Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 23, 2014, 10:07:30 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 Print
Author Topic: Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge  (Read 23192 times)
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #225 on: April 05, 2012, 03:06:54 am »
Ignore

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?


Rohrer is a very intelligent and articulate man. That said, I fear a very easy Casey win if he was the nominee. Scaringi - the former Santorum aide - isn't going to come close to winning the primary.

What makes him unelectable?

Scaringi? Doesn't have the funding, big resume or big backers, quite frankly.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3833
View Profile
« Reply #226 on: April 06, 2012, 02:50:35 am »
Ignore

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?


Rohrer is a very intelligent and articulate man. That said, I fear a very easy Casey win if he was the nominee. Scaringi - the former Santorum aide - isn't going to come close to winning the primary.

What makes him unelectable?

Scaringi? Doesn't have the funding, big resume or big backers, quite frankly.

I mean Rohrer.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #227 on: April 06, 2012, 08:11:25 am »
Ignore

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?


Rohrer is a very intelligent and articulate man. That said, I fear a very easy Casey win if he was the nominee. Scaringi - the former Santorum aide - isn't going to come close to winning the primary.

What makes him unelectable?

Scaringi? Doesn't have the funding, big resume or big backers, quite frankly.

I mean Rohrer.

Comes across as too stiff and far right. His style would kill him in the suburbs. As for his electability in the primary, he has a chance because he probably has the most motivated group of supporters, is more known and is closer to the base but he and Smith are taking from the same group.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
They call me PR
Progressive Realist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5468
United States


View Profile
« Reply #228 on: April 12, 2012, 12:40:35 am »
Ignore

Between Rohrer, Smith, and Welch, who do you like the most, Phil?
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #229 on: April 12, 2012, 06:35:00 am »
Ignore

Between Rohrer, Smith, and Welch, who do you like the most, Phil?

Well, I've said for months that I'm undecided between Welch and Smith... Tongue

Rohrer is a very nice and sincere guy. I like him for other reasons, too, but I fear that he isn't electable. As for Smith and Welch, I think the debate the other night allowed me to finally make up my mind on this one. Barring a major screw up, I'm going with Welch. I have concerns with all of them but I think Welch is extremely intelligent, acceptable ideologically and stands the best chance at giving Casey a real challenge. His aggressiveness against Smith the other night proves to me that he's ready for primetime.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #230 on: April 12, 2012, 10:04:56 am »
Ignore

Keep in mind that it's an internal - http://www.politicspa.com/smith-poll-smith-leads-senate-race/33955/

Smith - 29%
Rohrer - 14%
Welch - 9%
Christian - 7%
Scaringi - 2%
Undecided - 39%

Not surprised at all at the undecided number even though we are just twelve days away from the Primary. I believe Smith is ahead because of his ads and mail (he is the only Senate candidate I've gotten mail from so far) but I imagine Welch is doing better than 9%.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3833
View Profile
« Reply #231 on: April 13, 2012, 12:18:33 am »
Ignore

Keep in mind that it's an internal - http://www.politicspa.com/smith-poll-smith-leads-senate-race/33955/

Smith - 29%
Rohrer - 14%
Welch - 9%
Christian - 7%
Scaringi - 2%
Undecided - 39%

Not surprised at all at the undecided number even though we are just twelve days away from the Primary. I believe Smith is ahead because of his ads and mail (he is the only Senate candidate I've gotten mail from so far) but I imagine Welch is doing better than 9%.


Hopefully Welch wins this. Despite my past reservations about him, he seems like the most electable against Casey.
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 927
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #232 on: April 13, 2012, 01:53:02 am »
Ignore


Hopefully Welch wins this. Despite my past reservations about him, he seems like the most electable against Casey.

Well, i don't know.. I don't like flip-flopping on issues. Welch was pro-choice until relatively recent times, now he is pro-life (i know that Casey - too). Not a good behavoir, IMHO
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3833
View Profile
« Reply #233 on: April 13, 2012, 02:33:43 am »
Ignore


Hopefully Welch wins this. Despite my past reservations about him, he seems like the most electable against Casey.

Well, i don't know.. I don't like flip-flopping on issues. Welch was pro-choice until relatively recent times, now he is pro-life (i know that Casey - too). Not a good behavoir, IMHO

He can't really be labeled as a right wing extremist though, and seems quite disciplined as a candidate. You can't necessarily say the same about Smith and Rohrer.
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 927
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #234 on: April 13, 2012, 05:44:48 am »
Ignore


He can't really be labeled as a right wing extremist though, and seems quite disciplined as a candidate. You can't necessarily say the same about Smith and Rohrer.

Here i fully agree. They are substantially more right wing..
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #235 on: April 13, 2012, 07:31:14 am »
Ignore

I've heard many things about Welch. I've never heard that he was Pro Choice. Are you sure you aren't just saying that because he seems to fit the bill (SE PA Republican supported by the establishment, not the most conservative candidate in the race, left the party at one point, etc.).
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 927
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #236 on: April 13, 2012, 08:23:47 am »
Ignore

I've heard many things about Welch. I've never heard that he was Pro Choice. Are you sure you aren't just saying that because he seems to fit the bill (SE PA Republican supported by the establishment, not the most conservative candidate in the race, left the party at one point, etc.).

Yes, i am sure. Not ready to present a link right now, but sure that i read it (being located in Moscow i am, naturally, "Internet-based"). Most likely - on SSP when he (Welch) intended to run for Gerlach seat, when Gerlach himself intended to run for governor

P.S. One off-topic question to you as an expert on Pennsylvania politics. With my strong love for "mavericks" and "really big tent" - most interesting politicians for me in Republican party tend to be as moderate (or even, gosh, a liberal) as possible. In Democratic - vice versa. Can you "recommend" somebody from Pennsylvania for me to follow their career?))))). I don't expect anyone like Jacob Javits or Larry McDonald, but still - ....
« Last Edit: April 13, 2012, 08:36:42 am by smoltchanov »Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #237 on: April 13, 2012, 08:59:24 am »
Ignore

Well, it might not have been from a reputable source because he has yet to be hit on his views on abortion and, believe me, they aren't holding back their attacks on Welch.

As for a maverick from PA, I'm sure Specter or Casey, Sr. are the most interesting. Or are you looking for someone currently in office?
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 927
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #238 on: April 13, 2012, 09:19:17 am »
Ignore

Well, it might not have been from a reputable source because he has yet to be hit on his views on abortion and, believe me, they aren't holding back their attacks on Welch.

As for a maverick from PA, I'm sure Specter or Casey, Sr. are the most interesting. Or are you looking for someone currently in office?

May be. But he doesn't seems too stringently pro-life either..

Well i know Specter's career since his days as DA in Philadelphia. And i remember Casey Sr. since his governor days. Somebody from, say, state Legislature, would suffice me))). But - as maverick (liberal for Republican, conservative for Democrat) as possible please))
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #239 on: April 13, 2012, 09:59:48 am »
Ignore

Richard Schweiker was a moderate to liberal Republican U.S. Senator during the 1970s. You may recognize the name because Reagan tapped him as his running mate ahead of the 1976 convention for ideological and geographical balance and as an attempt to win over PA's delegates.

If you want someone from the state legislature, look into former State Representative John Lawless from Montgomery county. He switched his party several times and ran for Lt. Governor as a Dem in 2002. Also, former Auditor General and State Treasurer Barbara Hafer would be up your alley. She was a Dem then became a Republican elected official (but was always more moderate to liberal) then switched back to the Dems in 2003. She was the frontrunner to take on Santorum in 2006 before Casey was recruited. She was the GOP nominee for Governor against Casey, Sr. in 1990 and lost in one of the biggest landslides in PA history (she only won Montgomery county and her margin of victory was miniscule. This was at the time when the Montco GOP won everything. Reagan refered to it as the best county GOP organization in the country). That was a great race because you had two individuals that didn't fit their respective parties that well. Hafer wanted to run for Governor again in 2002 but claims she was forced out by party leaders for then Attorney General (and now federal judge) Mike Fisher. That helped push her out of the party.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 927
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #240 on: April 13, 2012, 10:09:49 am »
Ignore

Richard Schweiker was a moderate to liberal Republican U.S. Senator during the 1970s. You may recognize the name because Reagan tapped him as his running mate ahead of the 1976 convention for ideological and geographical balance and as an attempt to win over PA's delegates.

If you want someone from the state legislature, look into former State Representative John Lawless from Montgomery county. He switched his party several times and ran for Lt. Governor as a Dem in 2002. Also, former Auditor General and State Treasurer Barbara Hafer would be up your alley. She was a Dem then became a Republican elected official (but was always more moderate to liberal) then switched back to the Dems in 2003. She was the frontrunner to take on Santorum in 2006 before Casey was recruited. She was the GOP nominee for Governor against Casey, Sr. in 1990 and lost in one of the biggest landslides in PA history (she only won Montgomery county and her margin of victory was miniscule. This was at the time when the Montco GOP won everything. Reagan refered to it as the best county GOP organization in the country). That was a great race because you had two individuals that didn't fit their respective parties that well. Hafer wanted to run for Governor again in 2002 but claims she was forced out by party leaders for then Attorney General (and now federal judge) Mike Fisher. That helped push her out of the party.

Thanks. Of course - i remember Schweiker. He, BTW, became more conservative after being selected for VP by Reagan...

Thanks for your suggestions. And from present-day Legislature? Milne? McIlhinney? Conklin? Greenleaf? Somebody else?
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #241 on: April 13, 2012, 10:24:39 am »
Ignore

Wow. You seem to know a decent amount already if you can spout their names like that. I don't think Milne is liberal (though I read yesterday about his connections to the teachers union) but McIlhinney and Greenleaf (who actually ran for President this year in New Hampshire to "prove a point" but had many of his fans scratching their heads) are worth a look.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
They call me PR
Progressive Realist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5468
United States


View Profile
« Reply #242 on: April 13, 2012, 11:52:44 am »
Ignore

Quote
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – The suspension of Rick Santorum’s campaign poses a real problem for the Republican establishment in Pennsylvania — one with serious consequences.

With Mitt Romney facing token opposition now, voter turnout on the Republican side might be much lighter. That means the hard fought five-candidate struggle for the US Senate nomination to oppose Bob Casey may be affected.

more: http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/04/13/analysis-with-santorum-out-corbetts-credibility-on-the-line-in-pa-senate-election/

Phil, your thoughts on this?
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #243 on: April 13, 2012, 12:28:45 pm »
Ignore

I'm involved in one race in particular (not the Senate race) and have said from day one that Santorum's candidacy was a big help to us for turnout. That big advantage isn't there anymore. I don't think it's that horrible because Republicans still have more reason to turn out than Dems (they only have a sort of competitive AG primary) but we obviously won't see the numbers we would have seen if the Presidential primary carried on.

The specific effect it has on the Senate primary is a little complex. PoliticsPA did a "Winners and Losers of Santorum's Withdraw" and listed Smith and Welch as winners while Rohrer was a loser. I mostly agree. The lower turnout typically favors the establishment pick (Welch) while Rohrer and his side clearly had ties to Santorum. With fewer Santorum fans turning out, it could be fatal for Rohrer. However, Welch's supporters are more likely to be Romney supporters and with Mitt not having to compete here/taking a much needed break, turn out among Welch sympathizes could be down, too.

Smith could be the big winner with this because, as PoliticsPA points out, he gets to continue dominate the air with his ads. Smith could really capitalize on Rohrer-Santorum voters not being as motivated in the T. He may also benefit from his hard hitting ads against Rohrer but he has a target on his back, too: Welch and Rohrer are really stepping up the attacks on Smith's history as a Democrat.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #244 on: April 14, 2012, 08:29:59 pm »
Ignore

Smith sent out a misleading mailer, saying "liberal" Steve Welch voted for Obama "even after Obama said we cling to our guns and religion and even after government took over healthcare." It has a black and white photo of Welch and Obama above the giant caption "It's true."

Welch didn't vote for Obama in the General and to say he voted for him even after the government took over healthcare is even more of a blatant lie. Disgusting.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2012, 08:50:29 pm by Keystone Phil »Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32039
United States


View Profile
« Reply #245 on: April 14, 2012, 08:52:31 pm »
Ignore

What is the difference between Rohrer and Smith?
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #246 on: April 15, 2012, 08:41:28 am »
Ignore

What is the difference between Rohrer and Smith?

Rohrer at least has a record of being conservative and I think he's far more articulate. A lot of questions remain about Smith.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #247 on: April 15, 2012, 10:21:02 am »
Ignore

And Smith was the only candidate to skip today's Inside Story (a Sunday round table debate program on Philly's ABC affiliate for those that aren't familiar) debate.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 927
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #248 on: April 16, 2012, 01:25:53 am »
Ignore

Wow. You seem to know a decent amount already if you can spout their names like that. I don't think Milne is liberal (though I read yesterday about his connections to the teachers union) but McIlhinney and Greenleaf (who actually ran for President this year in New Hampshire to "prove a point" but had many of his fans scratching their heads) are worth a look.

Thanks, Phil!
Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52208


View Profile
« Reply #249 on: April 18, 2012, 10:48:09 am »
Ignore

Smith's latest internal: Smith 35%  Rohrer 16%  Welch 10%

31% of likely voters are undecided.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines