Gay Marriage Referendum Coming to Minnesota

[Frodo]

If California, New York, and Maryland are of any indication, I wouldn't hold out much hope of gay marriage being legalized in Minnesota.  

I could be wrong, though.  

[Smash255]

If California, New York, and Maryland are of any indication, I wouldn't hold out much hope of gay marriage being legalized in Minnesota.  

I could be wrong, though.  

Cuomo is making a big push and he has tons of political capital (as well as two polls showing New Yorker's support same sex marriage by approx a 20% margin), so it will be interesting to see what happens.

[Holmes]

If California, New York, and Maryland are of any indication, I wouldn't hold out much hope of gay marriage being legalized in Minnesota.  

I could be wrong, though.  

Cuomo is making a big push and he has tons of political capital (as well as two polls showing New Yorker's support same sex marriage by approx a 20% margin), so it will be interesting to see what happens.

20%, eh... the legislators would be stupid not to legalize it! Using cinyc's logic, that is.

[Meeker]

Keep in mind this isn't a vote on legalizing it; it's a vote on whether to impose the already existing ban even further.

[ilikeverin]

Smith is the biggest surprise, he is from a very right wing (McCain by over 10 points, Emmer by almost 30!) district in the exurbs.

I'm guessing Smith has a close relative who is gay (either sibling or child, or grandchild if he's old).

I think so as well.  Looking around, I don't see any obvious reason for him to vote "no".  Kudos to him; he's a deputy minority leader.

EDIT: Holy crap.  John Kriesel's speech was good.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Keep in mind this isn't a vote on legalizing it; it's a vote on whether to impose the already existing ban even further.

Exactly. New York and Maryland would likely vote down such a proposal. California would in 2012.

[JonBidinger]

Until the results of the midterm elections came in and the DFL lost the legislature, people were talking about marriage equality passing the Minnesota legislature this year. Now, we know how that turned out in Maryland and Rhode Island this year, but I am hopeful that if this ban is defeated and the Republicans lose control of both chambers that marriage equality legislation will indeed be passed under Governor Dayton.

[nclib]

BRTD, how would the (current) CD's fare on the gay marriage ban?

Perhaps (from pro-gay to anti-gay):

MN-5
MN-4
MN-3
MN-1
MN-8
MN-7
MN-6
MN-2

[So the Heroes Fall]

No way MN-2 would be worse than MN-6. MN-2 has the area around Cottage Grove (where Rep. Krisel is from), Northfield, and the areas not too far south of St. Paul which aren't very socially conservative at all. MN-6 doesn't really have anything besides the liberal part of St. Cloud and perhaps Stillwater.

MN-3 also has some pretty far right areas, order will probably be more like this: 5, 4, 8, 3, 1, 2, 6, 7. 7 falls last as it has a lot of socially conservative Democrats, not many in 6 which is just very polarized.

[ilikeverin]

No way MN-2 would be worse than MN-6. MN-2 has the area around Cottage Grove (where Rep. Krisel is from), Northfield, and the areas not too far south of St. Paul which aren't very socially conservative at all. MN-6 doesn't really have anything besides the liberal part of St. Cloud and perhaps Stillwater.

MN-3 also has some pretty far right areas, order will probably be more like this: 5, 4, 8, 3, 1, 2, 6, 7. 7 falls last as it has a lot of socially conservative Democrats, not many in 6 which is just very polarized.

I'm not sure MN-08 will be ahead of MN-03.  Yes, MN-03 does have some very Republican/conservative areas, but they're sparsely populated compared to the Eden Prairie/Edina/Plymouth axis, which are going to be batting much more pro-gay than their partisan alignment would suggest (given how rich, and, more importantly, ridiculously well-educated they are).  I know you love Duluth Democrats, and I know a lot of the "miners are socially conservative!" stuff is BS, but it is the case that MN-08 is probably one of the least well-educated CDs in Minnesota, which isn't going to be great for how relatively pro-gay that district is going to be.