Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge

[Keystone Phil]

Casey leads Smith in the latest F&M poll - 42% to 21%

http://triblive.com/state/1921435-74/percent-casey-obama-smith-poll-voters-senate-campaign-race-republican

[asexual trans victimologist]

Casey leads Smith in the latest F&M poll - 42% to 21%

http://triblive.com/state/1921435-74/percent-casey-obama-smith-poll-voters-senate-campaign-race-republican

What the Hell? Is Smith just really not well-known or something, or is F&M not a good pollster?

[Gravis Marketing]

Casey leads Smith in the latest F&M poll - 42% to 21%

http://triblive.com/state/1921435-74/percent-casey-obama-smith-poll-voters-senate-campaign-race-republican

What the Hell? Is Smith just really not well-known or something, or is F&M not a good pollster?

The Pres poll has high undecideds, too.

[Keystone Phil]

It's not that F&M isn't a good pollster (though Santorum feels differently ). It's just that they don't push leaners so they always have very high undecideds. Always. Other polling has Smith with surprisingly high name recognition but I don't buy that. He had a lot of TV ads and a few mailers before the primary but the race didn't get much coverage at all. I think he's only really known among the base.

[Keystone Phil]

Latest Rasmussen shows Casey up 49% to 38%. Seems dead on.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Phil, do you expect those undecideds will break any particular way, or are many of them low-information types who might not vote?

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, do you expect those undecideds will break any particular way, or are many of them low-information types who might not vote?

Probably a fairly even split with Casey getting a slight edge. If I had to put money on it, as of now, I see it ending 56-57% to 44-43%.

[krazen1211]

Casey is making a whisper campaign about 2014 governor. It is after all the job he wanted before Rendell stomped him in the 2002 primary.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey is making news by refusing to say he won't run for Governor in 2014. When he was pressed for an answer, he said he'd serve out his full term if he wins but he has said that before.

I think 2018 is far more likely but with word that Corbett might not run again, Casey would have a great opportunity (with nothing to lose assuming he wins re-election to the Senate) by running in two years.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey is making a whisper campaign about 2014 governor. It is after all the job he wanted before Rendell stomped him in the 2002 primary.

Beat me by two minutes.

Everyone knows that's what he has always wanted. I don't doubt that he will run again but while 2014 really isn't a huge risk, 2018 is even less of a risk.

[krazen1211]

Casey is making a whisper campaign about 2014 governor. It is after all the job he wanted before Rendell stomped him in the 2002 primary.

Beat me by two minutes.

Everyone knows that's what he has always wanted. I don't doubt that he will run again but while 2014 really isn't a huge risk, 2018 is even less of a risk.

True, but he would have to vacate the Senate seat and leave it open in the 2018 general, as opposed to merely resigning and appointing a Wofford like successor to run in a 2015 special as an incumbent.

The latter path might help the Democrats hold the seat. Of course Gerlach and Meehan will take a good long look at that seat in a 2015 special.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't think he wants to go for a third term in the Senate anyway so that negates the idea of a 2018 risk. It's also less of a risk because of the PA pattern: eight years in the Governor's Mansion for one party and then a flip. A lot of people take that pattern very seriously so Casey might fear going for it in 2014 and losing (again).

[MD]

Today, Corbett looks like he is vulnerable.   It might be the right time for him to strike in 14.  However, Meehan makes for a strong candidate for that seat especially if Obama is re-elected.  If an off-year, he could win it quite easily.   2014 already looks like a tough cycle for the D's in the Senate.  As many as a dozen could have competitive races while the R seats all look safe.  Some of that is a function of how well the D's did in 08.  So Casey leaving could put them in peril.    We'll see.

[Keystone Phil]

The Gubernatorial race is in 2014. The Senate race isn't until 2018 so Casey wouldn't be giving up his seat to run for Governor. That doesn't mean it isn't a risk though even with Corbett looking vulnerable.

[MD]

Phil - I was assuming a Casey win against Corbett in 14.   Then you would have either Meehan or Gerlach run in the 15 special against who knows?   Maybe Sestak again.  I think Meehan makes a better candidate than Gerlach.  I should have made my point a bit more clear.  Sorry.   14 could be an ugly cycle for D Senators.  A dozen races on that side will be competitive to one degree or another.   Pretty much zero on the R side (that will change in 16).   Anyway, Casey winning the gov race could prove disasterous to the D's in the Senate. 

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, I understand. I agree, Meehan or Gerlach could be very strong candidates.

[Keystone Phil]

The Tale of Two Smith's - Libertarian Rayburn Smith vs. Republican Tom Smith - http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/the-third-party-challenge-from-hell-132066.html

Rayburn's signatures are being challenged.

As the article states, Casey, Sr. lost to a teacher and ice cream salesman with the same name (first and last) in his 1978 Dem primary for Lt. Governor. Casey, Sr. ran for Governor in 1986 as the "Real Bob Casey."

[Mr.Phips]

If I were Democrats and Casey, I would be waiting until 2018 to run for governor, when I would be highly likely to win given the eight year cycle.  This would allow Democrats to break apart the GOP gerrymander in the state.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If you are Bob Casey then you want the Governorship whenever you can get it for your own reasons and not because it is convenient for the Democratic party.

[Keystone Phil]

So we have some closer polls here now. As others have touched on, the narrowing is because of Smith’s aggressive ad campaign. He’s even hammering away in the SE. And it isn’t just because Smith is being seen and heard from more: the ads are actually pretty effective. Casey just started hitting the airwaves yesterday (and with two negative ads about “Tea Party Tom”) so he got the wake up call. Definitely spending earlier (and a lot more since Smith will dump a ton into this) than he imagined. It’s important to note though that Smith is still trailing.

[JulioMadrid]

Welcome back, Phil!!

Hilariously enough, with a good candidate (Gerlach comes to mind) this race could have been a tie.

[Keystone Phil]

Gerlach wouldn't have had tons upon tons of money to pour into this race. I think he's angling for something statewide down the road though.

[knyphausen]

I think this race will reverse to the status-quo before Smith's ad barrage once Casey's ads have been playing for a few weeks. Casey is a good fit for the state and his being pro-life probably helps him in areas of the state where Obama is unpopular.

[Keystone Phil]

Smith plays the empty chair card against Casey - http://www.politicspa.com/new-more-negative-smith-ad-hits-casey-watch-video/42270/

[Keystone Phil]

Still no debate set (notice the wording: the League of Women voters is trying to arrange something, not the candidates) - http://m.abc27.com/default.aspx?pid=2705&wnfeedurl=http%3a%2f%2fwww.abc27.com%2fstory%2f19784442%2fstill-no-debate-set-in-pas-race-for-us-senate%3fclienttype%3drssstory