Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Јas]

A number of leftist groups are coming together for the upcoming election under the United Left Alliance banner.

We are an alliance of left wing groups and individuals for the next general election. The Alliance is opposed to the governments’ bailouts and the slash and burn policies which are only making the crisis worse.

In the general election we aim to provide a real alternative to the establishment parties as well as Labour and Sinn Fein, who also accept the capitalist market and refuse to rule out coalition with right wing parties.

The approach of a Fine Gael / Labour government in power would not be fundamentally different than this government.

They comprise, primarily, the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit Alliance (PBP), along with some leftist independents with reasonable local bases of support (Seamus Healy in Tipperary South; Declan Bree in Sligo).

They should take a handful of seats - best prospects are likely Dublin W & Dublin N for the Socialists; Dún Laoighaire and Dublin SC for PBP; and, Seamus Healy in Tipperary S. After that, who knows...

[Ethelberth]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Families_in_the_Oireachtas

[Χahar]

http://irishelectionliterature.wordpress.com/2010/11/26/the-first-leaflet-from-the-united-left-alliance-ula/

Presumably Higgins will win. I'd expect Barrett to get a seat, except that Dún Laoghaire is losing a seat, which will make it considerably more difficult. It'll be interesting to see how well the ULA does.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

For a long time Fianna Fáil didn't form coalitions at all. Fine Gael, on the other hand, has always been the second-largest party in the Dáil, and as a result has always had to form coalitions to take power. Given that Labour has always been clearly the third-largest party in Ireland, they are Fine Gael's traditional coalition partners. Moreover, the Progressive Democrats were originally Fianna Fáil dissidents.

     Why did FF not form coalitions? For any sort of non-ideological, dare I say "American-esque", party, holding power by any means necessary would seem like a logical modus operandi. Lacking ideological convictions & being unwilling to cooperate with other parties seems like a recipe for irrelevancy.

[Kevinstat]

For a long time Fianna Fáil didn't form coalitions at all. Fine Gael, on the other hand, has always been the second-largest party in the Dáil, and as a result has always had to form coalitions to take power. Given that Labour has always been clearly the third-largest party in Ireland, they are Fine Gael's traditional coalition partners. Moreover, the Progressive Democrats were originally Fianna Fáil dissidents.

     Why did FF not form coalitions? For any sort of non-ideological, dare I say "American-esque", party, holding power by any means necessary would seem like a logical modus operandi. Lacking ideological convictions & being unwilling to cooperate with other parties seems like a recipe for irrelevancy.

Maybe they feared that forming a temporary coalition to stay in power would change the political dymamic in a way that would prevent them from ever governing on their own (as they had often been able to do, albiet sometimes with a minority of seats in the Dáil and relying on the support of Independents (I'm not sure if any of those were given government positions like now-Independent Mary Harney currently has) and even, at least once, a party outside of government (Fine Gael with its Tallaght Strategy from 1987 to... their entering government and John Bruton becoming Taoiseach in 1994?)).  The Labor Party in Norway long avoided coalitions iirc.  They're leading a coalition government now but I doubt they'll ever govern on their own again (apart from a period of time for no more than a year I'd say after other parties hypothetically leave a Labor-led governrment but for whatever reason there isn't majority support in the main legislative body for either another government (if that's even possible there without an election) or forcing a new election).

[Vasall des Midas]

It's strange. Fianna Fáil have no ideology

...

Fine Gael have traditionally not been all that different

Yeah, that's what I was gathering.

I'll always find it funny to read about a party which includes my name in its own name.

Fail? Yeah, that's awesome.

His surname is almost "Hermione", so I suppose he meant "fine".

[Kevinstat]

A number of leftist groups are coming together for the upcoming election under the United Left Alliance banner.

We are an alliance of left wing groups and individuals for the next general election. The Alliance is opposed to the governments’ bailouts and the slash and burn policies which are only making the crisis worse.

In the general election we aim to provide a real alternative to the establishment parties as well as Labour and Sinn Fein, who also accept the capitalist market and refuse to rule out coalition with right wing parties.

The approach of a Fine Gael / Labour government in power would not be fundamentally different than this government.

They comprise, primarily, the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit Alliance (PBP), along with some leftist independents with reasonable local bases of support (Seamus Healy in Tipperary South; Declan Bree in Sligo).

They should take a handful of seats - best prospects are likely Dublin W & Dublin N for the Socialists; Dún Laoighaire and Dublin SC for PBP; and, Seamus Healy in Tipperary S. After that, who knows...

Anything comperable going on in the right?  Not just Veritas and Cóir, but is there any "neo-PD" movement, fiscally conservative but anti-bailouts and anti-recent government action on the economy and thus at least somewhat anti-ex PD Mary Harney?  It seems like there could be a real opening for such a party or alliance, if only because Edna Kenney, who seems to take roughly that place on the spectrum, is so incompetant.

[Keystone Phil]

It's strange. Fianna Fáil have no ideology

...

Fine Gael have traditionally not been all that different

Yeah, that's what I was gathering.

I'll always find it funny to read about a party which includes my name in its own name.

Fail? Yeah, that's awesome.

His surname is almost "Hermione", so I suppose he meant "fine".

Just for the record, his first name is "Gael" and that's the party he meant. I was just being a smartass. 

Though maybe you knew that judging by the link you added in your post.

[Vasall des Midas]

Quite, quite.

[Јas]

Anything comperable going on in the right?  Not just Veritas and Cóir, but is there any "neo-PD" movement, fiscally conservative but anti-bailouts and anti-recent government action on the economy and thus at least somewhat anti-ex PD Mary Harney?  It seems like there could be a real opening for such a party or alliance, if only because Edna Kenney, who seems to take roughly that place on the spectrum, is so incompetant.

No. No sign of anything anyway. It's interesting that most of the PD counsellors survived the 2009 locals running as independents - but there is no sign of any effort at revival. Noel Grealish will presumable run again, and has a not unreasonable chance of re-election but that's about it from the ex-PD perspective.

 The last few months have seen a number of groups attempt to start new parties (from various political perspectives), but none seem likely to make any level of impact.

[Јas]

The number of incumbents retiring has been steadily increasing recently (list of declared here) - but topping the list of surprisies is today's news that Minister for Justice, Dermot Ahern (FF-Louth) is retiring. Senior cabinet Minister, long thought to have serious notions of becoming FF leader at some point, the decision comes as a significant surprise.

[Kevinstat]

It's interesting that most of the PD counsellors survived the 2009 locals running as independents - but there is no sign of any effort at revival. Noel Grealish will presumable run again, and has a not unreasonable chance of re-election but that's about it from the ex-PD perspective.

Is Mary Harney likely to run again?  If so, is she doomed to defeat, having all of the hardships of being in an unpopulat Government without the base of a major party like Fianna Fáil?  (In that respect, she's kind of like a Green Party TD.)

[Јas]

It's interesting that most of the PD counsellors survived the 2009 locals running as independents - but there is no sign of any effort at revival. Noel Grealish will presumable run again, and has a not unreasonable chance of re-election but that's about it from the ex-PD perspective.

Is Mary Harney likely to run again?  If so, is she doomed to defeat, having all of the hardships of being in an unpopulat Government without the base of a major party like Fianna Fáil?  (In that respect, she's kind of like a Green Party TD.)

It has been widely assumed that Harney would be retiring for years now. But as it happens, there's a small story in today's Irish Times (see bottom of page) indicating that that's not a certainty and that indeed there are rumours she might seek to run for FF (!).

She has not declared her hand . . . As far as the Minister is concerned, the most important thing at the moment is to get the budget through.

[Јas]

I figure new polling should probably go here now, so...

Traditionally the most accurate pollster, MRBI, have come up with their latest poll to be published in tomorrow's Irish Times. The poll numbers, the last RedC poll, the last comparable MRBI poll and the 2007 Election numbers are tabulated below.

	16 Dec	3 Dec	26 Sep	2007
	I-MRBI	RedC	I-MRBI	Election
Fine Gael	30	32	24	27
Labour	25	24	33	10
Fianna Fáil	17	13	24	42
Sinn Féin	15	16	8	7
Green	2	3	2	5
Ind/Other	11	11	8	9

It may be noted that on the raw numbers, 25% were undecided.

This poll sees substantial swings. It's the first time MRBI have FG back ahead of Labour since January. The poll suggests that there has been a very substantial swing against Labour in recent months.

It also returns FF to their joint lowest ever MRBI polling result - 17% (down 7 on September's poll, which itself was up 7 on June).

The poll seems to confirm the RedC indicated Sinn Féin surge. It seems to me that this represents the third significant shift away from FF in the last three years. (The first wave left for FG in 2008/09. The second left for Labour in 2009/10.)


Finally, the leaders' and government satisfaction ratings…

Satisfaction Ratings

Gilmore	44	(-5)
Adams	28	(-1)
Kenny	23	(-2)
Cowen	14	(-5)
Gormley	13	(-5)
Government	8	(-5)

[Sibboleth]

Bah. Still, even 25% would be more than double the last election and significantly higher than even 1992. In theory, anyway.

[RodPresident]

My dream is see establishment parties FF+G and FG+LP low than 50%, including independents. Radical problems need radical solutions!
GO SINN FEIN! GO ULA!

[oakvale]

As something of a Labour hack I'm somewhat disappointed in the poll, but I'm almost adopting that old FF line of "the only poll that matters...".

I'm actually thinking the swing is from Labour to Fine Gael. Could be helped by the fact that Noonan performed very well in the last couple of weeks.

Anyway, hopefully it's just a blip...

EDIT: Also, the Independent's headline is going to be something like "FIANNA FAIL SURGE AHEAD OF SINN FÉIN".

[DL]

Too bad they don't have first past the post in Ireland - if they did I suspect FF would get wiped off the map and end up with zero seats.

[Jens]

A couple of questions:

First: Is it possible to estimate the distribution of TD's? I know that SF will not get 15 % of the TD's, but I wonder what percentage FF will get, given their presence all over the country

Second: Any chance the Greens will survive. It's any of their politicians popular enougth to carry a mandate?

[oakvale]

As a postscript - the leader's debate will help Labour, assuming Kenny and Cowen are still around.

Also, I can't help but thinking that the muzzle FG have put on Kenny seems to be paying off... maybe Michael Noonan could be making a comeback some time soon.

[/Labour hack]

[Јas]

I'm actually thinking the swing is from Labour to Fine Gael. Could be helped by the fact that Noonan performed very well in the last couple of weeks.

The last MRBI poll seems to have been an outlier in various respects, most particularly pitching FG at just 24%. (It was one of just 2 of 16 polls this year to put them below 30%, never mind close to 24%.)

Not sure either that much can be read into FG's result, especially not the relatively glowing reviews of Noonan we've seen in the press. This is still FG's 3rd worst poll result in the last 2 years. To read the coverage it seems FG should be delighted that since the last General Election, 3 and a half years ago (what with economic disaster, FF's collapse et al) that they've ostensibly gained all of 2.7 percentage points.

EDIT: Also, the Independent's headline is going to be something like "FIANNA FAIL SURGE AHEAD OF SINN FÉIN".

It's a rare occasion that I read much of anything in the Indo, but as it happens I did catch their coverage of this today. Despite giving quite a bit of coverage to the poll, they display a remarkable ability to ignore SF's performance.

(Also - their use of graphs makes me cry.)

[Јas]

As a postscript - the leader's debate will help Labour, assuming Kenny and Cowen are still around.

Maybe. Or maybe Gilmore has nowhere to go but down.
If Cowen can perform reasonably well (see e.g. his recent Prime Time interview), then I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him be deemed to have 'won' the debate.

Plus - bonus question - if SF continue polling in the mid-teens or better, can Adams be reasonably excluded from the leadership debate when FF are polling around the same level?

[Јas]

First: Is it possible to estimate the distribution of TD's? I know that SF will not get 15 % of the TD's, but I wonder what percentage FF will get, given their presence all over the country

One or two blogs have now taken to making seat projections based on each new poll. I'd advise taking plenty of salt with you on considering such projections, obviously, but they provide not completely unreasonable efforts at guessing the sorts of net results that might emerge.

Second: Any chance the Greens will survive. It's any of their politicians popular enougth to carry a mandate?

Yeah, there's a chance. Trevor Sargent (Dublin N) is presumably best placed to be returned, but it's an uphill battle.

Whether or not the party will survive if they don't get anyone elected? I suspect it will, in some form or other, keep going - but who knows.

[oakvale]

Plus - bonus question - if SF continue polling in the mid-teens or better, can Adams be reasonably excluded from the leadership debate when FF are polling around the same level?

Depends whether it's RTÉ hosting the debate or not. Assuming it is, they'll squirm their way out of allowing Adams to participate. If TV3 do one, though, I'd imagine Adams would be invited, providing their polling holds.

[Vasall des Midas]

Plus - bonus question - if SF continue polling in the mid-teens or better, can Adams be reasonably excluded from the leadership debate when FF are polling around the same level?

Depends whether it's RTÉ hosting the debate or not. Assuming it is, they'll squirm their way out of allowing Adams to participate.

Simple - just have a debate between the two front runners only.