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Author Topic: Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge  (Read 21711 times)
Grumps
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« Reply #50 on: December 15, 2010, 10:34:46 am »
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Hart is second in the line of most hated PA pubs.  No chance.

How did she get on your sh*t list, and apparently that of a lot of other folks, Grumps?

She's the female version of the most hated PA pub...she's Santorum with tits........It's funny, Torie, I voted for her more than once.....and she did the closing on my house 25 years ago......but I can't stand her now and I'm glad Altmire unseated her.

That said, Torie, I wouldn't underestimate her.  The pubs love her and she'd do very well in a pub primary.
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« Reply #51 on: December 15, 2010, 11:23:51 am »
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Hart is one of those rabid social conservative types. I think she supports criminalizing all abortions with absolutely no exceptions.
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« Reply #52 on: December 15, 2010, 12:11:58 pm »
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Former Governor Schweiker to be "drafted" to run against Casey? - http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/PA_Society_De-Briefing.html


He might be our best candidate.  Smiley

I don't think any politician left office with more goodwill toward him/her than Schweiker.  In my view he'd crush Casey.......he's well liked by both sides of the aisle.

Run Mark, Run!!!

Can't argue with his credentials or poise, but I can't imagine him doing well in a primary race.
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« Reply #53 on: December 15, 2010, 12:34:03 pm »
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Former Governor Schweiker to be "drafted" to run against Casey? - http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/PA_Society_De-Briefing.html


He might be our best candidate.  Smiley

I don't think any politician left office with more goodwill toward him/her than Schweiker.  In my view he'd crush Casey.......he's well liked by both sides of the aisle.

Run Mark, Run!!!

Can't argue with his credentials or poise, but I can't imagine him doing well in a primary race.

Tough call.....he's a hard guy to attack.......so Hart couldn't go all  pit bull on him....but he's not a hardliner to my knowledge.  I'm not sure what the pub voter is going to be looking for in 2012 to be honest.
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« Reply #54 on: December 15, 2010, 01:04:49 pm »
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Whoa, Mark Schweiker may run? That'd be awesome! Then we might actually have a race on our hands. I remember reading that Schweiker, had he ran against Rendell in 2002, would have crushed him.

I'd be disappointed if he threw this out there only to decide not to run. Sad
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« Reply #55 on: December 15, 2010, 01:19:47 pm »
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Hart is second in the line of most hated PA pubs.  No chance.

How did she get on your sh*t list, and apparently that of a lot of other folks, Grumps?

She's the female version of the most hated PA pub...she's Santorum with tits........It's funny, Torie, I voted for her more than once.....and she did the closing on my house 25 years ago......but I can't stand her now and I'm glad Altmire unseated her.

That said, Torie, I wouldn't underestimate her.  The pubs love her and she'd do very well in a pub primary.

It's hard to call her the most hated Republican in Pennsylvania when she has never run statewide. She's not known to the general electorate outside of western PA.



Can't argue with his credentials or poise, but I can't imagine him doing well in a primary race.

Tough call.....he's a hard guy to attack.......so Hart couldn't go all  pit bull on him....but he's not a hardliner to my knowledge.  I'm not sure what the pub voter is going to be looking for in 2012 to be honest.

Schweiker might be more moderate but probably conservative overall. That being said, if someone like Hart gets in, he might have an uphill battle.

Whoa, Mark Schweiker may run? That'd be awesome! Then we might actually have a race on our hands. I remember reading that Schweiker, had he ran against Rendell in 2002, would have crushed him.

I'd be disappointed if he threw this out there only to decide not to run. Sad


That was 2002 though. It's not the same now even though he still has great connections.

Schweiker didn't throw this out there either. The article states that our former Lancaster GOP Chairman/ former nominee for Auditor General/2010 Lt. Gubernatorial candidate Chet Beiler wanted to start a draft movement (which is odd because I thought Beiler might look at the race himself) and Schweiker neither encouraged nor dismissed the idea.


Anyway, Quinnipiac is supposedly releasing a poll tomorrow with Casey ratings. Should be fun to see.
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« Reply #56 on: December 17, 2010, 10:57:28 pm »
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I've been trying to spread this rumor for awhile now even though I simply thought it up on my own after Casey's tax vote. Apparently, it's real - http://nepartisan.com/?p=2641
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« Reply #57 on: December 17, 2010, 11:19:08 pm »
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Yehawwww!!!!!!!!!!!!! PA most important state in the nation, once again. Wink
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« Reply #58 on: December 17, 2010, 11:28:01 pm »
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I've been trying to spread this rumor for awhile now even though I simply thought it up on my own after Casey's tax vote. Apparently, it's real - http://nepartisan.com/?p=2641

That is ludicrous. (No, Phil, this is nothing personal against you.) There is virtually no chance that Sestak would challenge Casey in a primary, there are no issues on which he can draw a distinction nor was Casey a Republican for 40 years until last week. Who would give him money, either?
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« Reply #59 on: December 17, 2010, 11:31:51 pm »
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I've been trying to spread this rumor for awhile now even though I simply thought it up on my own after Casey's tax vote. Apparently, it's real - http://nepartisan.com/?p=2641

That is ludicrous. (No, Phil, this is nothing personal against you.) There is virtually no chance that Sestak would challenge Casey in a primary, there are no issues on which he can draw a distinction nor was Casey a Republican for 40 years until last week.

Virtually no chance? The guy is going on a 67 county thank you tour...after losing.

It doesn't matter if they are basically in total agreement on the issues (that will go to show you that Casey isn't a moderate and certainly not conservative). This is all about perception and the liberal base has never been fired up for Casey. It doesn't matter that he hasn't been a Republican for forty years.

Sestak probably sees this as yet another opportunity to take down the establishment. He certainly thinks he can win the General after his performance this year and Casey is proven to be weak in primaries so why not do it? What else does he have to lose?

I don't mind if you think he'll ultimately decide against it but virtually no chance? Not acknowledging Casey's weakness with the base? Come on.
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« Reply #60 on: December 17, 2010, 11:33:26 pm »
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Some politicians who lose primaries remain active in politics in order to remain political players without necessarily running for office again.  Bob Vander Plaats is still running around in Iowa, and I have no idea what office he'd run for before 2014.
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« Reply #61 on: December 17, 2010, 11:39:10 pm »
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Sestak wants to keep his options open for the future and maintain the goodwill he built up from nearly winning a race where he was a double underdog. He needs to maintain connections because otherwise he's facing a long retirement with no next promotion.

As a Democrat, I just don't see how Casey is a reasonable target. Yes, he lost to Rendell big in the 2002 primary when Rendell swept the voters off their feet. But to me, he looks nothing like the kind of senator who draws a primary for being ideologically impure or for having flipped off the base. He's just completed one term, so he's not gone native. He won with an enormous margin in his first election. Most importantly, he has not done anything to antagonize liberals--he's been as invisible in Washington as he was on the campaign trail, has NOT insulted Obama, not held out for special deals in the Senate like a prima donna, did not raise a stink about health care or about cap and trade. There is no way for him to be viably primaried. He's not Joe Lieberman, not at all.

That leaves open the possibility he could be unviably primaried--there are often people who will take runs at sound incumbents because they believe that strongly in their cause or because they think they're setting themself up for a future run. I don't think Sestak is that stupid or has such incredibly poor judgment. I think he's probably a jerk to work for, but he hasn't shown that he takes stupid risks with no reward.
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« Reply #62 on: December 17, 2010, 11:39:56 pm »
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I doubt this will happen, but as I privately noted if it did and Sestak won, he would've deposed Phil's two least favorite in PA politics. Phil probably would like him quite a bit.
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« Reply #63 on: December 17, 2010, 11:48:48 pm »
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Some politicians who lose primaries remain active in politics in order to remain political players without necessarily running for office again.  Bob Vander Plaats is still running around in Iowa, and I have no idea what office he'd run for before 2014.

Sestak is going on a 67 county thank you tour. It's a bit different and, again, this isn't just some rumor anymore. It has been confirmed by national and state Democratic sources.

Sestak wants to keep his options open for the future and maintain the goodwill he built up from nearly winning a race where he was a double underdog. He needs to maintain connections because otherwise he's facing a long retirement with no next promotion.

And you probably would have said the same thing when he was considering a run against Specter. Again, this is different but you shouldn't speak with such certainty.

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As a Democrat, I just don't see how Casey is a reasonable target. Yes, he lost to Rendell big in the 2002 primary when Rendell swept the voters off their feet. But to me, he looks nothing like the kind of senator who draws a primary for being ideologically impure or for having flipped off the base. He's just completed one term, so he's not gone native. He won with an enormous margin in his first election. Most importantly, he has not done anything to antagonize liberals--he's been as invisible in Washington as he was on the campaign trail, has NOT insulted Obama, not held out for special deals in the Senate like a prima donna, did not raise a stink about health care or about cap and trade. There is no way for him to be viably primaried. He's not Joe Lieberman, not at all.

Those are your reasons why he shouldn't get a challenge. That's fine but that's not necessarily what most liberals think.

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I don't think Sestak is that stupid or has such incredibly poor judgment. I think he's probably a jerk to work for, but he hasn't shown that he takes stupid risks with no reward.

And we were all rolling our eyes at him for taking on Specter as we saw the polls showing him down by twenty to thirty points. Did we think it would get closer? Yeah but so many asked themselves, "Why is he throwing away a seat?"

The guy might think he has nothing to lose. 2014 is out the window if you believe the Gubernatorial election pattern here and since Sestak is more motivated by federal issues and 2016 is an awful long way away for someone that isn't all that young.

This is certainly possible and let's not forget that we're not debating my rumor here. This is something that higher ups are acknowledging.

I doubt this will happen, but as I privately noted if it did and Sestak won, he would've deposed Phil's two least favorite in PA politics. Phil probably would like him quite a bit.

I've always said that I truly respect the guy.
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« Reply #64 on: December 18, 2010, 12:10:43 am »
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Let's see how long the smiles last...








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« Reply #65 on: December 18, 2010, 12:18:47 am »
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Wow Casey is actually a tall dude.
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« Reply #66 on: December 18, 2010, 12:30:50 am »
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Wow Casey is actually a tall dude.

Very tall. I went to the Senate a few weeks ago and watching from the gallery, I could see him towering over almost everyone else there. Thune was by far the tallest but his height is known (still was taller than I expected though).
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« Reply #67 on: December 18, 2010, 04:09:55 am »
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Even if Sestak challenges Casey, which is highly doubtful, I don't see how he could gain any traction. With Specter he had the active and vocal support of liberals and an unpopular incumbent to run against.

Against Casey he will have none of those advantages. As was mentioned, during his term he never aggravated or insulted the base the way people like Lieberman and Lincoln did. And without any electability issues I don't see why Democrats would decide to oust an incumbent.
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« Reply #68 on: December 18, 2010, 04:29:05 am »
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Even if Sestak challenges Casey, which is highly doubtful, I don't see how he could gain any traction. With Specter he had the active and vocal support of liberals and an unpopular incumbent to run against.

Against Casey he will have none of those advantages. As was mentioned, during his term he never aggravated or insulted the base the way people like Lieberman and Lincoln did. And without any electability issues I don't see why Democrats would decide to oust an incumbent.

Liberals would be vocally for him against Casey, too. Sestak is their star now and they have never had a love for Casey. Do they have real gripes with Casey now? No, which many of us will gladly highlight in 2012. Bob Casey isn't a moderate and certainly not a conservative Democrat. That being said, he still doesn't fit in with the base. He doesn't want to be their guy. He'll take their votes but, at the end of the day, he still plays up this "centrist" persona. The base thinks it can do better. They want a champion for their causes. Yeah, Casey votes with them but is his heart in it? Aside from now proudly proclaiming to be a liberal champion, everyone knows where Casey would rather be and it's not in Washington.

I'm not saying this doesn't come with a risk. In ways, yes, this will be more difficult than facing Specter but Sestak probably sees a far greater reward this time. He has to be thinking to himself, "If I could get 49% in 2010, with better turn out in 2012, how the hell do I lose?" That's for the General. For the primary, he and everyone else will be thinking, "Well, we do know how Casey folds under the pressure of a real campaign." If Sestak thinks he can follow the Rendell playbook - or his own playbook from 2010 - to victory, he'll do this and he's apparently telling people he wants to pursue this.
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« Reply #69 on: December 18, 2010, 05:13:45 am »
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Liberals aren't Tea Partiers. They know that Pennsylvania isn't Vermont to have someone like Bernie Sanders elected and they are perfectly content with Casey. He is nowhere near a "villain" like Lieberman or Baucus to arouse the passions of the grassroots, and without that passion there can't be a successful primary challenge. He is a reliable liberal vote and you'll never see him on cable whining like Bayh about how liberals destroy the party.
 
If Sestak decided to go against him, I'd expect him to be treated like Kucinich.
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« Reply #70 on: December 18, 2010, 05:28:03 am »
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Liberals aren't Tea Partiers. They know that Pennsylvania isn't Vermont to have someone like Bernie Sanders elected and they are perfectly content with Casey. He is nowhere near a "villain" like Lieberman or Baucus to arouse the passions of the grassroots, and without that passion there can't be a successful primary challenge. He is a reliable liberal vote and you'll never see him on cable whining like Bayh about how liberals destroy the party.
 
If Sestak decided to go against him, I'd expect him to be treated like Kucinich.

Roll Eyes Yeah, liberal Democrats don't try to "purge the moderates." That's just the Republicans. I beg you to try to be impartial for once. Just once.

With all due respect, px, you're not in a position to gauge Casey or Sestak's level of passion among the grassroots. And to use such definite language is even more ridiculous.

You must be kidding if you think he'd be Kucinich-like in a primary against Casey though I hope they do treat him that way. They'll end up looking foolish again.
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« Reply #71 on: December 18, 2010, 05:57:15 am »
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I don't have to live in Pennsylvania to see that there is zero animus against Casey among liberals. As I mentioned he is a reliable liberal vote and he has never bashed the base the way people like Lieberman and Bayh do regularly. There was enthusiasm this year because Specter was mistrusted due to his history as a Republican and because he was a slimeball. The base wanted to elect a "True Democrat".

And who exactly are the moderates liberals tried to purge? Lincoln was primaried mainly because she was electoral roadkill.
And the Kucinich comparison was meant to mean that the blogosphere and the rest of the Democratic base aren't going to exactly line up behind him just because he will claim to be a more liberal alternative to Casey, exactly like Kucinich was ignored during his presidential runs.
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« Reply #72 on: December 18, 2010, 06:06:25 am »
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I don't have to live in Pennsylvania to see that there is zero animus against Casey among liberals. As I mentioned he is a reliable liberal vote and he has never bashed the base the way people like Lieberman and Bayh do regularly. There was enthusiasm this year because Specter was mistrusted due to his history as a Republican and because he was a slimeball. The base wanted to elect a "True Democrat".

And just because he isn't a Lieberman or Bayh doesn't mean there still isn't a distaste for the man. Casey doesn't bash the base but he isn't seen as one of them. Sestak is.

Quote
And who exactly are the moderates liberals tried to purge? Lincoln was primaried mainly because she was electoral roadkill.

No, she was challenged on ideological grounds. The electoral liability argument was a convenient excuse thrown around by the left after the fact. Lieberman is another example but you'll claim that that's justified...sort of like how we will justify challenging people like Lincoln Chafee.

Quote
And the Kucinich comparison was meant to mean that the blogosphere and the rest of the Democratic base aren't going to exactly line up behind him just because he will claim to be a more liberal alternative to Casey, exactly like Kucinich was ignored during his presidential runs.

And I'm sorry but you're a fool if you think Sestak will be ignored. The man has built up an incredible following. They might see Casey as a liberal vote but he's not truly one of them in their eyes.

Let's see if this definitely happens. If so, just watch at how ineffective Casey will be at trumpeting his liberal record. It's not something he's used to doing or wants to do. Sestak could run laps around the guy as a campaigner, too.
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« Reply #73 on: December 18, 2010, 06:12:21 am »
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Since it seems like people here don't want Sestak to run, tell me: would you honestly support Casey over Sestak in a Democratic primary?
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« Reply #74 on: December 18, 2010, 07:05:52 am »
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No. I don't want him to run because I assume he would lose. Tongue
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I may conceivably reconsider.

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