The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Hawaii caucuses have moved to March 13th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/hawaii-gop-moves-caucuses-to-march-13.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP.

[Mr. Morden]

Scott signs the legislation in Florida that hands the power to set the primary date over to a state-appointed board:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/governor-scott-sign-florida-elections.html

The board would be able to set the primary date to any time between the first week of January and the first week of March.  So I've updated the calendar to put Florida in the "TBD, but they want to go first" category.

We also have the first hints of primary movement in one of the biggest early primary states, New York:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/hints-of-april-24-regional-primary-from.html

New York apparently may join a proposed regional primary with PA, CT, and DE.  Only PA is already scheduled for April 24th.  It's not clear whether the GOP-controlled Senate in NY will go along with the later primary though.

[Tender Branson]

It looks like Super Tuesday so far benefits Mitt Romney the most, with many Obama states in the North East, making it harder for a more conservative Republican to win there.

[Mr. Morden]

It looks like Super Tuesday so far benefits Mitt Romney the most, with many Obama states in the North East, making it harder for a more conservative Republican to win there.

That may be a bit deceptive though, because the larger Democratic states like CA, NY, and NJ tend to have legislative sessions that last almost year-round, whereas Republican states are more likely to only be in session for the first five months of the year or so.  So most of the Republican states that used to be on Feb. 7th have already moved their primaries later, while the Democratic ones like CA and NJ will probably do so later in the year.

I still expect that, in all likelihood, enough of the remaining Feb. 7th states will move that it'll make March 6th the new Super Tuesday.

[BushKenya]

Morden, do you think it's more likely to have IA, NH, SC, and NV in January or February?  According to your calendar on the OP, I suspect January, am I correct in the assumption?  When do you think we'll know for sure on especially Iowa and New Hampshire since they traditionally the first two states?  IIRC, wasn't it pretty late in 2007 when January 3, 2008 was set as the Iowa Caucus date?

[Mr. Morden]

Morden, do you think it's more likely to have IA, NH, SC, and NV in January or February?  According to your calendar on the OP, I suspect January, am I correct in the assumption?  When do you think we'll know for sure on especially Iowa and New Hampshire since they traditionally the first two states?  IIRC, wasn't it pretty late in 2007 when January 3, 2008 was set as the Iowa Caucus date?

I think there's virtually a 100% chance that Iowa at least will be in January, and I strongly suspect that New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada will be as well (and probably Florida too....plus maybe Michigan).  Even if only one of those states on Feb. 7th or 11th stays put, Iowa and NH will schedule their contests for January, as NH always goes at least 7 days before any other primary, and Iowa always goes a week before NH.

Last time around, the Jan. 8th, 2008 date for the NH wasn't set until Nov. 21, 2007:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21920411/ns/politics-decision_08/t/earliest-ever-nh-primary-set-jan/

It might be set similarly late this time, as Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan may keep us guessing until fairly late in the year.  NH always tries to wait everyone else out, so that they can make sure they go first.  The newly passed legislation in Florida at least means that they'll have to decide by Oct. 1st, so maybe that'll be something of a marker.  If, say, Florida and Michigan both set their primaries for Jan. 31, then that would probably give IA, NH, and SC enough information that they could set their own dates.

[jimrtex]

States are required to mail military ballots for federal elections 45 days before the election.  So 60 days is probably a minimum.  Florida, South Carolina, and New Hampshire have to get pre-clearance to change their election dates.

Someone ought to do an "early March" all mail-election, and mail out ballots 45 days early.

[RogueBeaver]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55631.html

Louisiana is moving their caucuses up to either late January or early February and has changed the rules again. Due to Gingrich's implosion this is up for grabs. Jindal is a not-so-covert Romney backer and has been sending out barely coded signals for months to that effect. Sen. Birther will do the opposite of what Jindal does for feudal reasons. JNK is as unpredictable as Palin, ditto for Dardenne. Landry and Scalise will follow Jindal's lead. No public endorsements seem likely at this stage.

[Mr. Morden]

Colorado moves to March 6th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/colorado-presidential-caucuses-move-to.html

Calendar has been updated.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55631.html

Louisiana is moving their caucuses up to either late January or early February and has changed the rules again. Due to Gingrich's implosion this is up for grabs. Jindal is a not-so-covert Romney backer and has been sending out barely coded signals for months to that effect. Sen. Birther will do the opposite of what Jindal does for feudal reasons. JNK is as unpredictable as Palin, ditto for Dardenne. Landry and Scalise will follow Jindal's lead. No public endorsements seem likely at this stage.

Louisiana is one of the states that annoys me by making their delegate selection plans needlessly complicated. 

As FHQ notes:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/05/louisiana-republicans-craft-new.html

they've done the caucus/primary 2-step thing before.  And in fact, even had an early caucus in 2008, which everyone ignored.  Are the delegate allocation rules markedly different this time from last time?  In what way are they different?  For now, I've just got the Louisiana primary on the calendar.  Will add the caucus date as well once they announce a specific date.

[Tender Branson]

Mr. Morden, do you know until which date each state has to set it's primary/caucus date, so that the calendar is finalized ?

[realisticidealist]

The entire calendar may not be finalized until October or November, depending on how long Florida and Georgia wait to decide their dates.

[Mr. Morden]

Mr. Morden, do you know until which date each state has to set it's primary/caucus date, so that the calendar is finalized ?

Good question.  For primary states, in most cases (I'll list the exceptions I know about below), the date can remain unresolved until whenever the legislature adjourns.  FHQ lists these dates here:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/01/frontloading-starts-with-state.html

It should be noted that in AL and MO, the legislature has already passed legislation moving the primary to March, and it awaits the respective governors' signatures.  So even though the MO legislature has already adjourned, the primary date there depends on whether Nixon signs the bill or not.  (CT is one to watch right now, as the legislature apparently adjourns within days, and only one house of the legislature has passed legislation moving the primary to March.)

Some of those state legislatures meet year-round.  So they could potentially wait until very late in the year to move.  However, as jimrtex noted, states now have to announce any election date at least ~60 days in advance, in order to mail out military absentee ballots in time.  So we can no longer have a situation where a state sets an early January primary in late November.

States where the primary date can still remain up in the air after the legislature adjourns:

AZ: The primary date is set for Feb. 28, but the governor can move it up to Feb. 7th if she wants.  I don't know what the deadline for that decision is.

FL: "Independent" commission (though it's appointed by the GOP-controlled legislature) sets the primary date, and they have until Oct. 1 to decide.

GA: The state's SoS sets the primary, and he has until Dec. 1 to decide.

NH: The state's SoS sets the primary date, and he can wait as long as he wants before announcing the date.

SC: The state parties set their own primary dates, and I believe they can wait as long as they want before announcing the date.

In the caucus and county/district convention states, the state parties set their own dates, and they can wait as long as they want in announcing what date to hold the caucus.  All of the caucus dates I list should be considered very tentative other than CO, HI, and MN.

[jimrtex]

Texas ended up keeping the primary on the first Tuesday in March, assuming Perry signs the law.

[Mr. Morden]

The Utah GOP has decided to go with a June 26th primary, which puts them at the very end of the primary calendar (three weeks after any other state has voted):

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/06/utah-republicans-opt-to-link-2012.html

It is in fact allowable within the RNC rules to go this late.  Though I think that's the latest any state has ever gone.

Calendar in the OP has thus been updated.

[Lief]

Poor Mittens.

[Mr. Morden]

Alabama has moved to March 13, same day as Mississippi and Hawaii:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/06/alabama-presidential-primary-to-march.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Mr. Morden]

The New York legislature passed a bill that would move the primary to April 24, the same day as PA.  It's not official yet, as Cuomo has to sign the bill, but I would assume that he'll sign it.  It may look like there are still quite a few February primaries on the calendar, but almost all of those states are on track to move their primaries later.  Most of the caucus states will probably do so as well, though that's less certain.  I have no idea what Kansas or Washington are going to do, for example.

But assuming that the caucus states end up moving later just like most of the primary states, there are still going to be four "problem states" (from the perspective of the RNC rules) that seem determined to stick with a Jan/Feb primary or caucus: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota.  MN actually might not be a problem, because the candidates will probably ignore it, since the caucus isn't strictly binding on delegate allocation (though technically, that's the case for a lot of caucuses), and because there's a favorite son and a favorite daughter candidate running.  It's actually possible that NH might go the same day as MN, figuring that the candidates will ignore MN.

The prime movers are likely to be AZ and MI (neither of which are likely to decide anything for another couple of months).  You might end up with something like this:

Feb. 1: IA
Feb. 7: NH, MN
Feb. 18: NV, SC
Feb. 21: FL
Feb. 28: AZ, MI
Mar. 6: Super Tuesday

That's about the latest that the primary season might start.  OTOH, it's just as likely that you'll end up with something like this:

Jan. 5: IA
Jan. 10: NH
Jan. 21: NV, SC
Jan. 24: FL
Jan. 31: MI
Feb. 7: AZ, MN
Feb. 11: KS, WA
Mar. 6: Super Tuesday

Or you could get something in between.  We probably won't know until August or September or so.

[True Federalist]

There is a slight chance that the SC GOP will hold a caucus instead of a primary.

(link - The State)

It looks certain that Haley will issue a line-item veto on the appropriation for a State run presidential primary. It looks probable that the Democrats along with some Tea Party Republicans will vote to sustain that veto. That doesn't rule out the possibility that the SC GOP won't raise the money to hold a primary on its own, and while I think it likely they will, it isn't certain.

The only thing that might derail the GOP primary would be if the Attorney General rules that the State Election Commission cannot rent out its equipment to the GOP for a party-run primary, but I doubt Wilson will do that.  I just can't see the SC GOP being able to get the voting machines needed if it has to bring it in from out of state.

[Governor NVGonzalez]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/06/26/south_carolina_could_kill_gop_primary.html



South Carolina's "much-watched first-in-the-South Republican presidential primary could become a far less important first-in-the-South caucus," the Columbia State reports.

"Without the help of the state, the party may not legally be able to hold a primary in early 2012... Gov. Nikki Haley is expected to veto part of a state budget proposal, now on her desk, that could partially pay for that primary."

"Switching to a caucus would end the state's three-decade tradition of holding the first-in-the-South primary. That primary's importance has been bolstered by state Republican voters' record of picking the eventual GOP nominee in every race since Ronald Reagan in 1980. The state also would lose national exposure, prestige and millions of dollars that campaigns, media and others spend during the event."

[Alaska Thunderfvck]

Womp.

[Jbrase]

Good, there is no reason for the states to subsidize corporations.

[True Federalist]

Elections Commission can run GOP primary, Attorney general says
(link - The State)

As I thought, Wilson okayed the GOP paying for a statewide primary if it can raise the funds, which I think it will be able to do so.  Still, that'll be around $600,000 the GOP wishes it could spend otherwise.

[Simfan34]

The Utah GOP has decided to go with a June 26th primary, which puts them at the very end of the primary calendar (three weeks after any other state has voted):

It is in fact allowable within the RNC rules to go this late.  Though I think that's the latest any state has ever gone.

Calendar in the OP has thus been updated.

Putting off the tough decisions... well it'll probably help Huntsman, so why am I complaining?

[True Federalist]

SC: The state parties set their own primary dates, and I believe they can wait as long as they want before announcing the date.

They have to set the date 90 days before the primary is held, so I can say for certain that the SC primary will not be held any earlier than September 28 of this year.

The political party shall give written notice to the State Election Commission of the date set for the party's presidential preference primary no later than ninety days before the date of the primary.

Note this only applies to a State funded primary.  If the GOP raises funds to hold a primary without State assistance, it can hold it whenever it wants to.  Not they will likely do so now that Haley's line-item veto of the appropriation has been overridden.

[Mr. Morden]

The Louisiana primary has been moved to March 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/06/louisiana-presidential-primary-to-march.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.