PPP: Palin leads GOP primary

[Tender Branson]

Among all GOP voters:

21% Palin
19% Gingrich
18% Romney
16% Huckabee
  5% Paul
  5% Pawlenty
  3% Thune
  2% Daniels
12% Someone else/Undecided

Among conservative GOP voters (71% of the sample):

24% Palin
23% Gingrich
15% Romney
14% Huckabee
  6% Paul
  5% Pawlenty
  3% Thune
  2% Daniels
  8% Someone else/Undecided

Among moderate GOP voters (28% of the sample):

25% Romney
20% Huckabee
13% Palin
10% Gingrich
  4% Paul
  4% Pawlenty
  3% Thune
  2% Daniels
20% Someone else/Undecided

Among liberal GOP voters (1% of the sample):

26% Romney
74% Someone else/Undecided

PPP surveyed 400 typical national Republican primary voters from November 19th to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_1130.pdf

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

PALIN IS TEH CHOICE OF CONSERVATIVEZ AND ROMNEY IS TEH LIBRUL EVEN THO TWO YEARS AGO WE THOUGHT HE WAS TEH CONSERVATIVE AND PALIN WAS CHOSEN BY TE LIBRUL JUAN MCAMNESTYY.  PALIN 2012!


*this message paid for by a joint effort of the Tea Party Express and Obama 2012 to destroy the Republican Party

[Prez Duke]

Why do I feel like the Republican Party will try their best to throw away a solid opportunity to defeat Obama by nominating a crazy?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Chill out people. National polls are useless.
Just ask Presidents Lieberman and Giuliani.

[Guderian]

Newt doing surprisingly well in a national poll.

[Skill and Chance]

If Huckabee, Gingrich, and Palin all run, then there is probably a huge opening for Romney or Daniels and a stonger nominee for the party overall.  The Palin nomination scenario would have her winning Iowa and being the only "true conservative" left in the game by Super Tuesday with multiple moderate candidates still running.  Watch Huckabee closely.  If he opts out that spells trouble.  

[Clay]

The only polls we should be looking at for the primary are state polls.

[A-Bob]

This will be a crazy race. Huck won't run, that will split his votes for Newt and Palin.

Romney will stay Romney strong, but as Mitch, Thune, and T-Paw climb (At least 2 will run) he'll be the one suffering, leaving a wide open race.

2012 should be plenty fun

[Mr. Morden]

Respondents were also asked for their second choice.  Second choice breakdown:

Sarah Palin 20%
Mike Huckabee 20%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Mitt Romney 13%
Ron Paul 6%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Mitch Daniels 3%
John Thune 1%

fav/unfavorable numbers:

Mike Huckabee 63%/17% for +46%.
Sarah Palin 68%/22% for +46%.
Mitt Romney 56%/24% for +32%.
Newt Gingrich 57%/28% for +29%.

[BlueSwan]

Respondents were also asked for their second choice.  Second choice breakdown:

Sarah Palin 20%
Mike Huckabee 20%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Mitt Romney 13%
Ron Paul 6%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Mitch Daniels 3%
John Thune 1%

Those figures are actually more interesting. They suggest that it is actually not a hate her or love her thing with Palin amongst republicans. At least not to the extent often assumed.

Her biggest obstacle will probably be electability against Obama. Conservatives shockingly love her. Personally I think she might be the antichrist, but hey, people have different tastes.

[WillK]

http://www.palinaspresident.us/

[Mr. Morden]

Second choice of Gingrich voters:

Huckabee 31%
Romney 27%
Palin 19%
Paul 9%

Second choice of Huckabee supporters:

Palin 34%
Gingrich 19%
Romney 17%
Pawlenty 7%

Second choice of Palin supporters:

Huckabee 24%
Gingrich 20%
Romney 12%
Paul 10%

Second choice of Romney supporters:

Palin 27%
Huckabee 23%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 6%

(Palin supporters seem to be the most likely to get confused by the quesiton, and say that Palin is both their first and second choice.  18% of Palin voters said that she was both their first and second choice.)

Leading second choice of other cadidates:

Romney supporters seem to give other candidates the lowest marks.  Huck and Palin both have a 46% favorable rating among Romney voters.  Gingrich has a 41% favorable rating among Romney voters.  In most other cases, supporters of one candidate tend to give competing candidates favorable ratings of over 50%.  Though Romney has just a 40% favorable rating among Palin voters.

PPP's take:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/going-deep-on-republicans.html

The Gingrich and Huckabee voters are going to be fine if someone else gets nominated. They're pretty happy with all the other candidates. The Romney folks perhaps are a greater concern for Republicans because some of them might actually vote for Obama if a Gingrich or Palin gets nominated. The Palin folks aren't all that big on the other candidates either- the chances of them voting for Obama seem quite slim but might they sit home or throw some of their votes to a conservative third party candidate if Romney wins the nomination? All of those things will be interesting to watch.

[Whacker77]

I think Palin is the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.  She has all of the grassroots energy and the backing of the radio flame throwers.  She sucks all of the oxygen out of the room and I don't see anyone on that list who can match her.  She will win Iowa and South Carolina and that will be it.

Unfortunately, this will be like a self inflicted gunshot to the head.  She will lose badly because Independents don't see her as credible.  Much of that is her fault, but the media has played a role as well.  The only thing that stops Palin is a "white Knight" who enters when it's apparent Romney and the gang can't stop her.

I think by next summer, Palin will have consolidated her lead as Huck probably doesn't run.  Same possibly for Newt.  Once it becomes apparent she has a cakewalk to the nomination, I see a "cabal" getting together to prod someone like Christie or Jeb off the sidelines as a duty to the party.

[Skill and Chance]

I think Palin is the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.  She has all of the grassroots energy and the backing of the radio flame throwers.  She sucks all of the oxygen out of the room and I don't see anyone on that list who can match her.  She will win Iowa and South Carolina and that will be it.

Unfortunately, this will be like a self inflicted gunshot to the head.  She will lose badly because Independents don't see her as credible.  Much of that is her fault, but the media has played a role as well.  The only thing that stops Palin is a "white Knight" who enters when it's apparent Romney and the gang can't stop her.

I think by next summer, Palin will have consolidated her lead as Huck probably doesn't run.  Same possibly for Newt.  Once it becomes apparent she has a cakewalk to the nomination, I see a "cabal" getting together to prod someone like Christie or Jeb off the sidelines as a duty to the party.

Convincing Huckabee to run is the best Palin antidote.  Together they could throw the nomination to a moderate like Romney or Daniels.

[Keystone Phil]

If Palin is only leading by two now, her chances of being the nominee are very low.

[A-Bob]

If Palin is only leading by two now, her chances of being the nominee are very low.

and besides all the unknowns rising, that's 2 years for her to gaffe the heck out of this country

[Whacker77]

If Palin is only leading by two now, her chances of being the nominee are very low.

Disagree.  This all comes down to Iowa and South Carolina.  She is the big favorite to win Iowa, especially if Huckabee doesn't run.  After skipping New Hampshire, she'll go down to South Carolina where the evangelical conservative base and Nikki Haley will vote for her.  If she wins those two states, it's over.  The fact Palin is viewed so highly even after quitting two years into her governorship shows how strong she is.

[Keystone Phil]

If Palin is only leading by two now, her chances of being the nominee are very low.

Disagree.  This all comes down to Iowa and South Carolina.  She is the big favorite to win Iowa, especially if Huckabee doesn't run.  After skipping New Hampshire, she'll go down to South Carolina where the evangelical conservative base and Nikki Haley will vote for her.  If she wins those two states, it's over.  The fact Palin is viewed so highly even after quitting two years into her governorship shows how strong she is.

Romney was a huge favorite going into Iowa. Things change.

[Whacker77]

Romney was the favorie in Iowa by default because he spent so much money there.  Still, conservatives had serious issues with him and Huckabee, a social conservative, swooped in and won convicingly.  There are no conservative worries about Palin as there were with Romney.  I think they're two very different instances.  Still, polls can change.

[xavier110]

I do love the Republican spin I've seen in real life & on the internet re: Palin. How does her lead mean she has not shot at winning? LOL. The fact that the Republican machine is scrambling to find a way to deal with her shows how much of a threat she is.

Plus, I agree with the above. The caucus process should put Palin over the edge in a state like Iowa. Palin has been making gaffes for 2 years now. She still remains ahead. She can babble as long as she wants and people will not abandon her. (And she will probably weather/play off the attacks of her opponents well.)

[Invisible Obama]

Definitely the front runner at this point. She wouldn't have any problem gathering up the necessary support in early primary states, a lot of it is already solidified from her non-stop presence for over two years.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

she can't win without the support of jmfcst, who from 1976 has supported every eventual GOP nominee

[emailking]

she can't win without the support of jmfcst, who from 1976 has supported every eventual GOP nominee

She'll probably get it then.

[Whacker77]

Not only is Palin the favorite, she is the prohibative favorite.  No matter what she says or how she says it, her followers become that much more devoted to her.  Considering how strong the conservative vote will be in the 2012 primaries, I feel this race is far, far closer to being over than many might want to think.  Unless there is a major shakeup in the field, she wins.

[BlueSwan]

If Palin is only leading by two now, her chances of being the nominee are very low.

and besides all the unknowns rising, that's 2 years for her to gaffe the heck out of this country

But what kind of gaffe could hurt her at this point? She has already made a complete fool of herself. Everybody should be aware that she is a moron by now. Will the people who love her really be persuaded otherwise by even more gaffes?

I doubt it. Infact I think that she might be close to gaffe-immune at this point. I too regard her as favourite to win the nomination - especially if Huckabee decides against running.