Official US 2010 Census Results

[minionofmidas]

Oh, and move it to the demographics board maybe?

[minionofmidas]

At round about what pop. figure would RI lose/MT regain its second seat?

[minionofmidas]

So RI is not in danger (yet) and MT will likely lose out fairly narrowly for the third time in a row?

[minionofmidas]

Should this be moved to Muon's newly upgraded board?

Absolutely.

[minionofmidas]

...attentive silence...

[minionofmidas]

So ?

I'll post info as soon as they release it. So far it is all congratulations, thanks, and Why the Census Matters.

So why does it matter?

[minionofmidas]

Marginally below estimates.

[minionofmidas]

Funny how I twice came up against "new reply" thingies, but the second asked the question I was going to answer anyways.

[minionofmidas]

Now I want the total figures per state.

[minionofmidas]

OH -1 or -2? I thought it was -2.

I think it's two.

Yeah, AZ+1 is the most obviously surprising thing here.

[minionofmidas]

...simply because the totals don't add up otherwise.

[minionofmidas]

Not that surprising to me.  By my estimated population numbers I had the LAST FIVE seats going as follows:
Arizona           10th    +2
New York        28th   -1
Washington    10th  +1
Texas              36th  +4
Missouri          9th  

The NEXT FIVE were as such:

California           53rd
Florida               27th +2
Minnesota         8th
North Carolina   14th +1
Oregon              6th +1

So three "errors" (AZ, NY, MO vs CA, FL, MN) but all in the top five, or is anything else wrong? Still makes Arizona the most surprising.

[minionofmidas]

Seat #440: Montana 2 (+1)             Priority: 699,622

This just makes me sick.

[minionofmidas]

Bizarre fun fact:
In 2000, Gore states lost eight seats, gained one; Bush states lost four seats, gained nine; contested Florida gained two seats.
(CT, 2 NY, 2 PA, IL, MI, WI; CA vs OH, IN, MS, OK; NC, 2 GA, 2 TX, CO, 2 AZ, NV)
In 2010, Gore states lost eight seats, gained one; Bush states lost four seats, gained nine; contested Florida gained two seats.
(MA, 2 NY, NJ, PA, IL, MI, IA; WA vs 2 OH, MO, LA; SC, GA, 4 TX, AZ, UT, NV)

[minionofmidas]

For the first time since just about ever, the west was not the fastest-growing region in the US, being overtaken by the south.
Also for the first time since just about ever (if not literally for the first time ever?), the smallest state in the union, which is still Wyoming, won't be the smallest congressional district, as it now has more than half the population of the smallest multi-member state (Rhode Island). It's three EV's are still the cheapest though, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Comparing  these estimates

Here are the calculated April 1, 2010 benchmark numbers for comparison purposes

to the census results... + means the census found more people. Rounding error possible (I rounded both rows before comparing). Sorted into four groups - major errors and minor errors (defined as over app. 1%) in either direction. Sorted geographically within groups.

Connecticut +44k
North Dakota +22k
Nebraska +18k
West Virginia +30k
Alabama +48k
Wyoming +11k
New Mexico +32k
Nevada +37k
Hawaii +59k

Maine +11k
Vermont +4k
New Jersey +51k
Pennsylvania +68k
Indiana +35k
Wisconsin +12k
Minnesota +11k
Iowa +28k
Kansas +18k
Delaware +6k
Maryland +44k
Virginia +53k
North Carolina +54k
South Carolina +20k
Florida +177k
Kentucky +5k
Tennessee +8k
Mississippi +6k
Arkansas +10k
Louisiana +11k
Oklahoma +32k
Texas +5k
Montana +9k
Idaho +8k
California +6k
Alaska +4k

Rhode Island nailed

New Hampshire -11k
Ohio -17k
Michigan -61k
Missouri -22k
South Dakota -4k
District of Columbia -5k
Washington -13k
Oregon -27k

Massachusetts -83k
New York -219k
Illinois -130k
Georgia -240k
Colorado -63k
Arizona -276k
Utah -63k

though listing Florida's almost 1% underestimate in the same category as the really, really remarkably accurate Texan and Californian estimates feels wrong. There's little rhyme or reason to the list, except for the whopping overestimates. These all come either from stagnant or high growth states, while the solid healthy middling growth type of state was fairly likely to be underestimated.
There are, of course, similarly patterned states without similar problems (cough Texas). Estimates are based on state-provided input, and I suppose the list is mostly an argument for inaccuracy of record-keeping in these states rather than census error.

[minionofmidas]

I just found out that the US population actually grew by 500.000 more than what was said in the official release.

Why ?

U.S. military and federal civilian employees and their dependents living with them overseas.

This number was much smaller in 2000 than it was in 2010, because the US was not engaged in 2 wars in 2000 like it is now.

Just take a look at this table here, which gives apportionment data for 2010 and 2000:

http://2010.census.gov/news/xls/apport2010_table1.xls

Apportionment population for 2010 was: 309.183.463

Then you have to add D.C. for a total population of 309.785.186

As you can see, in 2010 there were about 1.040.000 Americans overseas in the military.

For 2000, the number was just 574.000 (Apportionment population: 281.424.177+DC, for a total population of 281.996.236)

This means that roughly 500.000 Americans who were counted in the 2000 Census as "residents" where not counted this year because they have migrated overseas for military service.

Ah, nice one.

Jim - yeah, I was thinking of "since 1870 on account of Nevada, if not before". So apparently 1980 wrecks my claim.

[minionofmidas]

Hmm? What is the major fractions method? I did a few calculations this morning, actually, though with rounded figures because I didn't have access to the internet, and I got Hare-Niemeyer and the US method agreeing this year. Sainte-Lague shifts two seats to larger states; I forget which but Rhode Island wasn't one IIRC. I also did D'Hondt (single seat not just for RI but for ME and NH as well... HI narrowly double-member. About ten or so seat transfers. Oh, and you have to amend it to include an exception so every state gets at least one seat), and the method used by Turkey (one seat per state automatic, remaining seats distributed by D'Hondt with that one seat not taken into account, which in Turkey has the nice effect of making every province/constitutency at least double-member. Similar number of seat transfers but in the other direction this time. SD the smallest double-member state).

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, RI was one of my two Sainte Lague losers after all; I've checked. The other one (Minnesota; though who was the other gainer? New York probably but I'm not sure right now) may be a rounding issue.
The rounding made no difference to the Huntington/Hill method - it so happens that the gap between 435th and 436th was something of a mini natural break this year.

Seat #431: California 53 (nc)         Priority: 709,631
Seat #432: Florida 27 (+2)            Priority: 709,610
Seat #433: Washington 10 (+1)   Priority: 708,829
Seat #434: Minnesota 8 (nc)         Priority: 708,767
Seat #435: Texas 36 (+4)             Priority: 708,396
Seat #436: North Carolina 14 (+1)  Priority: 706,817
Seat #437: Missouri 9 (nc)               Priority: 705,802
Seat #438: New York 28 (-1)           Priority: 704,775
Seat #439: New Jersey 13 (nc)       Priority: 703,915

Biggest gap in the 431 to 439 run. (Much larger gaps just beyond, though.)

[minionofmidas]

We might get some more info on the exact timeline, though. That would be very welcome.

[minionofmidas]

Odd choice of states.

[minionofmidas]

Odd choice of states.

It will even out

You think? Sure they won't end up releasing New Jersey twice and Texas not at all?

[minionofmidas]

Odd choice of states.

Not really, those are the states that have state legislative elections this year, so they need to redistrict ASAP.

Ah, gotcha.

[minionofmidas]

I seem to dimly recall they went in alphabetical order last time.

[minionofmidas]

Ìntra Hampton Roads population shifts are interesting.

Hampton declining, Portsmouth declining, Newport News flat, Chesapeake and Suffolk growing fast but Virginia Beach has more or less stopped growing and Norfolk is rebounding, growing marginally faster than VB.