Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Јas]

Why doesn't FF just change their name to Epic Fail? Since that's what they clearly are.

You've been beaten to that joke by many posters here over the past two years, and The Economist last week.

[Vasall des Midas]

Ask that question of the Social Democratic Party of Portugal first.

[Јas]

Various rumours out there this morning that a leadership challenge to Cowen could be mounted (there's a parliamentary party meeting later today) following his inability to shake off the golfgate story at Leader's Questions in the Dáil yesterday.

[Јas]

Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s position is looking increasingly under threat following further revelations about his contacts with Anglo Irish Bank officials in the lead-up to the controversial bank guarantee in September 2008.

Speculation is growing in Leinster House that a motion of no confidence in Mr Cowen may be tabled by backbenchers at a crunch Fianna Fáil parliamentary party meeting this afternoon. The meeting was due to be held this morning but was postponed at the last minute until 3pm this afternoon.

- The Irish Times

[Јas]

Speculation is mounting in Leinster House that Brian Cowen's position as leader of Fianna Fáil is under imminent threat. A meeting of the Fianna Fail parliamentary party that was due to take place this morning has been put off until 3pm.

There was speculation around Leinster House this morning that the meeting would consider Brian Cowen's leadership. Asked whether a no confidence motion might be tabled, one senior minister told RTÉ 'that may well happen'.

- RTÉ

[Јas]

Newstalk radio are reporting that Cowen has been asked to resign.

There is growing momentum behind a push to oust the Taoiseach Brian Cowen as leader of Fianna Fail.

A number of senior TDs and ministers have expressed their unhappiness to Mr. Cowen at the latest revelations surrounding his contacts with former Anglo Irish Bank chairman Sean FitzPatrick.

A meeting of the Fianna Fail parliamentary party was due to take place at midday. This has been pushed back until 3pm giving Mr. Cowen time to consider his options.

Newstalk’s Political Correspondent Páraic Gallagher says Mr. Cowen has been asked to step down.

[Јas]

FF parliamentary meeting underway.
Newstalk reports that Cowen doesn't intend to resign.

[Јas]

Cowen acknowledges that there are issues around his leadership; tells party he will meet with members individually over the next week to discuss what is in the best interest of the party.


Also today, Sinn Féin (with the support of independents Finian McGrath and Maureen O'Sullivan) has put down a motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach. Not sure when it will come up for Dáil consideration yet.

[Јas]

Cowen to sound out FF TDs today before deciding whether to resign - Irish Times

[Χahar]

Since Jas didn't include a link:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/0114/1224287489575.html

[Јas]

oops

[Јas]

Labour have now also decided to put down a motion of no confidence in the Government.

Due to the workings and technicalities of the Dáil calendar, it will come up before the SF motion put down yesterday.

[Χahar]

Martin withdraws support as Cowen calls vote of confidence - Irish Times

[Јas]

Ahead of tomorrow's FF parliamentary party confidence motion on Cowen's leadership, still only one cabinet minister (Martin [Foreign Affairs, Cork SC]) has publicly declared intent to vote against the leader.

Two junior ministers, so far as I've seen, Conor Lenihan (brother of Finance Minister, Brian) and Billy Kelleher have also indicated they will vote against. All remain in Government positions pending the outcome of the vote.

Seems likely to me at this stage that Cowen will win, but stranger things have happened.

[Kevinstat]

What are the chances of Martin, Lenihan or Kelleher voting for Labour's motion of no confidence in the Government if Cowen wins the FF vote?  Negligible, I imagine, but you would know better than I.

[Јas]

What are the chances of Martin, Lenihan or Kelleher voting for Labour's motion of no confidence in the Government if Cowen wins the FF vote?  Negligible, I imagine, but you would know better than I.

Yeah, negligible sounds about right.

Whether in favour of Cowen's leadership of FF or not, it's the prevailing view within FF that he should remain as Taoiseach, win or lose today's vote, and see through the Finance Bill.

[Јas]

The Irish Times counts 37 publicly declared supporters of Cowen for tonight's vote - only 13 declared against. (36 votes required to win.) It's possible of course that in a secret ballot things may not go as publicly declared (not that I'm for a moment suggesting that FF TDs might say one thing and do another, perish the thought!).

Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheál Martin is the only cabinet minister to declare he will be voting against. (Minister for the Arts, Mary Hanafin is the only remained cabinet minister yet to declare.) Both are likely leadership contenders post-Cowen.

Minister for Finance (and possible leadership contender), Brian Lenihan today declared his backing for Cowen - contrary to what everyone believes his natural inclination is, including two backbenchers who have said this afternoon that Lenihan has encouraged such dissent. It's likely Lenihan's position is at least in part determined by the wish to isolate Martin.

Presuming Cowen wins this evening, it remains to be seen whether he will then accept Martin's ministerial resignation.

[Јas]

And the result...


Can't say for sure what the exact figures were, these weren't (and won't be) announced and are apparantly only known to the two (Cowen supporters) who counted the ballots, but it's understood to have been a fairly sizable (20-25 vote) win for Cowen.

Martin has resigned as Minister for Foreign Affairs.

[Vasall des Midas]

Can't say for sure what the exact figures were, these weren't (and won't be) announced and are apparantly only known to the two (Cowen supporters) who counted the ballots, but it's understood to have been a fairly sizable (20-25 vote) win for Cowen.

...or so they claim...

[Јas]

Minister for the Arts, Mary Hanafin has clarified that she voted against Cowen in last night's confidence vote - but has neither offered, nor been asked, to resign.

Also: the Taoiseach has decided to take over the Foreign Affairs portfolio, at least for the time being.

[Јas]

4 Government Ministers resigned last night:
Minister for Justice, Dermot Ahern (FF-Louth)
Minister for Transport, Noel Dempsey (FF-Meath W)
Minister for Defence, Tony Killeen (FF-Clare)
Minister for Health, Mary Harney (i-Dublin MW)

None of the 4 will be contesting the next election (all but Harney had made this known before last night). Harney offered her resignation last week, but the Taoiseach held off until now to accept. The others were likely asked to resign to facilitate a broader reshuffle.

The reshuffle, expected in the next 24-48 hours, will likely result in some of the shortest serving cabinet ministers in Irish history.

[Χahar]

This means that Noel Grealish will be the only ex-PD standing.

[Јas]

The Taoiseach has announced 11 March as the date for the General Election.

[Јas]

Minister for Enterprise, Batt O'Keeffe (FF-Cork NW) has become the 6th Government Minister to resign.

The farce of the resignations, causing considerable disgruntlement with the Greens, seems to have forced Cowen to name a date for the election - quite possible earlier than might otherwise have been the case. (25 March was the conventional wisdom until now).

[Sibboleth]

Are constituency boundaries the same as last time?

Both parts of Ireland having their elections within a couple of months of each other is slightly fun.