Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Јas]

Or perhaps I´m saying this because I still can´t comprehend the notion of Enda Kenny being taoiseach.

Which would be entirely understandable as it's not a nice thought.

Perhaps it´s a bit of urban snobbery on my part...

He's apparently now saying that his empty chair at the TV3 debate will "stand as a symbol to those forced to emigrate" - which is possibly the stupidest thing I've heard in this campaign so far.

What concerns me is that I think Noel Whelan is correct in his assessment:

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[Јas]

Find myself back in Dublin for the week - I've been surprised by the comparative lack of political littering postering compared to other recent elections.

Possibly reflecting the party's own changed economic situation, or possibly my memory is poor.

[Kevinstat]

Is any incumbent (or resigned since 2007) TD running in a different constituency from that which he or she served from in the 30th (2007-2011) Dáil, counting all constituencies with the same name pre- and post-2007 review the same and counting Kerry North Limerick West, Limerick and Limerick City as the same (for the purpose of this question) as Kerry North, Limerick West and Limerick East, respectively?  Looking at the list of candidates at ElectionsIreland.org, the only "°" indicators for candidates who currently represent a different constituency seem to be for incumbent TDs standing for reelection in the three renamed constituencies, all of whom represented the "main predecessor district" (I can tell from looking at the numbers here and doing the math in my head that every post- and pre-2007 review constituency has the majority of its population coming from or going to a unique pre- or post-2007 review constituency, with the biggest minority portion probably being the Limerick East portion of Limerick) in the 30th Dáil.  I thought I had seen another "°" indicator in the Fianna Fáil column sometime in the last week, but I don't see any outside those three constituencies (all TDs from the main predecessor constituency) anymore.  Had someone been planning on jumping contituencies but changed their mind?  (If it was a Fianna Fáil TD, he or she probably figured it was pointless to try to get elected in a new constituency.)

[Kevinstat]

Also, is Fine Gael really running four candidates (none of them incumbent TDs, in spite of Joe O'Reilly being in boldface) in Cavan-Monaghan and Galway West?  They might well win four in Mayo and I guess a "sweeper" in Galway East makes sense (four in Laoighis Offaly is pushing it, as their percentage there in 2007 was less than in Cavan-Monaghan, but with Fianna Fáil being the only other game in town there it may not be crazy), but with a viable opponent "3rd party" in Cavan-Monaghan (SF) and Galway West (Labour), and a viable incumbent independent TD (Noel Grealish) in the latter, why would they run four candidates when winning three seats will be tall order?

[Verily]

Kildare South seems to have the opposite problem. Both Labour and FG are running only one candidate, which means they're effectively ceding a seat to FF. Seems like a very odd thing to do; it would be at least possible to see a 2 FG-1 Lab (or maybe even the reverse) result there. (Other candidates include a Shinner and two independents.)

[Хahar 🤔]

By Kevin's link, Fine Gael is running a full slate in Cork North West (3), Cork South West (3), Galway East (4), Limerick (3), and Meath West (3); no other party is running a full slate anywhere. The choice of constituencies seems rather random.

[Kevinstat]

Oh wow, I hadn't noticed that Galway East was only a 4-seater.  FG ran 4 candidates last time though and it didn't hurt them (both they and FF won two seats, with FF narrowly outpolling them on first preference votes).  FF ran three candidates in that election, while this year they are running two, one of them an incumbent while their other incumbent is retiring.

[Јas]

Is any incumbent (or resigned since 2007) TD running in a different constituency from that which he or she served from in the 30th (2007-2011) Dáil, counting all constituencies with the same name pre- and post-2007 review the same and counting Kerry North Limerick West, Limerick and Limerick City as the same (for the purpose of this question) as Kerry North, Limerick West and Limerick East, respectively?  ...
Had someone been planning on jumping contituencies but changed their mind?

No, and not that I'm aware.
Pressure from FF HQ was placed on both their Dún Laoighaire candidates such that one or other would move to run in Dublin S - but both held firm and so both seats are in danger.

[Јas]

Also, is Fine Gael really running four candidates (none of them incumbent TDs, in spite of Joe O'Reilly being in boldface) in Cavan-Monaghan and Galway West?  They might well win four in Mayo and I guess a "sweeper" in Galway East makes sense (four in Laoighis Offaly is pushing it, as their percentage there in 2007 was less than in Cavan-Monaghan, but with Fianna Fáil being the only other game in town there it may not be crazy), but with a viable opponent "3rd party" in Cavan-Monaghan (SF) and Galway West (Labour), and a viable incumbent independent TD (Noel Grealish) in the latter, why would they run four candidates when winning three seats will be tall order?

Running 4 in C-M is because they are chasing 3 seats (a quite realistic aim), but felt they had to run 2 from each county (same reasoning in Laois-Offaly). Humphreys and O'Reilly are to be favoured, I presume. I'd suggest Conlon will be closer than McVittie - Margaret Conlon's transfers (for surely she shall falter, rather than Smith) will likely stay in Monaghan thus preferring Humphreys and Conlon.

While quite a few tout C-M as an opportunity for a second SF seat, I don't see it happening. It looks like Ó Caoláin only allowed a weak second candidate. I can't see there being sufficient Cavan SF votes to get her really into contention - but I guess SF votes will transfer between the counties better than most other parties will manage, so who knows.

They should come close to 4 in Mayo - if they could (or would allow for) properly vote manage, then I'd favour them - but I suspect not.

Galway W is massive in terms of area and that's the main reason for the number of candidates - so parties tend to run more rather than less anyway just to increase the chances of getting face-to-face contact between the candidates and as many constituents as possible. (Note FF are running 3 here - even though they're only defending 2.) Most likely result here is probably a single FG gain from FF. Though I expect independents Catherine Connolly and Tom Welby to do better than last time. My inkling is that Connolly is in with a shout.

[Јas]

Kildare South seems to have the opposite problem. Both Labour and FG are running only one candidate, which means they're effectively ceding a seat to FF. Seems like a very odd thing to do; it would be at least possible to see a 2 FG-1 Lab (or maybe even the reverse) result there. (Other candidates include a Shinner and two independents.)

Yeah, both the FG and Labour candidate have done well (from their personal career perspective) in managing to be the respective sole candidates, particularly Wall.

FF should be holding one seat here though anyway, but the independent Kenny should put up some reasonable numbers to maybe keep it interesting.

[Verily]

Galway W is massive in terms of area and that's the main reason for the number of candidates - so parties tend to run more rather than less anyway just to increase the chances of getting face-to-face contact between the candidates and as many constituents as possible. (Note FF are running 3 here - even though they're only defending 2.) Most likely result here is probably a single FG gain from FF. Though I expect independents Catherine Connolly and Tom Welby to do better than last time. My inkling is that Connolly is in with a shout.

What about Grealish? Any chance he holds his seat, or is he finished?

[Јas]

Galway W is massive in terms of area and that's the main reason for the number of candidates - so parties tend to run more rather than less anyway just to increase the chances of getting face-to-face contact between the candidates and as many constituents as possible. (Note FF are running 3 here - even though they're only defending 2.) Most likely result here is probably a single FG gain from FF. Though I expect independents Catherine Connolly and Tom Welby to do better than last time. My inkling is that Connolly is in with a shout.

What about Grealish? Any chance he holds his seat, or is he finished?

The seat is definitely in danger, but he should be there at least until late into the count. I suspect it will be between him and Connolly for the final seat.

[patrick1]

What is the deal with FF's proposals on minister's role in the Dail? It just strikes me as anti Parliamentary and heading toward almost a separate American-like executive branch. Is it really so taxing to be a constituency rep and manage your portfolio at the same time?

[Хahar 🤔]

It's a good thing that FF won't be forming the next government. From their manifesto:

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What a terrible idea.

[Oakvale]

I actually quite like Fianna Fáil's proposal there. *feels unclean*

[Хahar 🤔]

I actually quite like Fianna Fáil's proposal there. *feels unclean*

Your country has the best electoral system anywhere, so, yeah, you should.

[minionofmidas]

I actually quite like Fianna Fáil's proposal there. *feels unclean*

Your country has the best electoral system anywhere, so, yeah, you should.

Or rather, would have if constituencies were larger.

[Хahar 🤔]

I actually quite like Fianna Fáil's proposal there. *feels unclean*

Your country has the best electoral system anywhere, so, yeah, you should.

Or rather, would have if constituencies were larger.

Even though it was indubitably better in the '20s and '30s, even now it's still superior to every other country.

[ilikeverin]

Why do you say that, Xahar?  (I'm honestly curious; I used to be more into election systems than I am now, so I'm mostly just uninformed.)

[Nichlemn]

I don't really understand the concern about running too many candidates. This isn't FPTP, vote splitting doesn't really exist. Perhaps the concern is wasting resources on multiple candidates targeting the same voters when a single candidate could focus on swing voters.

There have been examples where running too many candidates has gone wrong.  See the SDLP in West Tyrone in the 2007 Northern Ireland Assembly election: they had three candidates who got just over a quota between them, but transfers leaked away and they failed to get a seat.  Of course it's possible that if they'd only had one candidate they'd have got significantly fewer first preferences and so lost anyway, but I doubt it.

If people have well-behaved preferences (i.e. adding or removing an option does not change their ordinal rankings of other options), this should rarely matter (STV fails independence of irrelevant alternatives, although in practice it's almost always too hard to strategically nominate around this). Someone who ranks FF(1)>FG>FF(2) would simply vote FG>FF(2) if FF(1) did not run. Now, as Lewis Trondheim says, people may not in fact have well-behaved preferences.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why do you say that, Xahar?  (I'm honestly curious; I used to be more into election systems than I am now, so I'm mostly just uninformed.)

It's more or less proportional (especially with larger constituencies). However, unlike other systems of proportional representation, it allows those who vote for losing candidates to also have a say by considering lower preferences. It provides a link between elected officials and the electorate through its use of constituencies, so that legislators aren't completely faceless automata.

[Silent Hunter]

Best to ask this now rather than later...

How do we watch the results when they come in?

[joevsimp]

Why do you say that, Xahar?  (I'm honestly curious; I used to be more into election systems than I am now, so I'm mostly just uninformed.)

It's more or less proportional (especially with larger constituencies). However, unlike other systems of proportional representation, it allows those who vote for losing candidates to also have a say by considering lower preferences. It provides a link between elected officials and the electorate through its use of constituencies, so that legislators aren't completely faceless automata.

I agree, definately think we should adopt that in Britain as it also preserves the (slightly stretched these days, I'll admit) principle (wrong word but can't think of a better one) that you vote for an individual person (or people in this case) who happens to be a member of a certain party rather than for the party itself

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trouble with STV is that it's a good electoral system for electing witless morons who parade around (often less than honestly) as 'local champions' and get rewarded for it. Of course that happens under fptp as well.

[Insula Dei]

Best to ask this now rather than later...

How do we watch the results when they come in?