2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, and KY

[RogueBeaver]

Caldwell is not running in Louisiana. No Democrat is willing to be a political kamikaze, and Caldwell has been too close an ally to Jindal to make a credible run. Most likely they'll write off that race and focus on the down-ticket ones.

[California8429]

I think we can take KY, though it will be a battle. But I believe there's a good enough storm of the candidate is right.

[politicalchick20]

I know Jindal will (MUCH more than likely) be reelected, but if there's anyone who would make a respectable sacrificial lamb (even though he just he did it last year), it would be Charlie Melancon. I can't help it--anyone who is willing to take on David Vitter is good in my book (same goes with his reaction to the oil spill).

But alas, a sacrificial lamb he would remain.

[RogueBeaver]

Melancon hasn't shown an interest, and the Louisiana Democratic Party is defunct for all practical purposes. Louisiana papers have not once mentioned him or the Landrieus (who are also not interested in kamikaze missions, especially Mary in a KBH-ing) as potential candidates.

Blanco: 'Nuff said.
Campbell/Boasso: retread trolls from 2007.
Fayard: the best option. At least it would be a clear contrast (a socially liberal Clintonista, not a Blue Dog like 99% of LA Dems) and a civil discourse. Still a blowout somewhere in the 60s no matter how you spin it, perhaps higher if the Dems are reduced to white liberals and blacks, to be crude about it.
Jim Shaw: not running, he's made noises before and has his own ethical issues.

I don't expect any announcements until after SOTS or even the spring, depending on how Balkanized the field gets.

[Miles]

I know Jindal will (MUCH more than likely) be reelected, but if there's anyone who would make a respectable sacrificial lamb (even though he just he did it last year), it would be Charlie Melancon. I can't help it--anyone who is willing to take on David Vitter is good in my book (same goes with his reaction to the oil spill).

But alas, a sacrificial lamb he would remain.

Melancon wasn't a sacrificial lamb last year. He went into the race thinking he'd be competitive due to Vitter's personal problems; he didn't foresee the GOP wave either. If it were a normal state, Melancon would have defeteated Vitter. Unfortunatly, due to the GOP wave, Vitter got a free pass on his scandals, so Mealncon didn't have much to run against. I don't think he'd challenge Jindal.

[albaleman]

I know Jindal will (MUCH more than likely) be reelected, but if there's anyone who would make a respectable sacrificial lamb (even though he just he did it last year), it would be Charlie Melancon. I can't help it--anyone who is willing to take on David Vitter is good in my book (same goes with his reaction to the oil spill).

But alas, a sacrificial lamb he would remain.

Unfortunately, he's damaged goods.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Edwin Edwards has been released from prison today.

If Buddy Roemer can be president than Edwin Edwards can be governor.

[RogueBeaver]

LA fundraising report: Jindal raised $3.6 million last year for a total of $9.2 million in the bank. As the VP would say, this is a BFD due to the dirt-cheapness of media buys. Don't expect the sacrificial lamb (s) to appear before SOTS.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just like in MS and LA the GOP is safe in those states due to the population dipping in the most predominately black perishes that were affected by katrina safe GOP holds.

[Miles]

Just like in MS and LA the GOP is safe in those states due to the population dipping in the most predominately black perishes that were affected by katrina safe GOP holds.

The GOP wouldn't be safe in MS if Gene Taylor ran...

[Badger]

Just like in MS and LA the GOP is safe in those states due to the population dipping in the most predominately black perishes that were affected by katrina safe GOP holds.

The GOP wouldn't be safe in MS if Gene Taylor ran...

That's actually an intriguing idea....

[Miles]

Just like in MS and LA the GOP is safe in those states due to the population dipping in the most predominately black perishes that were affected by katrina safe GOP holds.

The GOP wouldn't be safe in MS if Gene Taylor ran...

That's actually an intriguing idea....

He's probably the only Democrat who could win there.

[feeblepizza]

I expect Blanco or Fayard to be the Dem's sacrificial lamb in LA. In KY, the GOP will probably nominate Williams, while in MS Bryant will win unless someone like Gene Taylor runs.

[Niemeyerite]

I expect Blanco or Fayard to be the Dem's sacrificial lamb in LA. In KY, the GOP will probably nominate Williams, while in MS Bryant will win unless someone like Gene Taylor runs.

even if Taylor runs, Bryant wins easily.

[Miles]

I expect Blanco or Fayard to be the Dem's sacrificial lamb in LA. In KY, the GOP will probably nominate Williams, while in MS Bryant will win unless someone like Gene Taylor runs.

even if Taylor runs, Bryant wins easily.

I don't think so.

[ScottM]

I stumbled across this and thought I'd stop in long enough to input on our gubernatorial race. This race is Phil Bryant's to lose. Should Dave Dennis pull off the upset in the primary, it will be his to lose.

I don't think there is any Democrat - any Democrat - who can win the race. And, yes, that includes Gene Taylor. The race won't be close, either.

After the 1999 elections in which Ronnie Musgrove was elected as Governor, Democrats held 7 of 8 Statewide elected offices (Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, State Treasurer, Attorney General, State Auditor, Commissioner of Agriculture, and Commissioner of Insurance). But, after the 2007 elections, the numbers were reversed. Republicans now hold all of these offices except Attorney General.

Mississippi isn't a State that throws out incumbents often, and yet Haley Barbour defeated Ronnie Musgrove by 7 points in 2003, and we just threw out two incumbent Representatives - including Gene Taylor, I might add.

Long story short, Mississippi is no longer a Democrat State in State elections. The possibility of the GOP taking control of the State House for the first time since reconstruction is very real now. This would have been unthinkable until the last couple of years.

I'll throw this in about Attorney General Jim Hood, too. Don't discount the idea that the Dickie Scruggs trial may have done some not insignificant damage to his political standing. His name popped up a lot during that ordeal.

Is a Dem win impossible? No, nothing is impossible in politics, but I'll believe it when I see it and not before.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nothing but a pipe dream that dems will win MS.

[Miles]

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Louisiana and Mississippi, maybe Kentucky too.

The Republicans are safe in Mississippi (it's only semi-competitive if Taylor runs), and they're safe in Louisiana. As far as Melancon running, as Miles said, he only ran for Senate because he thought he'd be competitive against Vitter (which I'm sure he was, until the wave). Without that, he wouldn't have ran for Senate. I don't think he challenges Jindal, so I'm marking him as safe too.

[Brandon H]

Wave or no wave, Melancon was never going to be competitive against Vitter.

Also, with La. losing a congressional seat, Melancon felt his chances of being in Congress Jan. 13 were higher running against Vitter than staying in the house. Jeff Landry who won the seat is probably on his way out.

I don't see any major Dem's running against Jindal. Maybe a few term limited state legislatures will run.

[Miles]

Wave or no wave, Melancon was never going to be competitive against Vitter.

If Vitter were up in 2008 Melancon would have been very competitive; the prostitute scandal would have been more fresh back then.

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal's first ads on the air. Half the white Dems in the legislature are in swing seats, redistricting and the fact that their tacit concession might well be backed up by not running a candidate, makes for an all-but-dead Democratic Party. Somewhere in the 60s...

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/03/gov_bobby_jindal_launches_firs.html

[BillyW]

Just like in MS and LA the GOP is safe in those states due to the population dipping in the most predominately black perishes that were affected by katrina safe GOP holds.

The GOP wouldn't be safe in MS if Gene Taylor ran...

I am betting they would be. Taylor showed remarkable skill at getting re-elected continually in a GOP district. Alas, for him, the clock finally struck midnight in 2010 and he has no glass slipper

[Bacon King]

LA is safe GOP. Mitch Landrieu is basically the only candidate that could possibly face Jindal, and he'd rather wait till 2015 and face Jay Dardenne or whoever for the open seat.

I don't see any D winning in Mississippi, barring something crazy happening.

I'd assume Beshears hangs on in Kentucky but I dunno much about the state.

[Meeker]

Any more news on a possible candidate against Jindal? Not even a high profile one but any at all?