Official US 2010 Census Results

[Torie]

Strong showing by the income tax free states.  

Difficult to declare whether it is a symptom or a cause though.

The slowest growing income tax free states were the fastest growing states in their respective regions.   Slow growth states should consider dumping the income tax to attract growth and investment.

Massachusetts's economy is among the strongest in the country. We just don't have the land, or the willingness to build with density on that land, to accommodate population growth.

Yes, in that sense Mass was "smart." It has effectively forced out of the state the bulk of its working class, and become a rather upscale state in its Social Economic Status (SES).

Moreover, the state had, and may still have for all I know, high quality secondary educational institutions (particularly the Catholic schools), not to mention its host of splendid higher educational ones, so it was able to effect a substantial amount of upward mobility of its population, putting on steroids as it were the desire (attended by hard work and discipline, without which desire is a fantasy novel) of so many of those "ethnics" up there "better" themselves, and certainly their kids, in any event. Congrats to all.

[Torie]

We might get some more info on the exact timeline, though. That would be very welcome.

I tuned in to late for the press conference.  It says it is being archived.  Anyone catch it?

I didn't catch it, but there doesn't seem to be much of interest in the press kit for the press conference.  There's some internal migration data for Texas, California and Michigan - but that may or may not have been previously released.

Yes, in a few places, internal migration could move the numbers by a discernible amount, and I try to factor that in, in my maps, when I am cutting it close to what I think is the point, where the odds of the seat being at risk in a semi wave, start to go up exponentially. I don't draw for a wave quite as strong as 2008. I don't think the odds are high that it will be replicated soon. And even then, the maps I draw should enable competent incumbents to survive. My sense of it is, is that a competent incumbent who is not a partisan attack dog, or becomes demonized by the opposition, can generate about 3 PVI points in his or her favor, over what would otherwise happen; with a superstar, like Gerlach in PA, or Ryan in WI, that is worth perhaps about 5 PVI points, in all cases assuming competent and reasonably funded opposition.

[Torie]

Oh sorry, cinyc, I did indeed misunderstand. When I am drawing my maps, I am obsessed with intra county migrations, which can matter a lot in bigger, and politically variegated counties. I don't want my maps to hit the dumpster because I didn't try to anticipate for that.

[Torie]

...though Allegheny did so by 0.2%

Hispanic share almost doubled - Hispanic population more than doubled. Black share also rose. State is now down to 55% Anglo.

The Prince George's County exurban outmigration continues.  The African-American population in neighboring Charles County nearly doubled, while the white population dropped by almost 10,000.  African-Americans make up about 41% of the county's population.   Whites are now barely a majority there, with 50.3%.   Whites continue to leave Prince George's County, too.

I wonder if this reflects the "syndrome" that whites don't want to live with blacks when their percentage in the hood gets "too high," or whether it is more due to differential hood housing demand, with blacks paying a premium to live in high percentage black neighborhoods that are safe and middle class, with decent schools. Does anyone know? Is this more about "racism" or economics is my question. And I have no idea, at least in this neck of the woods (in the deep South I just might assume racism frankly), what the answer is.

[Torie]

Sucks to be Iowa, really. Looks like the only places that grew were the Des Moines, Iowa City, and Cedar Rapids areas.

Yes, the Quad cities, with about 450,000 people or something, to me seems like the biggest small town in America. It has the population, but not the amenities one would expect from that large a population. I am not surprised that little or no new blood wants to migrate to such a dreary place.

[Torie]

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With a rather substantial shift from inner Indianapolis (the old city, rather than the new city, which is all of Marion County), to the now defunct suburbs of Indianapolis in now outer Indianapolis. In other words, just about all the growth was in the outer portion of Marion County.

[Torie]

Two or three precincts in downtown LA must have gone through the roof, as office buildings were converted into housing, or new housing towers built, in a rather massive way. I suspect we are talking about say 15,000 new residents here, at the cost of next to zero being displaced. And I bet about 70%-80% of them are Asian.

[Torie]

So Chicago lost 17% of its black population? Wow. But statewide the decline was only 1%? Hmm, what suburbs did they move to? Looks like ~60,000 moved to suburban Cook, with Will County being the runner-up at a net gain of ~23k...

Wow, indeed. Just wow. What that suggests to me is that there has been considerable upward mobility in the black population in the last 10 years in Chicagoland. Am I wrong?  Or are inner city neighborhoods being gentrified, and the blacks pushed to undesirable suburbs, or back to the South? Or both?  As to the back to the South thing, there is this tendency for when Hispanics move in, the lower SES blacks move out. More should be written about that. But what happens when Hispanics are everywhere doing the grunt work?

By the way, how many Mexican restaurants did Chicago have when I arrived there in 1969 as a Freshman?  Yes you guessed it - one, way up on the northside just south of the Evanston border. Now Chicago has how many Mexicans? 700,000 or something?

[Torie]

With such poor data, I just don't think SCOTUS will sign off on CVAP (I kind of doubt they would even with good data actually). Every map would be litigated to death, over a factual issue, with whore experts on each side. It would be a nightmare. In fact, I would be kind of surprised if a SCOTUS vote tanking CVAP did not secure in excess of five votes.

But, to the extent one can avoid the legal risk, without undue partisan cost, just do it obviously.

CVAP will still be in play however due to the dilution issue, but I suspect the standard will be high to toss a map out because the minority VAP percentage is too high, unless there is clear and convincing evidence that the VAP percentage was pushed up considerably beyond the percentage necessary for the minority to elect a candidate of their choice, and that was animated by partisan - or to bleach out the congressional delegation - motives.

[Torie]

Bend has a good climate. It's drier. If you want to live east of the Cascades in Oregon, Bend is by far the best game in town as to amenities, and has good airline connections to Portland and SF. My dentist decamped to there. He is deliriously happy so I'm told. He bought a nice little estate on the river, and sold his house at the top of the market in Coto de Caza for about 3 million.  That must have made him even happier.

[Torie]

When I was a kid, St. George, Utah had about 5,000 people. It was a pit stop for folks coming up from LA going on to Salt Lake, Denver or Yellowstone or whatever. I knew the town well. Sleepy little place. My Dad had his booze in the trunk. Now it has quite vast housing tracks, golf courses and the like. It is the climate of course. It is kind of an LDS Palm Springs.

[Torie]

What's with a 70% Asian tract in Lafayette Indiana?

Purdue University.