US House Redistricting: California

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I can't even get California to work on my computer; it takes forever to load, is incredibly slow to move around, and generally causes my browser to lock up.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

CA-18 and 20 are both majority-Hispanic, according to the new Census figures, so they should be protected by the VRA.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They're the starting point for the new maps.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Guys, these maps are just rough sketches from the commission to the actual map drawers. It's way too early to draw any conclusions.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

These maps look very odd to me, almost shocking. What on earth are they doing?

They're very rough drafts, basically just initial instructions from the commission to the actual map drawers. The first real draft map is supposed to be released on the 10th.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like they'll be posted here:

http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/maps-first-drafts.html

Keep in mind this is still a first draft. The second draft will be released July 1, with the final maps on September 15.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They're up. They've also posted shapefiles, so maybe someone GIS-savvy could get some data on them.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Filner's district is majority-Hispanic. Unless they could draw a cleaner majority-Hispanic district, they couldn't really touch it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dave Wasserman opines:

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DKE thinks Ed Royce may be in trouble as well. Also, Pete Stark's district has been dismantled. They should have some partisan data computed fairly soon (perhaps later today, perhaps by Monday), since they did the same quickly with Texas.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here we go, '08 and '10 numbers:

Congress
DISTRICT   Brown %      Obama %
IGWSG      90.1       90.4
OKLND      89.4       89.4
CRSLP      82.3       85.6
SF         78.1       84.9
HTGCC      82          83.6
ELABH      82          82.8
WLADT      73.1       77.5
SNMAT      70.9       75.1
SFVET      70          74.8
NOCST      65.9       72.6
SNMSC      67.7       72.3
MONT      65.2       72.3
SANJO      62.6       70.5
FRNWU      64.9       69.3
SAC         69.3       68.3
SNACL      65.1       67.7
COCO      61.5       67.5
SFVWC      58.9       67
LBPRT      60.8       66.8
IMSAN      65.3       66.3
DWWTR      63.8       66.2
COVNA      62.3       65.6
YOSON      63.5       65.4
SGMFH      57.8       64.7
PVEBC      56.5       64.6
SBRIA      63          64.1
YUBA      61.8       62.7
SGVDB      56.2       61.8
CHNCS      57.1       60.7
SNJOA      55          58.2
MRCED      54.2       58.1
ONTPM      54.3       57.8
EVENT      51.4       57.6
SLOSB      50          57
RVMVN      53.3       56.9
MMRHB      48.4       55.9
WESTG      50          52.3
KINGS      55.8       52.2
SACCO      51.8       51.3
AVSCV      43.1       51.3
COACH      46.7       50.8
STANI      47.7       50.6
CSTSN      41.1       50.2
OCCST      38.9        49.9
LHBYL      41           47.6
PRS         39.7        45.3
STHOC      35.1        44.7
FRSNO      37.8        42.7
INMSB      43.4        42.2
FTHLL      40.8        41.6
MTCAP      51.4        40.6
NESAN      36.5        39.5
KR         36.8        37

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't see this making many competitive districts. Republicans have been pretty consistent in winning the existing 51% Obama districts. Democrats would be fine with anything 58% Obama or greater. I wouldn't be surprised if the 56-57% Obama districts ended up being the only competitive ones.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here we go, district-by-district maps and lots of data:

http://www.mpimaps.com/mapanalysis/crc-draft-congressional-plan/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Can someone explain the changes in San Diego? Where do they leave Susan Davis and does someone get a new district?

Susan Davis is here:

http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/428/

Duncan Hunter is here:

http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/452/

Filner's district, open now since he's running for San Diego mayor:

http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/442/

This is an open district, which is fairly swingy; presumably Bilbray would move here and run:

http://www.mpimaps.com/nggallery/page-89/image/448/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Thanks to the block groups with political data being added, it's easier to figure out the OC situation. You can easily draw a majority-Hispanic district in the Anaheim/Santa Ana area, and draw a 35% Asian district to the west of it. There, both minority groups are happy.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Republicans want to repeal the maps via referendum if they're similar to the "visualizations". Good luck with that.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

More data on the new districts.

http://www.mpimaps.com/mapanalysis/crc-july-28th-final-maps-congress/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Caveat: some of the numbers don't look right. There are a few districts where Obama supposedly underperformed Brown and Boxer by high-single digits.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Louisiana never changed its primary system for state elections, and it's going back to the jungle primary for federal elections next year. And yes, in California, there will be a general election regardless of whether or not a candidate receives a majority of the vote. In that respect, it's like Washington's system.