Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge

[Gravis Marketing]

And you probably would have said the same thing when he was considering a run against Specter. Again, this is different but you shouldn't speak with such certainty.

That's not what I was saying at the time.

I am confident speaking with certainty on this issue. There is a universe of possible options, but Sestak primarying Casey isn't one of them unless Sestak has extraordinarily poor judgment. In that vein, it's kind of like Palin getting picked as VP. It was impossible because it was an irrational thing to do. Then it happened. Sestak primarying Casey would be a personal disaster for him and he doesn't have the resources to do it. (See below.)

Those are your reasons why he shouldn't get a challenge. That's fine but that's not necessarily what most liberals think.

You don't think a liberal has a good sense of what most liberals think? Liberman's challenge was telegraphed by the minions at Daily Kos years before. There was mass revulsion at Specter's comments immediately after switching parties where he sounded like a Republican. There has been nothing comparable critical of Casey.

And we were all rolling our eyes at him for taking on Specter as we saw the polls showing him down by twenty to thirty points. Did we think it would get closer? Yeah but so many asked themselves, "Why is he throwing away a seat?"

I never rolled my eyes at Sestak's challenge because it made sense for him to do. More to the point, there was always potential there on paper. Specter was an incredibly flawed candidate as a democrat. Casey, not so much.

Anyway, we'll find out the answer soon enough. If Sestak intends to challenge Casey in a primary, there are two things he needs to do: 1) start raising money, because he's broke while Casey is flush, and 2) start making a case for why he should run again, while also making a case why Casey is failing Democrartic primary voters. Until he shows evidence of doing either of those things, which is above and beyond a "thank you" tour of the people who helped him in this past race, I do not see him primarying Casey. I will keep my eyes open for one of these two steps forward.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Since it seems like people here don't want Sestak to run, tell me: would you honestly support Casey over Sestak in a Democratic primary?

Allow me to weigh in.  Probably would stick with Casey.  While I'm ticked over Casey's stem cell and choice votes, I've had no issues with him elsewhere.  And I sure as hell don't want to see another Santorum or Santoomey-like candidate as our 2nd Senator.  Unfortunately I realize the Bob Casey name is a brand name even in Pennsyltucky and it would be impossible for Casey to lose.

[realisticidealist]

Since it seems like people here don't want Sestak to run, tell me: would you honestly support Casey over Sestak in a Democratic primary?

I, for probably the only one, completely support Casey. He is my favorite Senator, and I wish more Democrats were like him ideologically. If I lived in Pennsylvania, I would actively volunteer for his campaign in a heartbeat. I definitely don't speak for most liberals though.

That said, if Sestak runs, it is hard for me to see Casey losing anything whatsoever outside of Philadelphia, Montgomery, and maybe a few other collar counties.

[Gravis Marketing]

I'd vote for Casey because I think he's a stronger general election candidate by virtue of his incumbency and popularity and I see no reason to replace him.

[Keystone Phil]

While I'm ticked over Casey's stem cell and choice votes

Casey has voted Pro Choice.

it would be impossible for Casey to lose.

Some people still haven't learned their lesson...

39% approval rating and only 40% say he deserves re-election. A sign of the times? Sure but also a sign that outside of safe districts, no one is invincible (and even then they aren't always safe).

That said, if Sestak runs, it is hard for me to see Casey losing anything whatsoever outside of Philadelphia, Montgomery, and maybe a few other collar counties.

Casey would win almost all of the other counties in the state but Sestak would obviously win Delaware county, too. Please note that Rendell only won ten counties in 2002 and beat Casey 56% to 44%.

I'd vote for Casey because I think he's a stronger general election candidate by virtue of his incumbency and popularity and I see no reason to replace him.

Well, he isn't that popular. 39% approval rating might be common for these times but it proves that he isn't popular.

That's not what I was saying at the time.

I am confident speaking with certainty on this issue. There is a universe of possible options, but Sestak primarying Casey isn't one of them unless Sestak has extraordinarily poor judgment. In that vein, it's kind of like Palin getting picked as VP. It was impossible because it was an irrational thing to do. Then it happened. Sestak primarying Casey would be a personal disaster for him and he doesn't have the resources to do it. (See below.)

That's totally subjective.

"I am confident speaking on this issue because Sestak going against my advice is clearly a bad idea." That doesn't provide enough background to back up your points.

You don't think a liberal has a good sense of what most liberals think?

It doesn't mean you know how they feel elsewhere.

Just because Casey hasn't made comments to piss off liberals doesn't mean they care for him.

And too many of you are simply arguing with me on this subject instead of looking at what's actually being said. Take issue with the source, not me. There's an update today - http://nepartisan.com/?p=2658

[Landslide Lyndon]

Phil believes, despite all evidence to the contrary, that there is a secret liberal Tea Party-like society awaiting to unleash primary challenges against Democrats they don't deem good enough. From what I see when the Democratic grassroots and netroots put someone in their cross-hair they are hardly silent about it. In fact they are quite vocal in order to push them to the left (just like Specter did).

Lincoln's challenge was mainly due to her horrible numbers. Acting like an asshole during the HCR debate was just an added incentive. Ben Nelson and Evan Bayh are probably even more despised but nobody challenged them or plans to do so. I guarantee you that if polls showed her comfortably then nobody would have bothered.

[You kip if you want to...]

Not that he'd win, but i'm all for a Sestak run. Sestak losing (along with Giannoulias) was one of the biggest disappointments of the night, for me.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil believes, despite all evidence to the contrary, that there is a secret liberal Tea Party-like society awaiting to unleash primary challenges against Democrats they don't deem good enough. From what I see when the Democratic grassroots and netroots put someone in their cross-hair they are hardly silent about it. In fact they are quite vocal in order to push them to the left (just like Specter did).

Px, I know you don't like to debate with anything more than ridiculous rhetoric. You love using boogey man arguments. Not sure what your point is in saying the Democratic base isn't silent about putting someone in their cross-hair. The Tea Party is? They aren't vocal in order to push their officials further right? Your point makes zero sense here but that's common. You don't want to argue about the story so you change the subject.

Lincoln's challenge was mainly due to her horrible numbers.

Again, that's just the left's excuse after the fact.

Ben Nelson and Evan Bayh are probably even more despised but nobody challenged them or plans to do so.

They didn't get to. They forced Bayh out. You better believe he would have had a challenge if he ran again. Maybe nothing serious though since it's Indiana. Same with Nelson.

I guarantee you that if polls showed her comfortably then nobody would have bothered.

Totally disagree but that's beyond the point. Again, you fail to argue about the story. You ignore the issue and want to make this a discussion about me alleging something I'm not alleging at all.

I'll provide you another opportunity; argue against the story itself - http://nepartisan.com/?p=2658

Stop saying, "Sestak isn't doing this. This movement doesn't exist. There's no leftist Tea Party." Argue the facts of the story.

[Gravis Marketing]

Phil, would you agree with me that Sestak needs to start serious fundraising and making statements about his own candidacy or Casey's deficiencies in order to run in the primary next year? I can accept if you don't accept my arguments, but can we establish a basis for testing your hypothesis that he is running, moving forward?

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, would you agree with me that Sestak needs to start serious fundraising and making statements about his own candidacy or Casey's deficiencies in order to run in the primary next year? I can accept if you don't accept my arguments, but can we establish a basis for testing your hypothesis that he is running, moving forward?

Of course. Would you agree that Casey should start prepping for what's probably only his second serious challenge ever if Sestak is talking about running? 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Phil believes, despite all evidence to the contrary, that there is a secret liberal Tea Party-like society awaiting to unleash primary challenges against Democrats they don't deem good enough. From what I see when the Democratic grassroots and netroots put someone in their cross-hair they are hardly silent about it. In fact they are quite vocal in order to push them to the left (just like Specter did).

Px, I know you don't like to debate with anything more than ridiculous rhetoric. You love using boogey man arguments. Not sure what your point is in saying the Democratic base isn't silent about putting someone in their cross-hair. The Tea Party is? They aren't vocal in order to push their officials further right? Your point makes zero sense here but that's common. You don't want to argue about the story so you change the subject.

Lincoln's challenge was mainly due to her horrible numbers.

Again, that's just the left's excuse after the fact.

Ben Nelson and Evan Bayh are probably even more despised but nobody challenged them or plans to do so.

They didn't get to. They forced Bayh out. You better believe he would have had a challenge if he ran again. Maybe nothing serious though since it's Indiana. Same with Nelson.

I guarantee you that if polls showed her comfortably then nobody would have bothered.

Totally disagree but that's beyond the point. Again, you fail to argue about the story. You ignore the issue and want to make this a discussion about me alleging something I'm not alleging at all.

I'll provide you another opportunity; argue against the story itself - http://nepartisan.com/?p=2658

Stop saying, "Sestak isn't doing this. This movement doesn't exist. There's no leftist Tea Party." Argue the facts of the story.

1)What's there that you don't understand? If liberals wanted to take on Casey then we'd already been reading on the blogs what a horrible senator he is and how he is a traitor to liberal causes.
Kos took potshots against Tester today for voting against the DREAM act. Do you have anything similar about Casey?

2)I didn't expect you to be so ill informed about Bayh. He bowed out voluntarily one day before filing for the primaries was over, so there was no challenge against him, nor the liberals had any time to mount one.

And who are "they" that forced him into retirement? The mob? Soros?

[Keystone Phil]

1)What's there that you don't understand? If liberals wanted to take on Casey then we'd already been reading on the blogs what a horrible senator he is and how he is a traitor to liberal causes.
Kos took potshots against Tester today for voting against the DREAM act. Do you have anything similar about Casey?

Believe it or not, politics doesn't always revolve around what happens from day to day on one blog!

By the way, I take that as admitting Kos is the left wing's version of a Tea Party.

2)I didn't expect you to be so ill informed about Bayh. He bowed out voluntarily one day before filing for the primaries was over, so there was no challenge against him, nor the liberals had any time to mount one.

I made a second point about why he didn't get a challenge. Didn't expect you to have trouble reading.

Plus, that was before he really went off against the left. If he ran for Governor, you don't think the left would be clamoring for a primary opponent (again, not that he'd get a serious one because it's Indiana)?

And who are "they" that forced him into retirement? The mob? Soros?

Yeah, the Tea Party isn't behind primary challenges to Republicans. It's always the mob or Murdoch.

You take rhetoric to a whole new level.

[Gravis Marketing]

Phil,

What is your evidence that there was going to be a liberal primary challenge to Bayh?

Don't tell me why you think it was going to happen, based on what you think liberals want to do. Cite evidence that there was a challenger or challengers and this drove Bayh out of his seat.

Because if you can't, the absence of a challenge coupled with the facts of how Bayh left office disprove the theory you put forth.

That's where we stand.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil,

What is your evidence that there was going to be a liberal primary challenge to Bayh?

Don't tell me why you think it was going to happen, based on what you think liberals want to do. Cite evidence that there was a challenger or challengers and this drove Bayh out of his seat.

I didn't say there was an imminent primary challenge; I said it drove him to retirement and he essentially said the same.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Phil,

What is your evidence that there was going to be a liberal primary challenge to Bayh?

Don't tell me why you think it was going to happen, based on what you think liberals want to do. Cite evidence that there was a challenger or challengers and this drove Bayh out of his seat.

I didn't say there was an imminent primary challenge; I said it drove him to retirement and he essentially said the same.

In other words, you made it all up.

[Jayhawker]

Phil,

What is your evidence that there was going to be a liberal primary challenge to Bayh?

Don't tell me why you think it was going to happen, based on what you think liberals want to do. Cite evidence that there was a challenger or challengers and this drove Bayh out of his seat.

I didn't say there was an imminent primary challenge; I said it drove him to retirement and he essentially said the same.

Agreed. Many in the Indiana Democratic Party were very happy that Bayh dropped out, because his record isn't pleasing to the establishment. However, the person who ended up running is probably even more conservative than Bayh is.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil,

What is your evidence that there was going to be a liberal primary challenge to Bayh?

Don't tell me why you think it was going to happen, based on what you think liberals want to do. Cite evidence that there was a challenger or challengers and this drove Bayh out of his seat.

I didn't say there was an imminent primary challenge; I said it drove him to retirement and he essentially said the same.

In other words, you made it all up.

I can deal with all of your other nonsense but saying I lied? No.

What did I make up? I said his issues with the left led to his retirement. He has essentially said the same. I said if he ran for Governor, after all of his recent comments, you better believe he would have received a primary challenge. I also said that if he ran in 2010, he would have received a challenge. Now it obviously wasn't going to be anything serious but if he went against the left as often as he did after his announcement, they would have been screaming for a real challenge.

We're only discussing this because you're not making a point when it comes to Sestak. You don't want to argue the facts of the story. You're only interested in straw man arguments.

[Keystone Phil]

In your next post, px, please address at least one of the two article I posted concerning a possible Sestak run. None of your usual laughable rhetoric about Tea Parties or Chris Christie or Evan Bayh. Try your hardest!

[Gravis Marketing]

I didn't say there was an imminent primary challenge; I said it drove him to retirement and he essentially said the same.

What did Bayh say? Can you find a link to that speech or interview?

[Sam Spade]

I really don't see how Casey is beaten by anyone in a primary.  He is really dumb, though, on the intelligence scale.

As for the rest of this spat, all I have to say is "calm down, folks." 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, anyone want to lay odds on whether this thread will be bigger than PA-13 by election day?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I didn't say there was an imminent primary challenge; I said it drove him to retirement and he essentially said the same.

What did Bayh say? Can you find a link to that speech or interview?

There is none. Bayh always whines about the liberals but I think that he just chickened out when he saw that he might have to fight for his reelection.
The rest are conspiracy theories.

[Keystone Phil]

I didn't say there was an imminent primary challenge; I said it drove him to retirement and he essentially said the same.

What did Bayh say? Can you find a link to that speech or interview?

There is none. Bayh always whines about the liberals but I think that he just chickened out when he saw that he might have to fight for his reelection.
The rest are conspiracy theories.

...and it is pretty well known that he didn't like what they were doing to the party. That's part of his "whining" - http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-6214377-503544.html

Still waiting on you to address the Sestak stories, px.

[Landslide Lyndon]

...and it is pretty well known that he didn't like what they were doing to the party. That's part of his "whining" - http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-6214377-503544.html

Still waiting on you to address the Sestak stories, px.

Bayh says the same thing for years now. It's part of the scthick that makes him so popular with the Broder/Milbank crowd. He said the same things back in 2002, '04 and '06 about the Iraq War and Lieberman's defeat.

As for the stories, I'll believe it when I see it.

[J. J.]

So, anyone want to lay odds on whether this thread will be bigger than PA-13 by election day?

Exactly what I was thinking.