the upper Midwest point 2: polls

[they don't love you like i love you]

I never had any doubt Kerry would win Minnesota, but right before the election many people were saying it would be the closest state in the country. It wasn't even in the top 8. Most put Wisconsin in Bush's column. He didn't get it. Iowa was considered to be solid for Bush. He got it by less than a point.

But of course the polls did show these predictions to be reasonable. So then is then do pollsters tend to overestimate Republican support in the upper Midwest? If so, why and how can it end?

[The Dowager Mod]

Wisconsin seems hard to poll.

[Sam Spade]

If you would have asked me a couple of days before the election any trends I saw (last minute 2-3% shifts), I would have said that Bush was losing ground in Iowa and Wisconsin and Minnesota too, and was gaining ground in Ohio and Michigan.  In fact, you could see a strong slippage for Bush in Wisconsin and Iowa over the last few weeks, as a good portion of those swing Catholic voters there swung away from him.

I was pretty much already convinced that Florida would not be that close this year.

In Minnesota, the DFL had one of the best turnouts they've had in years statewide.  Add to that Bush lost a number of votes in rural counties and the Republican GOTV effort there was not particularly strong this time around, and you have a recipe for what happened.

The pollsters definitely screwed up Wisconsin, but they always do that.

Look at it this way as well, most of the pollsters really screwed up the South, especially Florida, as well.  When can this end as well?

It won't end, unfortunately.

[Cashcow]

The last FOX News poll showed Kerry ahead by five in Florida. That was amusing.

[George W. Bush]

Iowa was NOT solid Bush!

[they don't love you like i love you]

yeah, that's my point. the poll watchers weren't expecting it to be so close.

[bushforever]

What is with this area anyway??  They are so unique in that they have huge blocks of rural votes.  It's the area I like to call Cedar.  Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, Iowa City, Quad Cities, Ottumwa, Madison, Janesville, LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Winona, Albert Lea, Des Moines, Plattville, and just about every rural county in between.  While at the same time, suburban Chicago and suburban Milwaukee vote heavily Republican in comparison.  It's always intrigued me how the Dems have consitently edged out the Republicans here in rural and small-city America.  Is it the unions?  Is it the proximity to water?  Is it lack of GOP attn.?  This area is by far, the exception to every rule and stereotype about voting demographics/geography.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

What is with this area anyway??  They are so unique in that they have huge blocks of rural votes.  It's the area I like to call Cedar.  Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, Iowa City, Quad Cities, Ottumwa, Madison, Janesville, LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Winona, Albert Lea, Des Moines, Plattville, and just about every rural county in between.  While at the same time, suburban Chicago and suburban Milwaukee vote heavily Republican in comparison.  It's always intrigued me how the Dems have consitently edged out the Republicans here in rural and small-city America.  Is it the unions?  Is it the proximity to water?  Is it lack of GOP attn.?  This area is by far, the exception to every rule and stereotype about voting demographics/geography.

It's part of a dwindling Farmer-Progressive political cuture that is slowly being taken over by the Flyover-Megachurch political culture.  It was once a much larger area, spreading all over the upper Mississippi valley and into the Dakotas.  The area of Southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and Eastern Iowa is one of the last strongholds.  By 2020, only the cities will be Democrat, and the whole countryside will be Republican, just like rural Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and eastern Wisconsin.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Wisconsin seems hard to poll.

I would use the following model:

1. Poll Green Bay, Appleton, and Oshkosh.
2. Shift the numbers 5% towards the Democrat.

Hey, it would have yielded a lot more accurate numbers than what we got out of the pollsters.

[bushforever]

What is with this area anyway??  They are so unique in that they have huge blocks of rural votes.  It's the area I like to call Cedar.  Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, Iowa City, Quad Cities, Ottumwa, Madison, Janesville, LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Winona, Albert Lea, Des Moines, Plattville, and just about every rural county in between.  While at the same time, suburban Chicago and suburban Milwaukee vote heavily Republican in comparison.  It's always intrigued me how the Dems have consitently edged out the Republicans here in rural and small-city America.  Is it the unions?  Is it the proximity to water?  Is it lack of GOP attn.?  This area is by far, the exception to every rule and stereotype about voting demographics/geography.

It's part of a rapidly dwindling Farmer-Progressive political cuture that is slowly being taken over by the Flyover-Megachurch political culture.  It was once a much larger area, spreading all over the upper Mississippi valley and into the Dakotas.  The area of Southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and Eastern Iowa is one of the last strongholds.  By 2020, only the cities will be Democrat, and the whole countryside will be Republican, just like rural Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and eastern Wisconsin.

Really?  Well, I'm certainly glad about that.  I guess, county-wise, this area is trending GOP.  I wonder if suburban growth will ever take off in any of these cities?  It usually yields good results for the GOP but places like Sun Prairie, WI and Coralville, IA have done little for the GOP.  I wonder if that will change.  I'm also discouraged that Bush did worse in Grant Co., WI, a rural place where he campaigned heavily.

[opebo]

What is with this area anyway??  They are so unique in that they have huge blocks of rural votes.  It's the area I like to call Cedar.  Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, Iowa City, Quad Cities, Ottumwa, Madison, Janesville, LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Winona, Albert Lea, Des Moines, Plattville, and just about every rural county in between.  While at the same time, suburban Chicago and suburban Milwaukee vote heavily Republican in comparison.  It's always intrigued me how the Dems have consitently edged out the Republicans here in rural and small-city America.  Is it the unions?  Is it the proximity to water?  Is it lack of GOP attn.?  This area is by far, the exception to every rule and stereotype about voting demographics/geography.

This is a very curious group in American politics - rural working classes who actually vote in their economic interest. 

[they don't love you like i love you]

What is with this area anyway??  They are so unique in that they have huge blocks of rural votes.  It's the area I like to call Cedar.  Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque, Iowa City, Quad Cities, Ottumwa, Madison, Janesville, LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Winona, Albert Lea, Des Moines, Plattville, and just about every rural county in between.  While at the same time, suburban Chicago and suburban Milwaukee vote heavily Republican in comparison.  It's always intrigued me how the Dems have consitently edged out the Republicans here in rural and small-city America.  Is it the unions?  Is it the proximity to water?  Is it lack of GOP attn.?  This area is by far, the exception to every rule and stereotype about voting demographics/geography.

It's part of a dwindling Farmer-Progressive political cuture that is slowly being taken over by the Flyover-Megachurch political culture.  It was once a much larger area, spreading all over the upper Mississippi valley and into the Dakotas.  The area of Southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and Eastern Iowa is one of the last strongholds.  By 2020, only the cities will be Democrat, and the whole countryside will be Republican, just like rural Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and eastern Wisconsin.

not in all cases. I don't know about Iowa, but that part of Southeast Minnesota is not trending Republican at all, and the area around Duluth definately won't be going Republican any time soon.

Also, people in the rural and Democratic parts of the upper Midwest for the most part do not like the religious right. Even if they are somewhat socially conservative, they don't appreciate fundamentalists of the Falwell/Robertson variety telling them what to do, and there aren't many people in fundamentalist churches out there (mostly ethnic Catholic/Lutheran). That's why I don't think wedge issues will work here like they have in other areas. I've noticed that most of the evangelical wackos in Minnesota tend to be based out of the suburbs and I've seen many more churches there than in the rural parts, another reason I hate suburbs.

[Ben.]

Hell i thought that Kerry would do better in OH than WI!

[MN-Troy]

I never had any doubt Kerry would win Minnesota, but right before the election many people were saying it would be the closest state in the country. It wasn't even in the top 8. Most put Wisconsin in Bush's column. He didn't get it. Iowa was considered to be solid for Bush. He got it by less than a point.

But of course the polls did show these predictions to be reasonable. So then is then do pollsters tend to overestimate Republican support in the upper Midwest? If so, why and how can it end?

Minnesota Real Clear Politics average was Kerry 3.2; Kerry won by 3.4%. As Sam Spade noted, the Democrats in Minnesota had a better GOTV drive in this state. Conversely, the time and money Democrats spent in this generally safe state could have been poured into other states.

Iowa This state was never solid Bush. RCP average was .3%; Bush won it by .9%

Wisconsin RCP average was .9% Bush; Kerry won it by .4%. Not a huge swing by any stretch of the imagination.

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When you average out the state polls (and ignore anecdotal evidence) in the upper Midwest, the poll numbers are actually close. There might be a few outliers here and there, but nothing that would construed an overestimation of Republican support.

[Sam Spade]

Hell i thought that Kerry would do better in OH than WI!

3 weeks before the election, maybe. 

But in the last week, when looking at the polls, it was pretty easy to tell that Bush was leading in Ohio by 2-3% and that Wisconsin was probably tied (considering the polls were all over the place there).

If you want to go to a place where the polls were totally wrong, per usual, try Florida.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I never had any doubt Kerry would win Minnesota, but right before the election many people were saying it would be the closest state in the country. It wasn't even in the top 8. Most put Wisconsin in Bush's column. He didn't get it. Iowa was considered to be solid for Bush. He got it by less than a point.

But of course the polls did show these predictions to be reasonable. So then is then do pollsters tend to overestimate Republican support in the upper Midwest? If so, why and how can it end?

Minnesota Real Clear Politics average was Kerry 3.2; Kerry won by 3.4%. As Sam Spade noted, the Democrats in Minnesota had a better GOTV drive in this state. Conversely, the time and money Democrats spent in this generally safe state could have been poured into other states.

Iowa This state was never solid Bush. RCP average was .3%; Bush won it by .9%

Wisconsin RCP average was .9% Bush; Kerry won it by .4%. Not a huge swing by any stretch of the imagination.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

When you average out the state polls (and ignore anecdotal evidence) in the upper Midwest, the poll numbers are actually close. There might be a few outliers here and there, but nothing that would construed an overestimation of Republican support.

is this an average of ALL polls? The numbers were much more in Bush's favor than they were during the summer. Also does it include crappy polls like Zogby Interactive and the StarTrib ones that probably brought Kerry's average way up?

[MN-Troy]

I never had any doubt Kerry would win Minnesota, but right before the election many people were saying it would be the closest state in the country. It wasn't even in the top 8. Most put Wisconsin in Bush's column. He didn't get it. Iowa was considered to be solid for Bush. He got it by less than a point.

But of course the polls did show these predictions to be reasonable. So then is then do pollsters tend to overestimate Republican support in the upper Midwest? If so, why and how can it end?

Minnesota Real Clear Politics average was Kerry 3.2; Kerry won by 3.4%. As Sam Spade noted, the Democrats in Minnesota had a better GOTV drive in this state. Conversely, the time and money Democrats spent in this generally safe state could have been poured into other states.

Iowa This state was never solid Bush. RCP average was .3%; Bush won it by .9%

Wisconsin RCP average was .9% Bush; Kerry won it by .4%. Not a huge swing by any stretch of the imagination.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

When you average out the state polls (and ignore anecdotal evidence) in the upper Midwest, the poll numbers are actually close. There might be a few outliers here and there, but nothing that would construed an overestimation of Republican support.

is this an average of ALL polls? The numbers were much more in Bush's favor than they were during the summer. Also does it include crappy polls like Zogby Interactive and the StarTrib ones that probably brought Kerry's average way up?

Real Clear Politics takes the poll average over the week. For example, the poll average for Minnesota was from 10-25 thru 11-1.