Official US 2010 Census Results

[cinyc]

Could someone be so kind to put a post in here with links to the individual states (or Cincy's summaries)?

Thanks.

http://2010.census.gov/news/press-kits/redistricting.html

That's is where I get the data.  It has links to all states.  Each state has a short Census writeup and a spreadsheet showing population for the top 20 counties and municipalities and racial data.  You can download the full file from the FTP website.  You'll probably need a database program to open up some of the larger states, though.  California's full file is over 1,000,000 lines long.

I'm downloading some Michigan data now.  Hopefully, I'll have time for a detailed write-up tonight.

I haven't written up every state.  I started doing so about halfway through the process.

[Kevinstat]

Sorry, New York and Maine - you're dead last, on equal footing with D.C. and Puerto Rico.

I don't mind Maine being one of the last two states since we won't have to draw any districts until 2013 (even for municipal election districts (what most people would call "wards") in Maine's municipalities which have them redistricting isn't required until after the legislative districts are drawn), although I think Montana (which was released last week, on Tuesday I think), not New York, should have been the other state in the last two.  Their Legislative redistricting won't go into effect until 2014, although I'm not sure about local elections and it's apportionment commission is already meeting (Maine's won't be named until December 2012 at the earliest).

[Horus]

from what I'm seeing a lot of cities close to Detroit have big increases in black population

Very true. Eastpointe Michigan went from 4.5% black to 29.5% black.

[cinyc]

New Hampshire won't even need to change its lines. The districts are only 254 people from the mean:

NH-01    Guinta (R)    657,984    (254)
NH-02    Bass (R)    658,486    254

Quite the bizarre bit of luck.  I suppose New Hampshire could try to move a town or ward or two between the districts to make the population as equal as possible, if they really felt obligated.

[minionofmidas]

 You can download the full file from the FTP website.  You'll probably need a database program to open up some of the larger states, though.  California's full file is over 1,000,000 lines long.

All you lose by using calc/excel is individual blocks and block groups. You get all the census tracts and places and political districts and whatnot before calc runs out of lines.

[cinyc]

Michigan

Michigan is the only state that lost population over the past decade, shedding 0.6% of its population.  As previously noted, a large part of that population loss was due to the decimation of Detroit (-25.0%) and its county, Wayne (-11.7%).  Even Wayne County outside of Detroit lost population, albeit only 3,000 residents.  And growth in Detroit's main suburban counties was mixed - Oakland County (+0.7%) barely grew.  Macomb County (+6.7%) did better.

But that bleak headline doesn't tell the whole Michigan story.  As the map below shows, believe it or not, there even were some counties that experienced double-digit growth:



The map uses the Atlas Swing colorscale.  Red is positive, blue is negative, gray is about even (0.5% to -0.5%).  The colors deepen in 5% increments.

Clinton County, north-suburban/exurban Lansing, lead the state with 16.4% growth.  Detroit/Ann Arbor exurban Livingston County (+15.3%) was next, followed by Grand Traverse County (+12.0%) in northern Michigan, Isabella County (+11.0%) in the north-central part of the state, which is home to the Isabella Indian Reservation and the city of Mount Pleasant, and Grand Rapids-suburban Ottawa County (+10.7%). 

In Southwest Michigan, Grand Rapids' Kent County (+4.9%) and Kalamazoo County (+4.9%) both grew, while Benton Harbor and St. Joseph's Berrien County (-3.5%) shrunk.   In mid-Michigan, Flint's Gennesse County (-2.4%), Saginaw County (-4.7%) and  Bay City's Bay County (-2.2%) all shrunk, while Midland County (+0.9%) barely grew.   Many of the more rural UP counties shrunk, including Ontonagon County (-13.3%), which shrunk more than any county in Michigan, while a handful of the larger UP counties slightly grew.

But the statewide percentage change map only tells part of the story.  Michigan is one of the few states that lost both non-Hispanic whites (-3.0%) and non-Hispanic blacks (-1.3%) over the past decade.  As the map of percentage change in the county non-Hispanic white population below shows, non-Hispanic whites fled most counties, including the main Detroit suburban counties and Grand Rapids' Kent:


On the other hand, the non-Hispanic black population increased in most counties except, most notably, in Detroit's Wayne County, Flint's Genessee County, Saginaw County and three counties on the Southwest corner of the state.



This map uses a slightly different colorscale.  The colors deepen in 10-point increments, and you can see some orange where the black population more than doubled and green where it more than tripled.  As you can see, the non-Hispanic black population of Detroit-suburban Macomb County and northern Grand Traverse County, among others, exploded.  Of course, explosion is relative - some counties, especially outside of Michigan's metropolitan areas, had few blacks to begin with.  The next map shows the relative shift in the county's non-Hispanic black percentage from 2000 to 2010 - i.e. 2010 non-Hispanic black percentage minus 2000 non-Hispanic black percentage:



This uses the Atlas swing coloring.  Most counties are gray for a less than 0.5% change.  Detroit-suburban Macomb had the biggest increase in black percentage, almost 6%.  Its black population grew from just 2.7% of the county in 2000 to 8.6% in 2010.  Other counties saw smaller shifts.

Statewide, the Hispanic (+34.7) and non-Hispanic Asian (+34.9%) populations grew, but not at the impressive rate seen in elsewhere - which might explain why there aren't more counties showing relative losses.

In general, on the municipal level, 15 of the state's top 20 cities lost population over the last decade, none more than Detroit (-25.0%), Flint (-18.0%) and Pontiac (-10.3%).  Only Detroit-suburban Sterling Heights (+4.2%), Rochester Hills (+3.2%), Dearborn (+0.4%) and Troy (+0.0%) and Grand Rapids-suburban Wyoming (+4.0%) gained population.  Detroit-suburban Southfield (-8.4%) and St. Clair Shores (-5.4%) and Taylor (-4.2%) were big losers.  In the rest of the state, Ann Arbor was relatively flat (-0.1%), while Grand Rapids (-4.9%), Lansing (-4.1%) and Kalamazoo (-3.7%) lost population.

In particular, here's a map showing population losses by municipality in Southeast Michigan:



Gains were generally outside of the I-275/I-696 loop.  Yet even those areas lost whites:


While even some areas inside the loop gained black residents:

(Note that this uses the second colorscale.  The black population in silver-shaded municipalities more than quadrupled.  Gold-shaded municipalities had no black residents in 2000 - though they're mainly in other parts of the state.)

And, as a result, the black percentage increased, especially in Detroit's inner suburbs:

(Atlas Swing color scale; silver is near-zero change)

I can make other Michigan town maps upon request.

[Lunar]

Does anyone know when NY's data is to be released?

[minionofmidas]

Never:

Rhode Island, South Carolina and West Virginia shipped to legislators today and are expected to be released at 2PM tomorrow.  Sorry, New York and Maine - you're dead last, on equal footing with D.C. and Puerto Rico.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Now comes the wait for the 2010 data for South Carolina to be added to Dave's Redistricting App.  Let's hope that doesn't take as long as it did for the Census Bureau to release it in the first place.  Indeed, I'm hoping that once the last States are released, Dave will make a special push to update the laggards and have all 50 states ready by next Monday, but I expect it'll likely be two or three weeks.

[cinyc]

Rhode Island, South Carolina and West Virginia have been released:

Rhode Island
The results are pretty boring.   The state barely grew (+0.4%).  Its counties barely grew (none grew or lost more than 5,100 residents or 3%).   And its top 20 towns barely grew.

Rhode Island only has 5 counties.  Providence County, in the state's northern third, remains the state's largest, growing by 0.8% and picking up the most new residents - just over 5,000.  The county is home to the state capital of Providence and Pawtucket.  Washington County, in the state's southern third, grew fastest at 2.8%.  Mid-state Kent County (Warwick; -0.6%), ocean-faring Newport County (-3.0%) and the part of Massachusetts handed over to Rhode Island after a long dispute, Bristol County, Rhode Island (-1.5%) lost population.  Bristol is one of the few counties whose top ethnicity is Portuguese.

On the municipal level, Providence remains the largest city in the state, growing by 2.5% and picking up more residents than any other town.  Washington County's South Kingston (+9.7%) grew fastest - it's good to live by the shore, I guess.  Cumberland (+5.2%), on the Massachusetts border, Kent County's Coventry (+4.0%) and suburban Smithfield (+4.0%) also gained more than 3%.  The more urban towns of Newport (-6.8%), Woonsocket (-4.7%), Warwick (-3.7%) and East Providence (-3.4%) lost more than 3%.  The city of Central Falls (+2.4%)  is majority Hispanic.

Rhode Island's non-Hispanic White population dropped by 6.4%.  Its Hispanic population grew by 43.9%, growing from 8.7% to 12.4% of the population.  Rhode Island's non-Hispanic black population (+23.0%) and non-Hispanic Asian population (+28.1%) also grew - but non-Hispanic blacks still make up under 5% of the state's population.


South Carolina
To come in a separate post.

West Virginia
Even though West Virginia grew by 2.5%, most of its counties lost population.  Among the top 20, Kanawaha, home of the state capital, Charleston, lost 3.5% of its population and the most residents.  Marshall (Moundsville; -6.8%), Ohio (Wheeling; -6.3%) and Hancock (Weirton; -6.1%) in West Virginia's northern panhandle lost a greater percentage of their residents than Kanawha.  Beckley's Fayette County (-3.2%) lost about as much as Kanawha, while Parkersburg's Wood County (-1.2%), Princeton's Mercer County (-1.1%) and Huntington's Cabell County (-0.5%) were slightly down.

Other counties gained population.  The biggest gainers were generally in the state's eastern panhandle, which includes some counties in Washington, D.C.'s exurbs and counties including college towns.  The biggest winner was Berkeley County (Martinsburg; +37.2%), which leaped up 4 spots to become the second-largest county in the state.  It picked up over 28,000 new residents and now has a population over 100,000.   Its eastern panhandle neighbor, Jefferson County (+26.8%) was next, followed in the top 20 counties by Morgantown's Monongalia County (+17.5%), home to the University of West Virginia, and neighboring Preston County (+14.3%).   Other growing counties included Putnam County (+7.6%), along I-64 between Charleston and Huntington, Elkins' Randolph County (+4.0%), home to Davis & Elkins College, and Greenbrier County (+3.0%), a resorty area on the Virginia border in the southern part of the state.

On the municipal level, the top three cities - Charleston (-3.8%), Huntington (-4.5%) and Parkersburg (-4.9%) all lost population, as did three of the next four - Wheeling (-9.3%), Weirton (-3.3%) and Fairmont (-2.1%), in between Charleston and Morgantown.  Martinsburg (+15.1%) in the state's eastern panhandle grew fastest among the top 20, followed by Bridgeport (+11.5%), near Clarksburg (-1.0%) and the college town of Morgantown (+10.6%).  In the southern part of teh state, Bluefield lost 8.8% of its residents while Beckley (+2.1%) and Oak Hill (+1.9%), closer to the state's white water rafting mecca, showed slight growth.  Charleston-suburban Nitro (+5.2%) showed a pulse, but didn't exactly explode.

West Virginia's non-Hispanic white population grew by 1.0%.  Its Hispanic population (+81.4%) nearly doubled - but Hispanics still make up only 1.2% of the state's population.  The state's non-Hispanic Asian (+31.3%) and non-Hispanic black (+9.3%) population also grew.  At 3.4% of the population, non-Hispanic blacks are the state's largest minority group - but that's not saying much.  West Virginia is still over 93% non-Hispanic white.

[cinyc]

Does anyone know when NY's data is to be released?

2PM tomorrow, with Maine, Puerto Rico and Washington D.C.  They were shipped today.  As such, Census has shipped out every state redistricting dataset. 

There's a press conference at 2PM tomorrow to announce the new mean population center of the US, error rates and assorted other stuff.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm a little surprised that Charleston lost population. I would think if anywhere in the state (outside of the exurbanizing eastern panhandle) would be able to avoid bleeding people, it would be the state capital.

What's up with Gilmer's growth?

[cinyc]

I'm a little surprised that Charleston lost population. I would think if anywhere in the state (outside of the exurbanizing eastern panhandle) would be able to avoid bleeding people, it would be the state capital.

What's up with Gilmer's growth?

As am I.  But it's not the only state capital that lost population.  Off the top of my head, Frankfort, Kentucky, Lansing, Michigan and Pierre, South Dakota did, too.  At least their counties grew, though.

There's a state college and federal penitentiary in Gilmer County.  My guess it is Gilmer's growth something to do with one or both of those institutions.

[Brittain33]

There's a state college and federal penitentiary in Gilmer County.  My guess it is Gilmer's growth something to do with one or both of those institutions.

The prison appears to have opened since 2000.

It's a poor, rural county--as soon as I saw JL's question I was googling "gilmer county prison".

[cinyc]

South Carolina
Unlike the other slow- or no-growth states released this week, South Carolina grew at a brisk 15.3% pace.  Every one of the top 20 counties grew.  The fastest-growing counties were largely suburban or coastal.  Charleston-suburban Dorchester County (Summerville; +41.6%) lead the growth parade, followed by Charlotte, North Carolina-suburban York County (Rock Hill;+ 37.3%), Myrtle Beach's Horry County (+37.0%) and coastal Beaufort County (+34.1%), home of ritzy Hilton Head Island and Beaufort's U.S. Marine bases, including Parris Island.  Horry County picked up the most new residents - over 72,000, about 1,000 more residents than the largest county in the state, Greenville (+18.9%), in upstate South Carolina.    Other major counties that grew faster than the state include Charlotte-exurban Lancaster (+24.9%), Charleston-suburban Berkeley (+24.7%), Columbia-suburban Lexington (+21.5%) and Columbia's county, Richland (+19.9%).   Charleston County grew by 13.0%.  In upstate, Anderson County (+12.9%) and Spartanburg County (+12.0%) slightly lagged the state.    Some I-95 counties containing smaller towns barely grew, among them Orangeburg County (+1.0%), Sumter County (+2.7%) and Darlington County (+1.9%), near Florence.  And 12 more rural counties lost population.

On the municipal level, the state capital of Columbia (+11.2%) held off Charleston (+24.2%) to remain the state's largest city.  Charleston picked up the most new residents of any city in the state, over 23,000, bringing its population above 100,000.  It is now within 9,200 residents of becoming South Carolina's largest city.  And Charleston's suburbs were among the state's fastest growing major municipalities, including Summerville (+56.4%), Mount Pleasant (+42.5%), Goose Creek (+23.0%) and North Charleston (+22.4%).  Upstate suburbs were also well-represented, with Greer (+51.5%), near the Greenville-Spartanburg Airport, and Mauldin (+50.3%) posting impressive growth rates.  Charlotte-area Rock Hill (+32.9%),  the city of Florence (+22.5%), Myrtle Beach (+19.1%) and Augusta, Georgia-area Aiken (+16.5%) also grew faster than the state.   Upstate Spartanburg (-6.7%) was the only population loser among South Carolina's top 20 municipalities.  Its upstate neighbor, Greenville, only grew by 4.3%.

South Carolina's non-Hispanic white population grew at a respectable 11.7%, three points faster than its non-Hispanic black population (+8.6%).  As a result, South Carolina's non-Hispanic African-American population decreased from 29.4% to 27.7% of the state's population.  But because South Carolina's Hispanic population (+147.9%) more than doubled and non-Hispanic Asian population (+63.9%) rapidly grew, South Carolina's non-Hispanic white percentage also dropped 2 points from 66.1% to 64.1% of the population.  Hispanics make up 5.1% and non-Hispanic Asians 1.3% of South Carolina's residents.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Carolina
Every one of the top 20 counties grew.

Make that every one of the current top 20 counties.  The #17 county for 2000, Laurens County, lost population, which is precisely why it no longer is in the top 20 at all.

[Dgov]

I wonder if this means that a 2nd Black-majority district isn't required.  It was hard enough trying to draw two beforehand.

[cinyc]

South Carolina
Every one of the top 20 counties grew.

Make that every one of the current top 20 counties.  The #17 county for 2000, Laurens County, lost population, which is precisely why it no longer is in the top 20 at all.

True.  As always, I write these things based on the Census' 2010 top 20 lists unless I see something else on the maps or take the time to download additional data.

Along those lines, McDowell County West Virginia lost 19.1% of its population, the most in that state.  It's the southernmost county in the state.  Outside of the Greenbrier/White Sulfur Springs resorty area, southern West Virginia didn't fare so well.

I wonder if this means that a 2nd Black-majority district isn't required.  It was hard enough trying to draw two beforehand.

FWIW - Non-Hispanic black VAP is even lower - 26.3%.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I wonder if this means that a 2nd Black-majority district isn't required.  It was hard enough trying to draw two beforehand.

The expectation has been that they'll be able to get away with just one, but we'll see.  It will end up being a hellacious looking gerrymander if they can, and if they can, it likely will be one that can't be drawn exactly using Dave's Apportionment Program.  South Carolina has used split precincts before, and if need be it probably will again.  Back in the early 90's I lived in a split precinct in Columbia that was right at the tip of the curlique in the border between the 2nd and 6th districts.  Going in a straight line in any direction from where I lived then, you crossed the boundary between the 2nd and 6th districts at least three times.

[jimrtex]

South Carolina
Unlike the other slow- or no-growth states released this week, South Carolina grew at a brisk 15.3% pace.  Every one of the top 20 counties grew.  The fastest-growing counties were largely suburban or coastal.  Charleston-suburban Dorchester County (Summerville; +41.6%) lead the growth parade, followed by Charlotte, North Carolina-suburban York County (Rock Hill;+ 37.3%), Myrtle Beach's Horry County (+37.0%) and coastal Beaufort County (+34.1%), home of ritzy Hilton Head Island and Beaufort's U.S. Marine bases, including Parris Island.  Horry County picked up the most new residents - over 72,000, about 1,000 more residents than the largest county in the state, Greenville (+18.9%), in upstate South Carolina.    Other major counties that grew faster than the state include Charlotte-exurban Lancaster (+24.9%), Charleston-suburban Berkeley (+24.7%), Columbia-suburban Lexington (+21.5%) and Columbia's county, Richland (+19.9%).   Charleston County grew by 13.0%.  In upstate, Anderson County (+12.9%) and Spartanburg County (+12.0%) slightly lagged the state.    Some I-95 counties containing smaller towns barely grew, among them Orangeburg County (+1.0%), Sumter County (+2.7%) and Darlington County (+1.9%), near Florence.  And 12 more rural counties lost population.

On the municipal level, the state capital of Columbia (+11.2%) held off Charleston (+24.2%) to remain the state's largest city.  Charleston picked up the most new residents of any city in the state, over 23,000, bringing its population above 100,000.  It is now within 9,200 residents of becoming South Carolina's largest city.  And Charleston's suburbs were among the state's fastest growing major municipalities, including Summerville (+56.4%), Mount Pleasant (+42.5%), Goose Creek (+23.0%) and North Charleston (+22.4%).  Upstate suburbs were also well-represented, with Greer (+51.5%), near the Greenville-Spartanburg Airport, and Mauldin (+50.3%) posting impressive growth rates.  Charlotte-area Rock Hill (+32.9%),  the city of Florence (+22.5%), Myrtle Beach (+19.1%) and Augusta, Georgia-area Aiken (+16.5%) also grew faster than the state.   Upstate Spartanburg (-6.7%) was the only population loser among South Carolina's top 20 municipalities.  Its upstate neighbor, Greenville, only grew by 4.3%.

South Carolina's non-Hispanic white population grew at a respectable 11.7%, three points faster than its non-Hispanic black population (+8.6%).  As a result, South Carolina's non-Hispanic African-American population decreased from 29.4% to 27.7% of the state's population.  But because South Carolina's Hispanic population (+147.9%) more than doubled and non-Hispanic Asian population (+63.9%) rapidly grew, South Carolina's non-Hispanic white percentage also dropped 2 points from 66.1% to 64.1% of the population.  Hispanics make up 5.1% and non-Hispanic Asians 1.3% of South Carolina's residents.

I would have guessed that Greenville or Spartanburg would have made the top 5 cities.  This was somewhat similar to Orlando, which is actually a pretty small city.

[cinyc]

Greenville was South Carolina's 4th largest city in 2000.  It was passed by Mount Pleasant and Rock Hill over the past decade, and is now 6th largest.  Spartanburg fell from 7th largest to 11th.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I would have guessed that Greenville or Spartanburg would have made the top 5 cities.  This was somewhat similar to Orlando, which is actually a pretty small city.

It can be quite difficult for a municipality in South Carolina to expand its borders on anything like a logical basis.

[cinyc]

The Boston Globe has some nice Massachusetts maps, for those who want to delve deeper into that state's data:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/graphics/03_22_11_2010_census_town_population/

[Bacon King]

The Boston Globe has some nice Massachusetts maps, for those who want to delve deeper into that state's data:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/graphics/03_22_11_2010_census_town_population/

LOL @ the two towns with -100% change in black population: presumably, the only black family in town moved out.

[minionofmidas]

Quick list of US cities over 600k

New York tbd
LA 3.793mio
Chicago 2.696mio
Houston 2.099mio
Philadelphia 1.526mio
Phoenix 1.446mio
San Antonio 1.327mio
SD 1.307mio
Dallas 1.198mio
San Jose 946k
Indy 830k
Jacksonville 822k
San Francisco 805k
Austin 790k
Columbus 787k
Fort Worth 741k
Louisville 741k
Charlotte 731k
Detroit 714k
El Paso 649k
Memphis 647k
Nashville 627k
Baltimore 621k
Boston 618k
Seattle 609k
DC 602k
Denver 600k

(we don't have DC's block data or racial breakdown yet, but we have the baseline figure)
How far Detroit has fallen... Mind you, Baltimore and Boston (and New Orleans, far from the list) peaked at even higher places than Detroit, which never made it past fourth, much longer ago though.