Official US 2010 Census Results

[dpmapper]

So who is the biggest loser of today's numbers?  I nominate Russ Carnahan. 

[dpmapper]

Losers in 2020:

AL, IL, MI, MN, NY, OH, PA,

Possible:

NE, NJ, PA(2), RI, WV, WI

The small losers would be ranked WV, RI, NE in terms of likelihood of losing seats.

Gainers in 2020:

AZ, CO, FL, GA, NC, OR, TX(3)

Possible:

ID, UT, VA

It could end up based on whether ID surpasses NE in population (this is a necessary condition for ID to gain a seat, and NE to lose a seat, but it is not a sufficient condition).

Assuming growth rates are the same in the next 10 years as they were in the last 10 (big assumption, of course) I calculate:

Gains, in order of priority: NC, AZ, FL, NV, GA, TX (+3), VA, CO.  
possible gains: OR, NC+2, FL +2, ID, MT.  

Losses, in order of certainty: MI, PA, IL, RI, OH, MN, WV, NY (-2), CA.  
possible losses: MI (-2), AL, NE, MA, PA(-2).  

[dpmapper]

El Paso's by about 6%,

That's an additional 40,000 or 50,000 voters going into the new TX-23 then, right?

There's no law saying that TX-23 has to stretch to El Paso.  If I were the TX GOP I'd append the far western part of TX-23 to the Midland district (assuming they're not trying to make that one a majority-minority district as well).