The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Kansas caucus to March 10th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/08/kansas-gop-chooses-march-10-for.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Mr. Morden]

In Michigan, a bill has been introduced in the state senate that would set up a panel to determine the state's primary date, though the panel would only be allowed to choose dates between Feb. 28 and March 6:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/08/legislation-to-create-presidential.html

The panel would have to decide by Oct. 1, which isn't that far away, given that this legislation hasn't even been voted on yet.

Meanwhile, the clock ticks down towards Sept. 2nd.  If Jan Brewer wants to move Arizona's primary date to Jan. 31 as her spokesman suggested she might, she will have to announce it by next week Friday (Sept. 2).  If she does move it to Jan. 31, then it could easily lead to a domino effect that has Iowa voting in the first week of January.  The fate of the 2012 primary calendar rests in this woman's hands:

[Mr. Morden]

It's been almost long enough that all that is needed is for the lower house to meet for the NJ bill to become law without Christie's signature.  (when they first meet on or after August 13)

It's the lower house that has to meet for it to become law without his signature?  Because I believe the state senate met for one day last week, but I don't think the assembly has met recently.

Anyway, here is a mini-update on the confirmed or potential pre-Super Tuesday states:

Arizona

Primary is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 28, but Gov. Brewer can unilaterally move it to an earlier date, as long as she gives at least 150 days notice.  Her spokesman said that she's leaning towards moving it up to Jan. 31.  But she would have to announce that by Sept. 2 (this coming Friday).  If she doesn't announce anything this week, then the rumor is that she would instead move it up to Feb. 14 (the 100th anniversary of Arizona statehood).

Colorado

Caucus is scheduled for March 6, but the CO GOP has said that they might move it up to Feb. 7.  But chances are better than 50/50 that they'll just stick with March 6 (Super Tuesday).

Florida

10 person committee to set the primary date still hasn't been named.  They will have to decide on a date by Oct. 1.  Florida officials have said in the past that they want to go fifth (before every other state except IA/NH/NV/SC), but they may or may not stick to that.  If Arizona goes all the way up to Jan. 31, then I don't think it's a certainty that Florida will go earlier.

Georgia

Georgia's Republican Secretary of State can set the date himself, and every indication is that he wants to go before Super Tuesday.  How much earlier than Super Tuesday is uncertain.  But he probably won't push things any earlier than Arizona and Florida.

Michigan

Currently schedule for Feb. 28.  Legislature will consider legislation to set up a committee that can set the date between Feb. 28 and March 6.  They will have to act fast to get this passed though.

Minnesota

Caucus is scheduled for Feb. 7.  Though my guess is that the candidates will largely ignore it, as there's a favorite daughter candidate (Bachmann), and the caucus results are technically non-binding on delegates.  I doubt that NV, SC, or FL would care if Minnesota goes before them, under such circumstances.

Missouri

Legislature passed a bill to move the primary to March 6, but Nixon vetoed it because of unrelated provisions that he objected to.  The legislature will, some time in the September special session, probably either override his veto or pass a clean bill.  So Missouri will probably move to March 6, but it's not guaranteed.

New Jersey

The legislature has passed a bill to move the primary to June, but Christie has neither signed it nor vetoed it yet.  Once the state assembly meets, it'll become law anyway, unless Christie vetoes it first.

Wisconsin

Bill to move the primary to April has passed one house of the legislature, and will probably pass the other house and be signed by Walker in September.  Not a sure thing though.

Wyoming

The Wyoming GOP met earlier today, and the date of the county conventions was on the agenda.  It was tentatively on the calendar for Jan. 7, but would probably be moved later.  Haven't heard anything about what was decided.

Alaska, Maine, North Dakota, and Washington

Will probably all announce new caucus / convention dates before Oct. 1.  Alaska and Washington are likely to move to March or later.  Maine and North Dakota could go either way.

Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina

Nevada already announced Feb. 18 for their caucus date, but will probably end up moving earlier, to get in front of other states.  IA, NH, and SC will wait until every other state announces, and then set their own dates, to make sure they can go first.

[Mr. Morden]

Wyoming county conventions move to March 6-10:

http://trib.com/news/opinion/blogs/capitol/article_9729132e-d28f-11e0-b7b9-001cc4c002e0.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Tender Branson]

Arizona update:

Ms. Brewer’s spokesman told The Boston Globe on Monday that the governor “continues to lean toward Jan. 31.”

But he also said that there were other options, too. The governor might decide not to risk the ire of the Republican party schedulers and instead hold a debate in the state in January. That way, the state could feel like it has influence on the course of the nomination primary.

“A debate would be one way to really shine the light on Arizona issues, such as illegal immigration and border issues,” Matthew Benson, Ms. Brewer’s spokesman, told The Globe.

Will that be enough for Ms. Brewer and the other Arizona boosters? We should know by Saturday.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/will-arizona-scramble-the-republican-primary-calendar

[Senator Ben]

Looking at the tentative schedule, things look pretty easy for Perry.  Most of the early states are strong Perry states, and I don't see much room for Romney to regain momentum after New Hampshire.

[Mr. Morden]

I think I previously stated that Jan Brewer has until Friday to announce whether she wants to move the primary to as early as Jan. 31.  It's actually Saturday.  Still, she'll probably say something about it on Friday.  Here's her Twitter feed if you must know:

https://twitter.com/#!/GovBrewer

[Mr. Morden]

Brewer speaks: Arizona primary will *not* be held on Jan. 31:

link

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer has decided against moving up the state's presidential primary in 2012 by nearly a month to Jan. 31.

Brewer tells The Associated Press on Friday that she's leaving open her options of still moving the Feb. 28 primary date to an earlier date. She says the state has been tentatively allotted a Republican presidential candidates' debate by the Republican National Committee.

So, to clarify, the primary is still tentatively scheduled for Feb. 28, and Brewer can still move the primary to earlier in February.  But she says she's not moving it into January (and this weekend would have been her last chance to do so).

So, the waiting game continues.  If she wants to keep the primary on a Tuesday, then she has until *next* week Saturday to decide whether she wants to move the primary to Feb. 7, and the Saturday after that to decide if it'll be Feb. 14, etc.  Because whatever the primary date is, she has to announce it at least 150 days in advance.

[Mr. Morden]

The South Carolina GOP chairman says he's been talking to the Florida GOP, and they both intend to hold their primaries earlier than Arizona, no matter what:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/in-2012-the-calendar-is-king-the-note-2/

[Landslide Lyndon]

At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.

[BushKenya]

At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.

Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

[Mr. Morden]

At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.

Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

It's still absolutely possible.  If Arizona moves to Feb. 7th, or if Missouri sticks with Feb. 7th because they can't get the new primary bill through the legislature or something, then you could have:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 31 FL
Feb. other states, like AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc.
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

Depends on any number of things, like how much space SC thinks it needs before Florida, whether Georgia tries to go really early or not, etc.

What I think is off the table though is Iowa voting in December.  Hard to see how that's going to happen now.

[Yelnoc]

At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.

Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

It's still absolutely possible.  If Arizona moves to Feb. 7th, or if Missouri sticks with Feb. 7th because they can't get the new primary bill through the legislature or something, then you could have:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 31 FL
Feb. other states, like AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc.
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

Depends on any number of things, like how much space SC thinks it needs before Florida, whether Georgia tries to go really early or not, etc.

What I think is off the table though is Iowa voting in December.  Hard to see how that's going to happen now.

What if Brewer moves Arizona to January 31 and then both Florida and Georgia determine they want to go before Arizona?

[BushKenya]

At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.

Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

It's still absolutely possible.  If Arizona moves to Feb. 7th, or if Missouri sticks with Feb. 7th because they can't get the new primary bill through the legislature or something, then you could have:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 31 FL
Feb. other states, like AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc.
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

Depends on any number of things, like how much space SC thinks it needs before Florida, whether Georgia tries to go really early or not, etc.

What I think is off the table though is Iowa voting in December.  Hard to see how that's going to happen now.

What if Brewer moves Arizona to January 31 and then both Florida and Georgia determine they want to go before Arizona?

That's highly unlikely to happen as Gov. Brewer nixed the idea of January 31. Now, she still could go earlier in February if she wants.  It remains to be seen what the Madame Governor will do.

[I left.]

Make them all as late as possible...

[BushKenya]

Make them all as late as possible...

That's not as fun for us political junkies, plus that would eliminate 10 1/4 straight months of elections!!

[I left.]

Make them all as late as possible...

That's not as fun for us political junkies, plus that would eliminate 10 1/4 straight months of elections!!

Precisely. Less mindless campaigning, less TV commercials...and maybe, just maybe some productive work in the absence of the never ending election season.

[A-Bob]

If Arizona moves up and Missouri sticks, the earlier will all move up back to Jan and then you can be sure Colorado will move up to early Feb as well. Especially since the GOP Chair used to be a Romney staffer (and is Mormon) and now Perry is a potential threat, obviously they are extremely arrogant thinking Romney will carry the caucus again and putting a strong Romney showing up in the first few states will of course in theory help the campaign immensely. Especially since we do have some delegates, even if we are cut in half.

[Mr. Morden]

At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.

Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

It's still absolutely possible.  If Arizona moves to Feb. 7th, or if Missouri sticks with Feb. 7th because they can't get the new primary bill through the legislature or something, then you could have:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 31 FL
Feb. other states, like AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc.
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

Depends on any number of things, like how much space SC thinks it needs before Florida, whether Georgia tries to go really early or not, etc.

What I think is off the table though is Iowa voting in December.  Hard to see how that's going to happen now.

What if Brewer moves Arizona to January 31 and then both Florida and Georgia determine they want to go before Arizona?

Brewer can no longer move up to Jan. 31.  The deadline for doing that was today, and she said she's not doing it.

And Georgia can't go any earlier than Jan. 31.  Jan. 31 is the earliest their primary law allows them to go.

[Yelnoc]

Ok, so something like this might this be the earliest possible calendar?

Dec. 29 IA
Jan. 3 NH
Jan. 14 SC
Jan. 21 NV
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 GA
Feb. 7 AZ, MN, MO
Feb. 28 MI
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

[Mr. Morden]

Ok, so something like this might this be the earliest possible calendar?

Dec. 29 IA
Jan. 3 NH
Jan. 14 SC
Jan. 21 NV
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 GA
Feb. 7 AZ, MN, MO
Feb. 28 MI
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

That is possible in theory, but my sense is that SC and FL are willing to play ball in keeping Iowa out of December.  Which means that if Georgia actually goes all the way up to Jan. 31 (which it probably won't, but suppose it does), then we would either get this:

Jan. 3, 4, or 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 GA

or this:

Jan. 3, 4, or 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 28 FL
Jan. 31 GA

depending on whether Florida is cool with a Saturday primary, and whether they want more breathing room before or after their primary.

It's not in South Carolina's interest to go so early that Iowa votes in December.  If Iowa votes in December, then there'll be even more calls to radically reform the process for next time, which could lead to South Carolina losing its privileged position near the start of the calendar in 2016.

[Bacon King]

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/arizona-presidential-primary-calendar.html

Statutory requirements in Florida require the states to pick a primary date by October 1st; similarly, Arizona's 150 day requirement means that Brewer would also have to make a decision by October 1st. In Georgia, however, Secretary of State Brian Kemp doesn't have to decide on a primary date until December 1st (with the requirement that the primary must be at least 60 days after he announces it). Also note that the new law, unusually for Georgia, has no requirement that the election take place on a Tuesday.

I don't think he'll wait until December to decide, of course, and I doubt he'll use his authority to cut ahead of the first four states. I think its entirely possible though that he'll wait until after October 1st so he can make sure Georgia doesn't go after Florida. My best guess is that he'll end up picking a date somewhere between the day that Florida votes and the Monday/Tuesday after South Carolina votes (SC always has their primaries on a Saturday, right?).

[Yelnoc]

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/arizona-presidential-primary-calendar.html

Statutory requirements in Florida require the states to pick a primary date by October 1st; similarly, Arizona's 150 day requirement means that Brewer would also have to make a decision by October 1st. In Georgia, however, Secretary of State Brian Kemp doesn't have to decide on a primary date until December 1st (with the requirement that the primary must be at least 60 days after he announces it). Also note that the new law, unusually for Georgia, has no requirement that the election take place on a Tuesday.

I don't think he'll wait until December to decide, of course, and I doubt he'll use his authority to cut ahead of the first four states. I think its entirely possible though that he'll wait until after October 1st so he can make sure Georgia doesn't go after Florida. My best guess is that he'll end up picking a date somewhere between the day that Florida votes and the Monday/Tuesday after South Carolina votes (SC always has their primaries on a Saturday, right?).

I can only see Georgia trying to cut ahead of the others if a) Kemp is a Tea Partier and b) Perry implodes and Cain becomes the Tea Party candidate.  Not impossible, but not likely, IMO.

[Mr. Morden]

Indeed, I think I had previously stated that Georgia can't go earlier than Jan. 31.  But it looks like I misunderstood the primary law there.  Georgia can in fact go as early as Jan. 1, as long as the SoS announces the date at least 60 days in advance of the primary:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/red-flags-raised-some-comments-on.html

So yes, Georgia has all the cards over Florida.  They can match Florida's primary date and go earlier if desired.  Whether SoS Brian Kemp actually wants to do that or not is unclear.

[Mr. Morden]

Jan Brewer has announced that she will *not* move up Arizona's primary, thereby locking in the primary date for February 28:

http://www.azgovernor.gov/dms/upload/PR_091211_PPEDate.pdf

Attention now shifts to Florida and Georgia (which will go first, and when will they vote?), and the question of which of the other pre-Feb. 28 primary/caucus states will end up moving.  It's still possible that the only states that will stick with pre-Feb. 28th primary/caucus dates will be IA, NH, NV, SC, MN, FL, and GA, but we'll have to wait and see.