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Author Topic: Official US 2010 Census Results  (Read 69134 times)
Antonio V
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« Reply #100 on: December 21, 2010, 12:48:08 pm »
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This is the new map

With a tied Popular vote, Obama leads McCain 272/266.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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« Reply #101 on: December 21, 2010, 12:48:51 pm »
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Here's the total apportionment run:


Seat #51: California 2
Seat #52: Texas 2
Seat #53: California 3
Seat #54: New York 2
Seat #55: Florida 2
Seat #56: California 4
Seat #57: Texas 3
Seat #58: Illinois 2
Seat #59: Pennsylvania 2
Seat #60: California 5
Seat #61: Ohio 2
Seat #62: New York 3
Seat #63: Florida 3
Seat #64: Texas 4
Seat #65: Michigan 2
Seat #66: Georgia 2
Seat #67: California 6
Seat #68: North Carolina 2
Seat #69: New Jersey 2
Seat #70: California 7
Seat #71: Virginia 2
Seat #72: Texas 5
Seat #73: New York 4
Seat #74: Florida 4
Seat #75: Illinois 3
Seat #76: Pennsylvania 3
Seat #77: California 8
Seat #78: Washington 2
Seat #79: Ohio 3
Seat #80: Massachusetts 2
Seat #81: Texas 6
Seat #82: Indiana 2
Seat #83: Arizona 2
Seat #84: Tennessee 2
Seat #85: California 9
Seat #86: New York 5
Seat #87: Missouri 2
Seat #88: Florida 5
Seat #89: Maryland 2
Seat #90: Michigan 3
Seat #91: Wisconsin 2
Seat #92: Georgia 3
Seat #93: California 10
Seat #94: North Carolina 3
Seat #95: Texas 7
Seat #96: Minnesota 2
Seat #97: Illinois 4
Seat #98: Pennsylvania 4
Seat #99: New Jersey 3
Seat #100: Colorado 2
Seat #101: California 11
Seat #102: New York 6
Seat #103: Florida 6
Seat #104: Alabama 2
Seat #105: Texas 8
Seat #106: Ohio 4
Seat #107: South Carolina 2
Seat #108: Virginia 3
Seat #109: California 12
Seat #110: Louisiana 2
Seat #111: Kentucky 2
Seat #112: New York 7
Seat #113: California 13
Seat #114: Texas 9
Seat #115: Florida 7
Seat #116: Illinois 5
Seat #117: Michigan 4
Seat #118: Pennsylvania 5
Seat #119: Georgia 4
Seat #120: California 14
Seat #121: North Carolina 4
Seat #122: Washington 3
Seat #123: Oregon 2
Seat #124: Massachusetts 3
Seat #125: Oklahoma 2
Seat #126: Texas 10
Seat #127: Indiana 3
Seat #128: Arizona 3
Seat #129: Tennessee 3
Seat #130: New York 8
Seat #131: Ohio 5
Seat #132: California 15
Seat #133: New Jersey 4
Seat #134: Connecticut 2
Seat #135: Florida 8
Seat #136: Missouri 3
Seat #137: California 16
Seat #138: Texas 11
Seat #139: Maryland 3
Seat #140: Illinois 6
Seat #141: Wisconsin 3
Seat #142: Pennsylvania 6
Seat #143: Virginia 4
Seat #144: New York 9
Seat #145: California 17
Seat #146: Florida 9
Seat #147: Michigan 5
Seat #148: Texas 12
Seat #149: Georgia 5
Seat #150: Minnesota 3
Seat #151: Iowa 2
Seat #152: North Carolina 5
Seat #153: California 18
Seat #154: Ohio 6
Seat #155: Mississippi 2
Seat #156: Arkansas 2
Seat #157: Colorado 3
Seat #158: New York 10
Seat #159: Kansas 2
Seat #160: California 19
Seat #161: Texas 13
Seat #162: Florida 10
Seat #163: Illinois 7
Seat #164: New Jersey 5
Seat #165: Pennsylvania 7
Seat #166: Utah 2
Seat #167: Alabama 3
Seat #168: Washington 4
Seat #169: California 20
Seat #170: Nevada 2
Seat #171: Massachusetts 4
Seat #172: South Carolina 3
Seat #173: Indiana 4
Seat #174: Texas 14
Seat #175: Louisiana 3
Seat #176: New York 11
Seat #177: Arizona 4
Seat #178: Tennessee 4
Seat #179: California 21
Seat #180: Michigan 6
Seat #181: Florida 11
Seat #182: Virginia 5
Seat #183: Ohio 7
Seat #184: Kentucky 3
Seat #185: Georgia 6
Seat #186: North Carolina 6
Seat #187: Texas 15
Seat #188: California 22
Seat #189: Missouri 4
Seat #190: Illinois 8
Seat #191: Pennsylvania 8
Seat #192: New York 12
Seat #193: Maryland 4
Seat #194: California 23
Seat #195: Wisconsin 4
Seat #196: Florida 12
Seat #197: Texas 16
Seat #198: New Jersey 6
Seat #199: California 24
Seat #200: Oregon 3
Seat #201: New York 13
Seat #202: Ohio 8
Seat #203: Oklahoma 3
Seat #204: Minnesota 4
Seat #205: Michigan 7
Seat #206: Texas 17
Seat #207: California 25
Seat #208: Illinois 9
Seat #209: Florida 13
Seat #210: Washington 5
Seat #211: Pennsylvania 9
Seat #212: Georgia 7
Seat #213: North Carolina 7
Seat #214: Massachusetts 5
Seat #215: California 26
Seat #216: Virginia 6
Seat #217: Connecticut 3
Seat #218: New Mexico 2
Seat #219: Colorado 4
Seat #220: Indiana 5
Seat #221: Texas 18
Seat #222: New York 14
Seat #223: Arizona 5
Seat #224: Tennessee 5
Seat #225: California 27
Seat #226: Florida 14
Seat #227: Alabama 4
Seat #228: Texas 19
Seat #229: Ohio 9
Seat #230: New Jersey 7
Seat #231: California 28
Seat #232: Illinois 10
Seat #233: Missouri 5
Seat #234: Pennsylvania 10
Seat #235: New York 15
Seat #236: South Carolina 4
Seat #237: Michigan 8
Seat #238: West Virginia 2
Seat #239: Louisiana 4
Seat #240: California 29
Seat #241: Florida 15
Seat #242: Georgia 8
Seat #243: Nebraska 2
Seat #244: Maryland 5
Seat #245: Texas 20
Seat #246: North Carolina 8
Seat #247: Wisconsin 5
Seat #248: California 30
Seat #249: Kentucky 4
Seat #250: New York 16
Seat #251: Iowa 3
Seat #252: Virginia 7
Seat #253: Washington 6
Seat #254: Texas 21
Seat #255: Illinois 11
Seat #256: California 31
Seat #257: Ohio 10
Seat #258: Florida 16
Seat #259: Mississippi 3
Seat #260: Pennsylvania 11
Seat #261: Massachusetts 6
Seat #262: Arkansas 3
Seat #263: Minnesota 5
Seat #264: Indiana 6
Seat #265: California 32
Seat #266: New York 17
Seat #267: New Jersey 8
Seat #268: Texas 22
Seat #269: Arizona 6
Seat #270: Michigan 9
Seat #271: Kansas 3
Seat #272: Tennessee 6
Seat #273: California 33
Seat #274: Georgia 9
Seat #275: Florida 17
Seat #276: Utah 3
Seat #277: Colorado 5
Seat #278: North Carolina 9
Seat #279: Texas 23
Seat #280: Illinois 12
Seat #281: California 34
Seat #282: Idaho 2
Seat #283: New York 18
Seat #284: Oregon 4
Seat #285: Pennsylvania 12
Seat #286: Nevada 3
Seat #287: Ohio 11
Seat #288: Missouri 6
Seat #289: Oklahoma 4
Seat #290: California 35
Seat #291: Florida 18
Seat #292: Texas 24
Seat #293: Virginia 8
Seat #294: Alabama 5
Seat #295: Maryland 6
Seat #296: California 36
Seat #297: New York 19
Seat #298: Michigan 10
Seat #299: Wisconsin 6
Seat #300: Washington 7
Seat #301: New Jersey 9
Seat #302: South Carolina 5
Seat #303: Connecticut 4
Seat #304: Illinois 13
Seat #305: Texas 25
Seat #306: Georgia 10
Seat #307: California 37
Seat #308: Pennsylvania 13
Seat #309: Florida 19
Seat #310: Louisiana 5
Seat #311: Massachusetts 7
Seat #312: North Carolina 10
Seat #313: Ohio 12
Seat #314: Indiana 7
Seat #315: New York 20
Seat #316: California 38
Seat #317: Arizona 7
Seat #318: Texas 26
Seat #319: Tennessee 7
Seat #320: Kentucky 5
Seat #321: Minnesota 6
Seat #322: California 39
Seat #323: Florida 20
Seat #324: Hawaii 2
Seat #325: Illinois 14
Seat #326: Texas 27
Seat #327: New York 21
Seat #328: California 40
Seat #329: Virginia 9
Seat #330: Michigan 11
Seat #331: Pennsylvania 14
Seat #332: Maine 2
Seat #333: New Hampshire 2
Seat #334: New Jersey 10
Seat #335: Missouri 7
Seat #336: Georgia 11
Seat #337: Ohio 13
Seat #338: California 41
Seat #339: Colorado 6
Seat #340: Florida 21
Seat #341: Texas 28
Seat #342: North Carolina 11
Seat #343: New York 22
Seat #344: Washington 8
Seat #345: California 42
Seat #346: Maryland 7
Seat #347: Illinois 15
Seat #348: Texas 29
Seat #349: Iowa 4 (-1)
Seat #350: Wisconsin 7
Seat #351: California 43
Seat #352: Pennsylvania 15
Seat #353: Massachusetts 8
Seat #354: Florida 22
Seat #355: Alabama 6
Seat #356: Indiana 8
Seat #357: New York 23
Seat #358: Michigan 12
Seat #359: Oregon 5
Seat #360: Mississippi 4
Seat #361: California 44
Seat #362: Ohio 14
Seat #363: Arizona 8
Seat #364: Texas 30
Seat #365: Tennessee 8
Seat #366: South Carolina 6
Seat #367: Virginia 10
Seat #368: Georgia 12
Seat #369: Arkansas 4
Seat #370: New Mexico 3
Seat #371: Oklahoma 5
Seat #372: New Jersey 11
Seat #373: California 45
Seat #374: Florida 23
Seat #375: North Carolina 12
Seat #376: Illinois 16
Seat #377: Louisiana 6 (-1)
Seat #378: New York 24
Seat #379: Texas 31
Seat #380: Kansas 4
Seat #381: Pennsylvania 16
Seat #382: California 46
Seat #383: Minnesota 7
Seat #384: California 47
Seat #385: Missouri 8 (-1)
Seat #386: Florida 24
Seat #387: Connecticut 5
Seat #388: Texas 32
Seat #389: Utah 4 (+1)
Seat #390: Ohio 15
Seat #391: Washington 9
Seat #392: Kentucky 6
Seat #393: Michigan 13
Seat #394: New York 25
Seat #395: California 48
Seat #396: Nevada 4 (+1)
Seat #397: Illinois 17
Seat #398: Colorado 7
Seat #399: Georgia 13
Seat #400: Texas 33 (+1)
Seat #401: Massachusetts 9 (-1)
Seat #402: Maryland 8
Seat #403: Pennsylvania 17
Seat #404: California 49
Seat #405: Florida 25
Seat #406: New Jersey 12 (-1)
Seat #407: Indiana 9
Seat #408: North Carolina 13
Seat #409: Virginia 11
Seat #410: New York 26
Seat #411: Wisconsin 8
Seat #412: West Virginia 3
Seat #413: Arizona 9 (+1)
Seat #414: California 50
Seat #415: Texas 34 (+2)
Seat #416: Tennessee 9
Seat #417: Nebraska 3
Seat #418: Ohio 16 (-2)
Seat #419: Rhode Island 2
Seat #420: California 51
Seat #421: Alabama 7
Seat #422: Florida 26 (+1)
Seat #423: Illinois 18 (-1)
Seat #424: Michigan 14 (-1)
Seat #425: New York 27 (-2)
Seat #426: Texas 35 (+3)
Seat #427: Pennsylvania 18 (-1)
Seat #428: California 52
Seat #429: Georgia 14 (+1)
Seat #430: South Carolina 7 (+1)
Seat #431: California 53
Seat #432: Florida 27 (+2)
Seat #433: Washington 10 (+1)
Seat #434: Minnesota 8
Seat #435: Texas 36 (+4)

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Antonio V
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« Reply #102 on: December 21, 2010, 12:54:07 pm »
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Oo

I made this list for the 2000 census and it took me a couple of weeks !
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #103 on: December 21, 2010, 12:54:55 pm »
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So who is the biggest loser of today's numbers?  I nominate Russ Carnahan. 
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Beef
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« Reply #104 on: December 21, 2010, 12:55:55 pm »
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Oo

I made this list for the 2000 census and it took me a couple of weeks !

I code for a living Smiley.

Never used the POI spreadsheet library in Java before.  That took the most time.  But now I know something new Cheesy.
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« Reply #105 on: December 21, 2010, 01:03:45 pm »
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So RI is not in danger (yet) and MT will likely lose out fairly narrowly for the third time in a row?

Losers in 2020:

AL, IL, MI, MN, NY, OH, PA,

Possible:

NE, NJ, PA(2), RI, WV, WI

The small losers would be ranked WV, RI, NE in terms of likelihood of losing seats.

Gainers in 2020:

AZ, CO, FL, GA, NC, OR, TX(3)

Possible:

ID, UT, VA

It could end up based on whether ID surpasses NE in population (this is a necessary condition for ID to gain a seat, and NE to lose a seat, but it is not a sufficient condition).
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« Reply #106 on: December 21, 2010, 01:26:33 pm »
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State closest to gaining a another seat

1. Montana (needed 12,409 more people)
2. North Carolina (21,301 short)
3. Missouri (22,012 short)
4. Oregon (48,971 short)
5. New Jersey (about 56,000)
6. Louisiana (about 58,000)
7. New York (almost 100,000 short)

I believe all other states would need population pickups of more than 100,000.
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« Reply #107 on: December 21, 2010, 01:29:40 pm »
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So who is the biggest loser of today's numbers?  I nominate Russ Carnahan. 

Some NYC area Dem rep is also royally f-ed today.  Which one do you think it will be?  Most likely Ackerman, Maloney or Crowley, based on previous talk.
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« Reply #108 on: December 21, 2010, 01:32:02 pm »
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So who is the biggest loser of today's numbers?  I nominate Russ Carnahan. 

Some NYC area Dem rep is also royally f-ed today.  Which one do you think it will be?  Most likely Ackerman, Maloney or Crowley, based on previous talk.

Yes; my vote's on Ackerman.
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« Reply #109 on: December 21, 2010, 01:48:30 pm »
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Long time no see Beef Smiley
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« Reply #110 on: December 21, 2010, 01:50:27 pm »
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The closest margin any state had in earning a seat was Minnesota.  By my calculation, they were 14,977 people above the threshold needed to keep their 8th seat.  Otherwise they would have lost that seat to North Carolina.

There's nothing in these results that will be challenged, I think.  Pretty clear cut.  It's not like in 2000 when we had a razor-thin margin between UT and NC for the last seat.
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« Reply #111 on: December 21, 2010, 01:55:01 pm »
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So Michigan lost population and Rhode Island almost did (+0.4%).  DC gained population for the first time since the 1950 census.  And Texas gained as many residents in the last decade as live in a state like Louisiana or Kentucky.

So who is the biggest loser of today's numbers?  I nominate Russ Carn.ahan.  

Some NYC area Dem rep is also royally f-ed today.  Which one do you think it will be?  Most likely Ackerman, Maloney or Crowley, based on previous talk.

From a map drawing aesthetics perspective, it should be Engel in NY-17.  His district is the ugliest (other than Velasquez' NY-12, which won't be axed due to racial reasons).  There's no reason at all why the Bronx should share a district with Rockland County.

Obviously, the other dead district is going to have to come from Upstate.  NY-23 is probably most vulnerable to being carved up due to likely population loss and the sheer size of it.
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« Reply #112 on: December 21, 2010, 01:55:27 pm »
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Long time no see Beef Smiley

Yo, yo, still keepin' it real in tha hoosier state.
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« Reply #113 on: December 21, 2010, 09:53:18 pm »
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It looks like a net six vote loss to Obama in the Electoral College over 2008.
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« Reply #114 on: December 21, 2010, 11:01:06 pm »
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It looks like a net six vote loss to Obama in the Electoral College over 2008.

Yes. Also true with a tied popular vote.
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« Reply #115 on: December 21, 2010, 11:58:15 pm »

LAST TEN SEATS:
Seat #426: Texas 35 (+3)              Priority: 728,933
Seat #427: Pennsylvania 18 (-1)   Priority: 726,147
Seat #428: California 52 (-1)         Priority: 723,412
Seat #429: Georgia 14 (+1)           Priority: 718,097
Seat #430: South Carolina 7 (+1)  Priority: 713,709
Seat #431: California 53 (nc)         Priority: 709,631
Seat #432: Florida 27 (+2)            Priority: 709,610
Seat #433: Washington 10 (+1)   Priority: 708,829
Seat #434: Minnesota 8 (nc)         Priority: 708,767
Seat #435: Texas 36 (+4)             Priority: 708,396

NEXT TEN SEATS
Seat #436: North Carolina 14 (+1)  Priority: 706,817
Seat #437: Missouri 9 (nc)               Priority: 705,802
Seat #438: New York 28 (-1)           Priority: 704,775
Seat #439: New Jersey 13 (nc)       Priority: 703,915
Seat #440: Montana 2 (+1)             Priority: 699,622
Seat #441: Louisiana 7 (nc)            Priority: 699,514
Seat #442: Ohio 17 (-1)                  Priority: 699,503
Seat #443: Oregon 6 (+1)              Priority: 699,455
Seat #444: Virginia 12 (+1)            Priority: 696,400
Seat #445: California 54 (+1)         Priority: 696,366


I had a slightly difference sequence from you. Did you use resident or apportionment population? Apportionment population is larger and includes overseas military and government personnel.

#431 FL 27 (713.4 K)
#432 WA 10 (711.9 K)
#433 TX 36 (711.9 K)
#434 CA 53 (711.3 K)
#435 MN 8 (710.2)

#436 NC 14 (709.1 K)
#437 MO 9 (708.5 K)
#438 NY 28 (706.3 K)
#439 NJ 13 (705.2 K)
#440 MT 2 (703.2 K)
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« Reply #116 on: December 22, 2010, 02:31:06 am »
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Just saw the results, but don't have a lot of time for analysis because Im off to work:



The green states had larger numerical gains this decade than in the 90s.

Obama loses a net 6 EV in 2012.

Im really surprised that the overall figure is not higher, maybe the 2000 Census was a slight overcount.

It also looks like states who had high (or higher compared with 2000) mail-in participation have better growth than other states (see North Carolina or Texas).

More later.
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« Reply #117 on: December 22, 2010, 05:38:46 am »
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Seat #440: Montana 2 (+1)             Priority: 699,622
This just makes me sick.
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« Reply #118 on: December 22, 2010, 05:47:47 am »
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Bizarre fun fact:
In 2000, Gore states lost eight seats, gained one; Bush states lost four seats, gained nine; contested Florida gained two seats.
(CT, 2 NY, 2 PA, IL, MI, WI; CA vs OH, IN, MS, OK; NC, 2 GA, 2 TX, CO, 2 AZ, NV)
In 2010, Gore states lost eight seats, gained one; Bush states lost four seats, gained nine; contested Florida gained two seats.
(MA, 2 NY, NJ, PA, IL, MI, IA; WA vs 2 OH, MO, LA; SC, GA, 4 TX, AZ, UT, NV)
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« Reply #119 on: December 22, 2010, 06:30:08 am »
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Bizarre fun fact:
In 2000, Gore states lost eight seats, gained one; Bush states lost four seats, gained nine; contested Florida gained two seats.
(CT, 2 NY, 2 PA, IL, MI, WI; CA vs OH, IN, MS, OK; NC, 2 GA, 2 TX, CO, 2 AZ, NV)
In 2010, Gore states lost eight seats, gained one; Bush states lost four seats, gained nine; contested Florida gained two seats.
(MA, 2 NY, NJ, PA, IL, MI, IA; WA vs 2 OH, MO, LA; SC, GA, 4 TX, AZ, UT, NV)

LOL indeed. Grin
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #120 on: December 22, 2010, 06:43:06 am »
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For the first time since just about ever, the west was not the fastest-growing region in the US, being overtaken by the south.
Also for the first time since just about ever (if not literally for the first time ever?), the smallest state in the union, which is still Wyoming, won't be the smallest congressional district, as it now has more than half the population of the smallest multi-member state (Rhode Island). It's three EV's are still the cheapest though, of course.
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« Reply #121 on: December 22, 2010, 08:04:05 pm »
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What would the 2020 gains and loses look like if the 00-10 growth numbers are the same for 10-20?
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« Reply #122 on: December 22, 2010, 08:50:48 pm »
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Just saw the results, but don't have a lot of time for analysis because Im off to work:



The green states had larger numerical gains this decade than in the 90s.

Obama loses a net 6 EV in 2012.

Im really surprised that the overall figure is not higher, maybe the 2000 Census was a slight overcount.

It also looks like states who had high (or higher compared with 2000) mail-in participation have better growth than other states (see North Carolina or Texas).

More later.

Somewhat of a regional pattern to the states with higher growth in the 2000s than in the 1990s, in fact 5 consecutive states from SC, NC, VA, WV, and PA. Not sure if this is coinidence or not.

Can anyone make a % gain map?
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« Reply #123 on: December 22, 2010, 09:41:23 pm »
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Strong showing by the income tax free states. 
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« Reply #124 on: December 23, 2010, 03:37:35 am »
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Strong showing by the income tax free states. 

Difficult to declare whether it is a symptom or a cause though.
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this is real
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