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Author Topic: Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge  (Read 22321 times)
Keystone Phil
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« on: November 23, 2010, 08:28:06 pm »
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Too early? Never! We had the first challenger announce today and you guys will love his background (he used to be a Santorum staffer) - http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2010/11/former-santorum-aide-to-challenge-casey-in-2012.html


Declared candidates:

Attorney and former Santorum staffer Marc Scaringi


Other rumored candidates:

Congressman Jim Gerlach
Congressman Charlie Dent*
State Senator Jake Corman
Radio host and businessman Glen Meakem


* With Toomey's win, I doubt that Dent runs. I don't think the state will go for two Senators from the same backyard (the Lehigh Valley).
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2010, 08:56:11 pm »
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They need someone from out west or from the Philly burbs.
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J. J.
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« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2010, 09:33:58 pm »
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Too early? Never! We had the first challenger announce today and you guys will love his background (he used to be a Santorum staffer) - http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2010/11/former-santorum-aide-to-challenge-casey-in-2012.html


Declared candidates:

Attorney and former Santorum staffer Marc Scaringi

Unless he's appointed interim AG, I'd doubt it.


Quote
Other rumored candidates:

Congressman Jim Gerlach
Congressman Charlie Dent*
State Senator Jake Corman
Radio host and businessman Glen Meakem

Both Corman and Gerlach would be excellent.  The Cormans are a dynasty in Central PA.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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Rowan
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« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2010, 09:42:58 pm »
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Casey wins easily.

Next.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2010, 09:56:27 pm »
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Casey wins easily.

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Maybe not.  He hasn't exactly set the house of fire in the Senate and could be seen as part of the Ancien Régime in 2012.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Kevin
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2010, 10:44:50 pm »
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Casey wins easily.

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Maybe not.  He hasn't exactly set the house of fire in the Senate and could be seen as part of the Ancien Régime in 2012.

Not to mention I read a PPP poll recently which said that a higher number of voters disapprove of his performance then approve. And even though I can't remember the exact numbers they were moderately higher then the approves, so Casey could be vulnerable with the right candidate.

Plus Casey campaigned and ran as a moderate and his votes in the Senate have been anything but which in a state like Pennsylvania also counts as a mark against him.
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Duke
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2010, 10:49:22 pm »
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His name is Bob Casey. Unless 2012 is worse than 2010 for Democrats, he's not losing.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2010, 11:04:08 pm »
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Casey wins easily.

Next.

The Casey situation is somewhat complex.

Now that he's in the Senate, he can't hide behind the moderate label; he has an established liberal voting record. He makes no efforts to hide his friendship with the President and speaks out in favor of controversial legislation pushed by the President. This would explain why his poll numbers aren't great. He doesn't have the approval ratings people would expect for someone with that last name. Again, this isn't Auditor General or State Treasurer Casey anymore.

That being said, beating him will still be difficult for a number of reasons.

1) He's still a Casey. You'd be amazed how many people still believe he is his father. It's a golden name here.

2) It's a Presidential election year. It might not be a good Presidential election year but it will still bring out more voters. More voters know and "like" (not sure if they really like him...) Casey. That includes Independents and, yes, even some Republicans still fall for him.

3) The GOP has a great bench. Wait, what? How does that make it difficult for the Republicans to win? Well, we have a great new bench. Newcomers won't be challenging Casey. Some of the names I listed could give Casey headaches but it's far from definite that they will run.

I think Gerlach is the person Casey would want to face the least. He's a popular elected official from a major swing area in the Southeast that has survived very tough battles when people thought he was a goner.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2010, 11:07:45 pm »
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There are problems for Casey though. If the President is still sitting at a 40% approval rating, unemployment is still high, etc. then Obama is done in Pennsylvania and could take Casey down with him. Again, their friendship isn't hidden and Casey's voting record is solidly liberal. The Republicans are already hitting him on it.

There's also the fact that Casey has lost the only real race he has ever had to run (the 2002 Gubernatorial primary to Rendell). If 2012 is another 2012 and he's facing someone like Gerlach, he might not be ready to fight back. A recent article discussing the 2012 race highlighted Casey's mild manner. That's not going to work in a serious fight for a Senate seat. He was able to be mellow Bob Casey in 2006 because...well...we know why. 2012 could be a very different story.

We want this seat and while Casey obviously starts out as a favorite, he's not safe.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2010, 11:45:52 pm »
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If Casey wins a second term, it would perfectly set up a run for Governor in 2018. It's the job he has really wanted ever since he got into politics. If the pattern continues, 2018 will mean it's the Dem's turn to win the Governor's mansion here. Casey would be completing his second term and would certainly choose running for Governor over running for a third term. He'll be 58 years old in eight years. Again, assuming the pattern continues, he'd serve two terms and end his time in public life at the age of 66. If it all works out - and that's still a big if - I doubt Casey could have asked for a better resume.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2010, 02:10:12 am »
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There are problems for Casey though. If the President is still sitting at a 40% approval rating, unemployment is still high, etc. then Obama is done in Pennsylvania and could take Casey down with him. Again, their friendship isn't hidden and Casey's voting record is solidly liberal. The Republicans are already hitting him on it.

There's also the fact that Casey has lost the only real race he has ever had to run (the 2002 Gubernatorial primary to Rendell). If 2012 is another 2012 and he's facing someone like Gerlach, he might not be ready to fight back. A recent article discussing the 2012 race highlighted Casey's mild manner. That's not going to work in a serious fight for a Senate seat. He was able to be mellow Bob Casey in 2006 because...well...we know why. 2012 could be a very different story.

We want this seat and while Casey obviously starts out as a favorite, he's not safe.

Thats certainly comforting, I feared you guys wouldn't even try. Tongue At the very least his record can be tied to the President and thus his fortunes will be tied to that of Obama in PA. We should try to send this daddy wannabe resume padder to a Florida retirement home.

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2010, 06:53:55 pm »
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Obviously making good points - http://blogs.philadelphiaweekly.com/phillynow/2010/11/10/guess-who’s-the-poster-child-for-a-potential-2012-republigeddon/

This is one of the very liberal "hip" papers in Philly so they want him to run to the left.
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J. J.
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« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2010, 07:08:22 pm »
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The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #13 on: November 30, 2010, 07:10:28 pm »
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The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats.  
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #14 on: November 30, 2010, 07:20:25 pm »
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The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats.  

Yeah, Obama couldn't possibly get more unpopular to offset Democratic turnout and the Dems will always have insane turnout.  Roll Eyes
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #15 on: November 30, 2010, 07:24:53 pm »
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Obama's performance in PA during the November 2012 General Election will similar to John Kerry's performance in PA or Gore's performance in PA.
Regardless of how Obama performs in PA in 2012. Casey-D is favored to win a second term in the US Senate- but it will be by a high single digit or low double digit margin.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #16 on: November 30, 2010, 07:41:28 pm »
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The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats.  

Yeah, Obama couldn't possibly get more unpopular to offset Democratic turnout and the Dems will always have insane turnout.  Roll Eyes

Obama wont get unpopular enough to lose Pennsylvania.  Not happening. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #17 on: November 30, 2010, 08:21:42 pm »
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The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats.  

I'd say right now, there is a 50% chance for 2012 to be a worse year for the democrats than 2010 was.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #18 on: November 30, 2010, 08:23:54 pm »
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The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats.  

I'd say right now, there is a 50% chance for 2012 to be a worse year for the democrats than 2010 was.

Why would you say that?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2010, 01:33:59 am »
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The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats.  

Yeah, Obama couldn't possibly get more unpopular to offset Democratic turnout and the Dems will always have insane turnout.  Roll Eyes

Obama wont get unpopular enough to lose Pennsylvania.  Not happening. 

He's sitting at a 40% approval rating in Pennsylvania and you really want to be cocky about this? I remember some other cocky, Dem favored predictions from you about two years ago, too...
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2010, 01:36:44 am »
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The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats.  

Yeah, Obama couldn't possibly get more unpopular to offset Democratic turnout and the Dems will always have insane turnout.  Roll Eyes

Obama wont get unpopular enough to lose Pennsylvania.  Not happening. 

He's sitting at a 40% approval rating in Pennsylvania and you really want to be cocky about this? I remember some other cocky, Dem favored predictions from you about two years ago, too...

I made had no illusions about how bad this year would be for Democrats after Obama won. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #21 on: December 01, 2010, 02:11:08 am »
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The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats.  

Yeah, Obama couldn't possibly get more unpopular to offset Democratic turnout and the Dems will always have insane turnout.  Roll Eyes

Obama wont get unpopular enough to lose Pennsylvania.  Not happening. 

He's sitting at a 40% approval rating in Pennsylvania and you really want to be cocky about this? I remember some other cocky, Dem favored predictions from you about two years ago, too...

I made had no illusions about how bad this year would be for Democrats after Obama won. 

And I recall saying to whomever won, "After you, the deluge."
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Iosif
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« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2010, 02:05:26 pm »
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The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats. 

Yeah, Obama couldn't possibly get more unpopular to offset Democratic turnout and the Dems will always have insane turnout.  Roll Eyes

11 points. Obama won by 11 points. Pennsylvania is not a purple state.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: December 01, 2010, 02:11:59 pm »
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The Year of the Pennsylvania Republican could be 2012.

That year was 2010.  Obama would have to lose Pennsylvania for Casey to come anywhere close to losing and that just isnt possible in a Presidential year with the Philly Dem machine turning out 600,000 votes for Democrats.  

Yeah, Obama couldn't possibly get more unpopular to offset Democratic turnout and the Dems will always have insane turnout.  Roll Eyes

11 points. Obama won by 11 points. Pennsylvania is not a purple state.

Still living in 2008, eh? Beautiful. Only helps my side. Just a quick reminder...

Victories for the PA GOP in 2010: U.S. Senator, Governor/Lt. Governor, Five Congressional seats to take a 12-7 lead in the delegation, kept the 30-20 margin in the State Senate, net pick up of thirteen seats in the State House to take a 112-91 majority (largest ever for any party in decades).

We also hold the Attorney General spot.

Dems now hold a U.S. Senate seat, the Auditor General and State Treasurer spots.

Yeah, definitely a solid Dem state.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2010, 02:15:07 pm by Keystone Phil »Logged

Holmes
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« Reply #24 on: December 01, 2010, 02:15:37 pm »
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Will you still be living in 2010 in two years time?

Even Californian Republicans won a lot of races in 1994, winning the assembly and almost winning the senate, and most statewide offices... and that worked out well. Smiley
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