Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

They need someone from out west or from the Philly burbs.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There are problems for Casey though. If the President is still sitting at a 40% approval rating, unemployment is still high, etc. then Obama is done in Pennsylvania and could take Casey down with him. Again, their friendship isn't hidden and Casey's voting record is solidly liberal. The Republicans are already hitting him on it.

There's also the fact that Casey has lost the only real race he has ever had to run (the 2002 Gubernatorial primary to Rendell). If 2012 is another 2012 and he's facing someone like Gerlach, he might not be ready to fight back. A recent article discussing the 2012 race highlighted Casey's mild manner. That's not going to work in a serious fight for a Senate seat. He was able to be mellow Bob Casey in 2006 because...well...we know why. 2012 could be a very different story.

We want this seat and while Casey obviously starts out as a favorite, he's not safe.

Thats certainly comforting, I feared you guys wouldn't even try. At the very least his record can be tied to the President and thus his fortunes will be tied to that of Obama in PA. We should try to send this daddy wannabe resume padder to a Florida retirement home.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Casey apparently mentioned that he'd vote for the tax compromise in a speech at Pennsylvania Society.

Sestak vs. Casey primary in 2012, anyone? 

I wouldn't be surprised to see some SE liberal take him on in the primary in the hopes of repeating 2002. Whether its someone as big as Sestak or a nobody would determine how it develops. It would be a hell of a thing to see though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yehawwww!!!!!!!!!!!!! PA most important state in the nation, once again.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The other wildcard is if the GOP nominee is someone pro-choice like Gerlach. With Casey being pro-life, things could get interesting.

Gerlach is Pro Life.

I guess I made assumptions based on his membership in the Republican Main Street Partnership but I somehow doubt he is pro-life in the sense that Toomey and Santorum are, or else he would lose in the 6th.

What about Tom Ridge? He seems like he actually would be favored over Casey.

I wouldn't do that on a regular basis. There are some members of the Main Street Partnership that are also in the Republican Study Committee.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Before he dropped out, Santorum was giving an interview in which he stated how he was the first Conservative to "break through the glass ceiling" in what had been a moderate to liberal state GOP. He then said that "some people want to see us go back to that kind of party in PA".

Was he referring to Welch's candidacy, by any chance?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Does Smith have any redeeming qualities other then his willingness to spend money? Does he have a lot more where that came from?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If you are Bob Casey then you want the Governorship whenever you can get it for your own reasons and not because it is convenient for the Democratic party.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Smith should prepare like crazy for that one debate. Casey is a notorious bore, and Smith might be able to dominate the event if properly prepared. I hope that since he push for it more, that such is what is going on behind the scenes.

If Smith can keep it close with that cash, the viewership of the debate by undecideds will be high. A strong performance by Smith, and then Casey's people really will have reason to panic.

He probably still wins, but just seeing him squirm makes me feel good. At least he won't walk into the seat again because of his name, his opponent's controversial history and Bush's low approval ratings/Dem wave. This time he shall have to work for it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

How organized is Smith's campaign? Especially in your neck of the woods? Can Smith outpoll Romney out West?