up from census blocks (since the census can't construct their populations entirely accurately if they don't follow block lines.)

[minionofmidas]

Kay, the North Coast and Yuba districts surprised me. Haven't looked at SoCal yet - probably would misread the LA maps anyhow.

[minionofmidas]

Fairly conservative in a number of places - the R sink in northeast LA County (hugging the south slope of the hills) stays, Filner's district stays...

[minionofmidas]

Can't tell you by number, at least not in all cases.

ONTPM      54.3       57.8 - Ontario, Pomona. I think this is new.
EVENT      51.4       57.6 - bulk of Ventura County - arguably CA-24, but considerably ungerrymandered. Excludes Simi Valley, has Oxnard and Ventura back in.
SLOSB      50          57 - CA-23, but considerably ungerrymandered mirroringly.
RVMVN      53.3       56.9 - Riverside, Moreno Valley. Is that Bono's district? I dunno.
MMRHB      48.4       55.9 - CA-53, but shifted northwards and taking in Poway.

[minionofmidas]

I like the fact that there are no numbers. It takes away from the idea that a particular district belongs to a particular incumbent.

I doubt they'll stay unnumbered. Unless that was part of the legislation? Anyways, unless they massively rename districts in 2020, this is a one-off effect.

[minionofmidas]

They also fixed Northern California some.

Contrast





(draft) with (final)

[minionofmidas]

Wait, the coastal district now stretches all the way from Palos Verdes to Malibu?

[minionofmidas]

For one thing, he lives in CA-16 and it's a safer option than CA-21.

Those two are like twins. They are not going to harm each other. If one has one option and the other has two, he will take the other one.

[minionofmidas]

I count 38 districts that both Obama and Brown won. If Brown could carry a district in 2010 of all years, then it at least Leans Democratic in even a poor or neutral year. The real swing districts are CA-10, CA-52 and CA-26, the latter of which being the most winnable for Democrats.

CA-52 is Bilbray's district. Brown lost it by 8 points.

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/crc-july-28th-final-maps-congress/CD52.png

I know whose district it is and what the numbers are, thank you. Obama won this new version in 2008 by about 2 points than he did the old one, which shifts the PVI. It's fair to call it a swing district, since it has potential to shift in Dem year.

Given the area'S traditions, Obama's strong perfomance there, incumbency etc, it's still a solidly lean R district. At least for now, it may well be headed down the drain in the mediumterm.

[minionofmidas]

What is that primary system like?

[minionofmidas]

Gallegly's home and base of Simi Valley being cut out of the district puts him at a big disadvantage, especially when the seat now takes on Oxnard. He's never run a competitive race and probably does not want to start now. He almost retired in 2006, so it's conceivable he may not run.

Right, I remember that. He only withdrew from retiring when he noticed it was too late to get his chosen successor on the primary ballot, and some unknown joke primary challenger would have become the Republican candidate.

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Cajunifornia?

Louisiana doesn't have such primaries anymore, though. (Also, I assume you'll have a top two G.E. even if the first received a majority of the vote?)

[minionofmidas]

Louisiana never changed its primary system for state elections

Yeah, I know that

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One would hope they do that in Louisiana as well, it solves the constitutional issue. I guess not, though?

[minionofmidas]

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/crc-july-28th-final-maps-congress/CD17.png

Almost a majority.

[minionofmidas]

The Republican convention is poised to do a 180 on its lame anti-senate-map referendum and encourage its defeat.

http://t.co/ODhK9IfT

Lol.