Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge

[Keystone Phil]

Phil might find this interesting (or not, since it is an internal):

http://www.politicspa.com/smith-internal-poll-smith-leads-senate-primary/30352/

I saw.    It's all over Facebook when you have political friends that are working for Smith's campaign.


I believe the numbers but they're probably a bit inflated for Smith. He's already running ads so that has helped build his name recognition. It looks like good news for everyone else especially Welch. This is a wide open race. Good to see my top three candidates polling within the top four spots.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith has a whopping $4.4 million on hand.

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Burns won the Central PA State Committee straw poll yesterday.


Burns - 32
Rohrer - 22
Welch - 22
Smith - 20
Christian - 2
Scaringi - 1


The "others" should be dropping out shortly with petition circulation season beginning in two weeks. This is clearly a four man race: Rohrer, Smith, Burns and Welch.

[Keystone Phil]

Cummings has dropped out and endorsed Burns. Not that it matters. She wasn't a factor anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

Welch won the Northeast PA State Committee Caucus straw poll with 44% of the vote. Not sure on the exact breakdown but Welch getting that much support in a crowded field is impressive. Kind of surprising that Rohrer didn't win there.

[Keystone Phil]

Continuing with the "Phil talks to himself" thread...

In a blow to Welch, the Southeast caucus voted tonight to not endorse in the Senate race. This is probably because of fellow SE PA candidate David Christian who, somewhat surprisingly, had a Super PAC swoop in to help him out by attacking Welch and Smith in a series of mailers to State Committee members.

[Keystone Phil]

The Governor apparently started calling party leaders yesterday, asking them to support Welch. It wasn't enough to sway the SE caucus but this is a big boost for Welch overall. This likely means an endorsement from State Committee.

[Keystone Phil]

State Committee is holding its endorsement vote right now. Welch is expected to get it thanks to some serious arm twisting by the Governor (I saw some of it first hand when I was up there last night). Not sure why Corbett is pushing so hard for it but he is. This will be a big boost to Welch but Smith will be staying in regardless. Same with Rohrer (but that's understood). Burns might be out.

[Keystone Phil]

Despite the best efforts of almost every candidate other than Welch, the motion to endorse has passed. Welch should have this locked up.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Which one is Welch? The one who made the aborted run for PA-06 in 2010?

[Keystone Phil]

Welch officially endorsed. No word on whether or not Burns is out.

Which one is Welch? The one who made the aborted run for PA-06 in 2010?

He ran and dropped out in PA 6 and PA 7 in 2010.

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Burns has dropped out.

I only have to choose between Welch and Smith now but I'm even more undecided than ever before.

[Keystone Phil]

Quinnipiac - Casey has a 46% to 27% approval rating. He has a surprising high 31% approval rating amongst Republicans (there's that Casey name!) but only 8% would vote for him. He leads a hypothetical Republican by twelve - 46% to 34%. 48% say he deserves re-election. In other news, Toomey has a 42% to 28% approval rating.

[Keystone Phil]

PPP showing the typical Casey lukewarm ratings (especially with Dems) as well. Rohrer leading in the primary with about half undecided. I'll post the poll in the poll board...until noticing that Inks did it.

[Keystone Phil]

Welch incorporates Santorum in his first TV ad - http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Di34-wlq4TB0&v=i34-wlq4TB0&gl=US


Very wise strategic move for a candidate with problems with most of the base. I guess it also helps that Welch's media consultant is also Santorum's but I believe Welch's people also have ties to the Romney campaign.

[redcommander]

Do you know why Welch became a Republican? I read that he was formerly a Democrat.

[Keystone Phil]

Do you know why Welch became a Republican? I read that he was formerly a Democrat.

He was a Republican then switched to Dem in 2008 to vote for Obama in the primary (says he became disillusioned with the GOP on spending matters). He switched back to Republican and voted for McCain but the Obama vote is obviously pissing a lot of people off. Also, while still a Republican, he helped Sestak in 2006.

Welch ran into even more trouble when the Governor claimed that Welch switched as part of Operation Chaos. The problem? Operation Chaos was for people to vote for Hillary, not Obama. This gaffe has hurt Welch even more.

I'm thrilled to be going to the Senate debate next week here in Philly. It's the first time I'll be hearing from the candidates in a debate. Here's hoping I'll decide on a candidate by this time next week.

[Senator Snowstalker]

[Keystone Phil]

Debate tonight at the Union League. I serve on the board of one of the groups that is hosting so I'll be there and hope to finally get a good idea as to whom I'll be supporting. If you're a Pennsylvanian and watch to watch, tune into PCN at 6:30.

[Keystone Phil]

Rohrer has a Perry-esque moment. Freezes for awhile when asked to name a time when Casey was socially liberal, then mentions Obamacare, then freezes again and admits he was caught off guard. Ouch.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

[redcommander]

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?

[smoltchanov]

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?

You consider him electable? Even remotely???

[Keystone Phil]

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?

Rohrer is a very intelligent and articulate man. That said, I fear a very easy Casey win if he was the nominee. Scaringi - the former Santorum aide - isn't going to come close to winning the primary.

[redcommander]

Smith: "...Specter ran in 2010?"

Wow. Rohrer didn't have the biggest gaffe tonight. This is horrible. He doesn't remember candidates he voted for and then asked what Welch had for breakfast three weeks ago. Terrible attempt at a save. Your votes are a little more important, Tom.

I don't trust Welch or his reasons for changing his voter registration. And Rohrer seems to much in the mold of the Buck and Angle, and we all know how their races went. Is there anyone remotely electable even running? What about that former Santorum aide?

Rohrer is a very intelligent and articulate man. That said, I fear a very easy Casey win if he was the nominee. Scaringi - the former Santorum aide - isn't going to come close to winning the primary.

What makes him unelectable?