predict house races for your metro/state/region

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I'm interested to see what people think of races in their vicinities, and put them together in this thread to see what we come up with.

here's a start (color of district number represents current party):

VA-1: Rob Wittman retains seat with about 60% 64
VA-2: Scott Rigell 50-55% takes over seat from Glenn Nye. (With Nye's relatively fiscal conservative record, it's possible he could retain his seat, but it would be difficult in this close district with the energy behind the GOP) 52.3
VA-3: Bobby Scott keeps his seat with about 65% of the vote. 70.1
VA-4: Randy Forbes 65-70% 62.3
VA-5: Robert Hurt takes over Perriello's seat,  55-60% 50.8

VA-7: Eric Cantor  65-70% 59.4

MD-1: reverts to GOP yep: 54.6

NC-1: G.K. Butterfield 60% 59.2
NC-3: Walter B. Jones 70-75% 72

more Dem than predicted: VA-7, VA-5, VA-4
on target: VA-2, NC-1, NC-3
more Rep than predicted: VA-1

[tpfkaw]

I suppose I can start on 2012 now.

Tierney's a goner if he faces someone who isn't a mental patient next time, Tsongas could be in mild trouble if she faces serious opposition, everyone else is safe.  The only question is whose district goes after redistricting.  (Easy if either Frank, or Markey retires, or if Lynch is the one to go, will result in a bizarre monstrosity otherwise).

If Tsongas and Tierney didnt lose in 2010, which was the worst year for Democrats since 1920, they arent losing in 2012 when there is an unpopular Republican House. 

Tierney faced Bill Hudak, who's a nutcase that gained notoriety by having an Obama = Osama sign on his front lawn.  He also barely ran a campaign.  Tsongas faced John Golnik, who was a placeholder candidate that didn't run a campaign.  Considering that the "wave" did not really have any apparent effect on Massachusetts, yet both were held around 55%, someone competent and well-funded could easily take out either of them, especially Tierney, who has major ethics trouble (his wife is presently on trial for felony tax fraud).

[Mr.Phips]

I suppose I can start on 2012 now.

Tierney's a goner if he faces someone who isn't a mental patient next time, Tsongas could be in mild trouble if she faces serious opposition, everyone else is safe.  The only question is whose district goes after redistricting.  (Easy if either Frank, or Markey retires, or if Lynch is the one to go, will result in a bizarre monstrosity otherwise).

If Tsongas and Tierney didnt lose in 2010, which was the worst year for Democrats since 1920, they arent losing in 2012 when there is an unpopular Republican House. 

Tierney faced Bill Hudak, who's a nutcase that gained notoriety by having an Obama = Osama sign on his front lawn.  He also barely ran a campaign.  Tsongas faced John Golnik, who was a placeholder candidate that didn't run a campaign.  Considering that the "wave" did not really have any apparent effect on Massachusetts, yet both were held around 55%, someone competent and well-funded could easily take out either of them, especially Tierney, who has major ethics trouble (his wife is presently on trial for felony tax fraud).

In a Presidential year with Obama likely winning these districts with 60% of the vote, no Republican is going to win in either district.  The chance was in 2010. 

[tpfkaw]

I suppose I can start on 2012 now.

Tierney's a goner if he faces someone who isn't a mental patient next time, Tsongas could be in mild trouble if she faces serious opposition, everyone else is safe.  The only question is whose district goes after redistricting.  (Easy if either Frank, or Markey retires, or if Lynch is the one to go, will result in a bizarre monstrosity otherwise).

If Tsongas and Tierney didnt lose in 2010, which was the worst year for Democrats since 1920, they arent losing in 2012 when there is an unpopular Republican House. 

Tierney faced Bill Hudak, who's a nutcase that gained notoriety by having an Obama = Osama sign on his front lawn.  He also barely ran a campaign.  Tsongas faced John Golnik, who was a placeholder candidate that didn't run a campaign.  Considering that the "wave" did not really have any apparent effect on Massachusetts, yet both were held around 55%, someone competent and well-funded could easily take out either of them, especially Tierney, who has major ethics trouble (his wife is presently on trial for felony tax fraud).

In a Presidential year with Obama likely winning these districts with 60% of the vote, no Republican is going to win in either district.  The chance was in 2010. 

Uhh . . . no Democrat has won 60% of the vote in those districts since 1968.

[Mr.Phips]

I suppose I can start on 2012 now.

Tierney's a goner if he faces someone who isn't a mental patient next time, Tsongas could be in mild trouble if she faces serious opposition, everyone else is safe.  The only question is whose district goes after redistricting.  (Easy if either Frank, or Markey retires, or if Lynch is the one to go, will result in a bizarre monstrosity otherwise).

If Tsongas and Tierney didnt lose in 2010, which was the worst year for Democrats since 1920, they arent losing in 2012 when there is an unpopular Republican House. 

Tierney faced Bill Hudak, who's a nutcase that gained notoriety by having an Obama = Osama sign on his front lawn.  He also barely ran a campaign.  Tsongas faced John Golnik, who was a placeholder candidate that didn't run a campaign.  Considering that the "wave" did not really have any apparent effect on Massachusetts, yet both were held around 55%, someone competent and well-funded could easily take out either of them, especially Tierney, who has major ethics trouble (his wife is presently on trial for felony tax fraud).

In a Presidential year with Obama likely winning these districts with 60% of the vote, no Republican is going to win in either district.  The chance was in 2010. 

Uhh . . . no Democrat has won 60% of the vote in those districts since 1968.

Al Gore did and Kerry and Obama came within one point. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Plus if any vulnerability is sensed in any Massachusetts incumbent redistricting will shore them up.