2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, and KY

[RogueBeaver]

Beshear is likely safe, since Williams has a load of baggage. Bryant will likely keep it for the GOP. Louisiana will see anywhere from 63-71% of the vote for Jindal. Their candidate field is pathetic: Caroline Fayard is the best in a field that includes Kathleen Blanco (praying she runs), Foster Campbell, Walter Boasso (2007's resident bigoted trolls), Jim Shaw (not running) and a couple of other no-names. The LA Democratic Party is in nuclear meltdown. If Fayard runs for LG, as she seems to be indicating, then they'll put up a no-name for the formality.

[RogueBeaver]

Caldwell is not running in Louisiana. No Democrat is willing to be a political kamikaze, and Caldwell has been too close an ally to Jindal to make a credible run. Most likely they'll write off that race and focus on the down-ticket ones.

[RogueBeaver]

Melancon hasn't shown an interest, and the Louisiana Democratic Party is defunct for all practical purposes. Louisiana papers have not once mentioned him or the Landrieus (who are also not interested in kamikaze missions, especially Mary in a KBH-ing) as potential candidates.

Blanco: 'Nuff said.
Campbell/Boasso: retread trolls from 2007.
Fayard: the best option. At least it would be a clear contrast (a socially liberal Clintonista, not a Blue Dog like 99% of LA Dems) and a civil discourse. Still a blowout somewhere in the 60s no matter how you spin it, perhaps higher if the Dems are reduced to white liberals and blacks, to be crude about it.
Jim Shaw: not running, he's made noises before and has his own ethical issues.

I don't expect any announcements until after SOTS or even the spring, depending on how Balkanized the field gets.

[RogueBeaver]

LA fundraising report: Jindal raised $3.6 million last year for a total of $9.2 million in the bank. As the VP would say, this is a BFD due to the dirt-cheapness of media buys. Don't expect the sacrificial lamb (s) to appear before SOTS.

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal's first ads on the air. Half the white Dems in the legislature are in swing seats, redistricting and the fact that their tacit concession might well be backed up by not running a candidate, makes for an all-but-dead Democratic Party. Somewhere in the 60s...

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/03/gov_bobby_jindal_launches_firs.html

[RogueBeaver]

LA: odds by my estimation are around 60% and increasing that Jindal will be unopposed. The far-right lunatic Northcutt has dropped out so Jindal is the only candidate running. Blanco has $2 million in the kitty but she's not that stupid. Georges is probably not running for governor. This frees Jindal up to help out those downticket, especially washing away the obstructionists in the Legislature so he can get on with his legislative agenda.

[RogueBeaver]

Filing deadline is Sept. 1, the election Oct. 22.

[RogueBeaver]

It's a bipartisan thing, ironically a lot of the opposition is coming from Rrpublicans. Enough fresh faces with Mansion loyalties can fix that. Though I suspect that most of the Republican opposition are the recent floor-crossers. I mean, it wouldn't be unprecedented to run without opposition: Thune did last year.

[RogueBeaver]

Somewhere between 65-70%. The last incumbent election in 1999 had Foster trouncing Cold Cash Jefferson 62-35, and Louisiana was nowhere near as Republican at the state level as it is now. All that's left if there's a Democratic nominee are hardcore liberals and blacks.