Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.politicspa.com/sestak-throws-water-on-senate-2012-rumors/19404/


Not a total dismissal yet. 

[Senator Snowstalker]

Bob Casey 2016, anyone?

[Keystone Phil]

Bob Casey 2016, anyone?

You mean Sestak? It might be too long for him but who knows? If Casey is re-elected in 2012, he's going for Governor in 2018 to round out his political career with the only job he has truly wanted.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Bob Casey 2016, anyone?

You mean Sestak? It might be too long for him but who knows? If Casey is re-elected in 2012, he's going for Governor in 2018 to round out his political career with the only job he has truly wanted.

I meant for President.

[GPORTER]

Bob Casey 2016, anyone?

You mean Sestak? It might be too long for him but who knows? If Casey is re-elected in 2012, he's going for Governor in 2018 to round out his political career with the only job he has truly wanted.

I meant for President.

Casey doesn't want 2 b n the white house

[Keystone Phil]

Bob Casey 2016, anyone?

You mean Sestak? It might be too long for him but who knows? If Casey is re-elected in 2012, he's going for Governor in 2018 to round out his political career with the only job he has truly wanted.

I meant for President.

...

The GOP would never get that lucky.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hmm, I just realized something. Three of the 12 Democrats left in McCain districts are in PA: Holden, Critz, and Altmire. Meanwhile, four Republicans in PA are in districts Obama carried by double-digits: Gerlach, Meehan, Barletta, and Dent. That's kind of funny, in a way.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Hmm, I just realized something. Three of the 12 Democrats left in McCain districts are in PA: Holden, Critz, and Altmire. Meanwhile, four Republicans in PA are in districts Obama carried by double-digits: Gerlach, Meehan, Barletta, and Dent. That's kind of funny, in a way.

What are the other 9 Dems in McCain districts?

[Torie]

Hmm, I just realized something. Three of the 12 Democrats left in McCain districts are in PA: Holden, Critz, and Altmire. Meanwhile, four Republicans in PA are in districts Obama carried by double-digits: Gerlach, Meehan, Barletta, and Dent. That's kind of funny, in a way.

What are the other 9 Dems in McCain districts?

Off the top, Matheson, Boren, Marshall (?), somebody left in Texas?, Ross in Arkansas, Critz (?), Rahall, well, I am getting tired. You know the zones to look at. How about KY-6?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dan Boren, Jim Matheson, Mike Ross, Nick Rahall, Gabrielle Giffords, Collin Peterson, Ben Chandler, Mike McIntyre, and Heath Shuler.

[So the Heroes Fall]

So Giffords is now the most liberal Dem surviving in a McCain district. Not really surprising actually (her district would be an Obama one in any other state though granted.)

[Senator Napoleon]

What about Jim Matthews?

[Keystone Phil]

What about Jim Matthews?

...

Without going into detail (you really have to be involved or follow local politics here to understand), I can say it is one of the safest bets out there that Jim Matthews won't ever stand a chance in statewide Republican politics ever again. It's very unlikely that he'll even survive his challenge next year. He is very unpopular with both parties but especially with the GOP after some of the stuff he pulled after he was re-elected in 2007.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey's approval rating remains in the low 40s - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/regional/s_716843.html

"(Casey) went into Washington with all kinds of ideas, but once he got elected, I feel like we never heard from him again," said Joyce Keith, 57, a Democrat from McKeesport.

I actually was cornered into meeting and shaking hands with Casey today outside of Toomey's reception. I'm sure you can just imagine how weird that was for me.    He was actually literally two feet from Santorum and they awkwardly bumped into each other. Surprisingly, they are apparently very friendly to each other.

[Badger]

Casey's approval rating remains in the low 40s - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/regional/s_716843.html

"(Casey) went into Washington with all kinds of ideas, but once he got elected, I feel like we never heard from him again," said Joyce Keith, 57, a Democrat from McKeesport.

I actually was cornered into meeting and shaking hands with Casey today outside of Toomey's reception. I'm sure you can just imagine how weird that was for me.    He was actually literally two feet from Santorum and they awkwardly bumped into each other. Surprisingly, they are apparently very friendly to each other.

Two senators from the same state, they almost need to be to bring home buck$. That isn't always the case, of course, but it helps.

Oh, and his disapproval rating is only 27%. I'd like to know how much of the 30% undecided is actually "mixed opinion" vs. "no opinion". If I had to hazard a guess I'd say largely the latter.

[Gravis Marketing]

Oh, and his disapproval rating is only 27%.

LOL, that's a significant fact to include. Boehner and Pelosi have comparable approval ratings--I think he has 36% to her 34%--and I was all set to post a sarcastic "Dump Boehner now! Save the Republican majority!" post until I saw that his disapprovals were in the 20s while hers were close to 50.

[Keystone Phil]

Boehner and Pelosi have comparable approval ratings--I think he has 36% to her 34%

Totally irrelevant since the country doesn't vote for either of those individuals.

Two senators from the same state, they almost need to be to bring home buck$. That isn't always the case, of course, but it helps.

I wasn't saying it was odd that Casey was there. I expected it.

[freepcrusher]

Keystone, I find the need to call you out. You do realize that Casey unseated an incumbent by 17 points? Add that Pennsylvania hasn't voted for a republican nationally since 1988 and that 2012 won't be anywhere as bad as 2010 and he's pretty much safe. Did I not mention he is family royalty.

[Keystone Phil]

Keystone, I find the need to call you out. You do realize that Casey unseated an incumbent by 17 points? Add that Pennsylvania hasn't voted for a republican nationally since 1988 and that 2012 won't be anywhere as bad as 2010 and he's pretty much safe. Did I not mention he is family royalty.

No, I haven't realized that. 

Yes, he beat a very controversial Senator in a Democratic wave year. Yes, thank you for reminding me that he's family royalty. Now time for me to call you out: Casey winning by seventeen points in 2006 doesn't affect 2012. I'm not saying 2012 will be as bad as 2010 but you shouldn't be saying it definitely won't be. We don't know what it will be.

If Obama is unpopular, he can lose Pennsylvania and take Casey with him since Casey has been so close to the President. Casey also is finally in a position where he has to perform. Read the article. More people are saying they haven't heard much from the guy. This isn't like being State Treasurer where he got away with doing nothing. During these are times when people are paying more attention to what their members are doing in Congress and Casey isn't performing. He's irritating moderate to conservative Independents and even Republicans that supported him in the past. Also, to be rather blunt about this, the people that still think he is Casey, Sr. are dying off.

All of that having been said, I'm simply pointing out his weaknesses and the fact that he'll be targeted. Everywhere I have posted, I have said it is an uphill battle for a challenger. Casey definitely has advantages but you're out of it if you think he's "pretty much safe" with the voting record he has built and the fact that this is Pennsylvania.

[Senator Napoleon]

The other wildcard is if the GOP nominee is someone pro-choice like Gerlach. With Casey being pro-life, things could get interesting.

[Keystone Phil]

The other wildcard is if the GOP nominee is someone pro-choice like Gerlach. With Casey being pro-life, things could get interesting.

Gerlach is Pro Life.

[Senator Napoleon]

The other wildcard is if the GOP nominee is someone pro-choice like Gerlach. With Casey being pro-life, things could get interesting.

Gerlach is Pro Life.

I guess I made assumptions based on his membership in the Republican Main Street Partnership but I somehow doubt he is pro-life in the sense that Toomey and Santorum are, or else he would lose in the 6th.

What about Tom Ridge? He seems like he actually would be favored over Casey.

[Keystone Phil]

The other wildcard is if the GOP nominee is someone pro-choice like Gerlach. With Casey being pro-life, things could get interesting.

Gerlach is Pro Life.

I guess I made assumptions based on his membership in the Republican Main Street Partnership but I somehow doubt he is pro-life in the sense that Toomey and Santorum are, or else he would lose in the 6th.

Being vocally Pro Life really wouldn't cost him that seat. The people voting on that weren't voting for him anyway.

What about Tom Ridge? He seems like he actually would be favored over Casey.

He won't run. He'll be too old and he has no desire to be there. It would easily be the most boring major Senate race we would see in 2012.

[Grumps]

Regardless of Casey's ties to Obama (assuming in 2012 that will hurt him with another push to unseat incumbents) it will still take a formidible GOP challenger to unseat him, IMO.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The other wildcard is if the GOP nominee is someone pro-choice like Gerlach. With Casey being pro-life, things could get interesting.

Gerlach is Pro Life.

I guess I made assumptions based on his membership in the Republican Main Street Partnership but I somehow doubt he is pro-life in the sense that Toomey and Santorum are, or else he would lose in the 6th.

What about Tom Ridge? He seems like he actually would be favored over Casey.

I wouldn't do that on a regular basis. There are some members of the Main Street Partnership that are also in the Republican Study Committee.