2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, and KY

[Miles]

Beshear is in good shape; KY is unlikely to flip.

MS is leaning towards being a GOP hold. Gene Taylor is probably the only Democrat who would have a chance.

[Miles]

I know Jindal will (MUCH more than likely) be reelected, but if there's anyone who would make a respectable sacrificial lamb (even though he just he did it last year), it would be Charlie Melancon. I can't help it--anyone who is willing to take on David Vitter is good in my book (same goes with his reaction to the oil spill).

But alas, a sacrificial lamb he would remain.

Melancon wasn't a sacrificial lamb last year. He went into the race thinking he'd be competitive due to Vitter's personal problems; he didn't foresee the GOP wave either. If it were a normal state, Melancon would have defeteated Vitter. Unfortunatly, due to the GOP wave, Vitter got a free pass on his scandals, so Mealncon didn't have much to run against. I don't think he'd challenge Jindal.

[Miles]

Just like in MS and LA the GOP is safe in those states due to the population dipping in the most predominately black perishes that were affected by katrina safe GOP holds.

The GOP wouldn't be safe in MS if Gene Taylor ran...

[Miles]

Just like in MS and LA the GOP is safe in those states due to the population dipping in the most predominately black perishes that were affected by katrina safe GOP holds.

The GOP wouldn't be safe in MS if Gene Taylor ran...

That's actually an intriguing idea....

He's probably the only Democrat who could win there.

[Miles]

I expect Blanco or Fayard to be the Dem's sacrificial lamb in LA. In KY, the GOP will probably nominate Williams, while in MS Bryant will win unless someone like Gene Taylor runs.

even if Taylor runs, Bryant wins easily.

I don't think so.

[Miles]

[Miles]

Wave or no wave, Melancon was never going to be competitive against Vitter.

If Vitter were up in 2008 Melancon would have been very competitive; the prostitute scandal would have been more fresh back then.