The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Ohio moved to May 8th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/ohio-presidential-primary-to-may-8.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Mr. Morden]

Rhode Island moves to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/rhode-island-presidential-primary-to.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

In Missouri, Nixon vetoes the bill that would move the primary to March:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/nixon-vetoes-missouri-presidential.html

He votoed it because of other provisions in the bill, not related to the primary date.  At present, Missouri is scheduled for a Feb. 7th primary, which would mean a 50% delegate penalty.  However, there is likely to be a special legislative session in MO this year, and the primary date is one of the issues that might be revisited.

[Yelnoc]

Below is my estimation of the final GOP primary season schedule.


February 6, 2012: Iowa caucuses

February 14, 2012: New Hampshire primary

February 18, 2012: Nevada caucuses

February 28, 2012: South Carolina primary

March 1, 2012: Florida primary

March 2, 2012: Georgia primary

March 6, 2012: Colorado, Minnesota caucuses; Arizona, Massachusetts, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia primaries

March 11, 2012: Maine caucuses

March 13, 2012: Hawaii and Wyoming caucuses; Alabama and Mississippi primaries

March 20, 2012: Illinois primary

March 24, 2012: Louisiana primary

April 3, 2012: Maryland, Washington D.C., and Wisconsin primaries

April 14, 2012: Kansas caucuses

April 15, 2012: Alaska and Washington caucuses

April 24, 2012: Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and New York primaries

May 5, 2012: Michigan caucus

May 8, 2012: Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia primaries

May 15, 2012: Idaho, Nebraska, and Oregon primaries

May 22, 2012: Arkansas and Kentucky primaries

June 5, 2012: Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota primaries; North Dakota caucus

June 12, 2012: New Jersey primary

June 19, 2012: California primary

June 26, 2012: Utah caucuses

August 27-30, 2012: Republican National Convention is held in Tampa Bay, Florida

[Mr. Morden]

The Arizona legislature has already adjourned for the year, so they can't move the primary later than Feb. 28th.  They can only move *earlier*, if Gov. Brewer decides to do so.

And Feb. 28th is unlikely for SC, since I think they also hold their primary on a Saturday.

[Yelnoc]

The Arizona legislature has already adjourned for the year, so they can't move the primary later than Feb. 28th.  They can only move *earlier*, if Gov. Brewer decides to do so.

And Feb. 28th is unlikely for SC, since I think they also hold their primary on a Saturday.

I thought Brewer had the option to move it later?

[Mr. Morden]

The Arizona legislature has already adjourned for the year, so they can't move the primary later than Feb. 28th.  They can only move *earlier*, if Gov. Brewer decides to do so.

And Feb. 28th is unlikely for SC, since I think they also hold their primary on a Saturday.

I thought Brewer had the option to move it later?

No, she can leave it where it is or move it earlier.

[Mr. Morden]

CT has moved to April 24th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/governor-malloys-signature-moves.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

[True Federalist]

The Arizona legislature has already adjourned for the year, so they can't move the primary later than Feb. 28th.  They can only move *earlier*, if Gov. Brewer decides to do so.

And Feb. 28th is unlikely for SC, since I think they also hold their primary on a Saturday.

While it is traditional by now for the Republicans to hold it on a Saturday, there's no requirement to do so.  The only day of the week it certainly will not be held on is Sunday, as we've got too many polling places located at churches to make that possible.

[Mr. Morden]

It's still very much a question mark as to whether either Missouri or Wisconsin will move from their current February dates.  FHQ speculates that if Missouri stays on Feb. 7th, then FL, GA, and MI might all jump up to late January, and we might end up with something like this:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/follow-up-on-missouri-presidential.html

January
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Michigan
Georgia

February
7th Missouri
21st Wisconsin
28th Arizona

And that's not including some of the caucus states that may or may not stick with February.  Minnesota, for example, looks very likely to stick with Feb. 7th.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

It's still very much a question mark as to whether either Missouri or Wisconsin will move from their current February dates.  FHQ speculates that if Missouri stays on Feb. 7th, then FL, GA, and MI might all jump up to late January, and we might end up with something like this:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/follow-up-on-missouri-presidential.html

January
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Michigan
Georgia

February
7th Missouri
21st Wisconsin
28th Arizona

And that's not including some of the caucus states that may or may not stick with February.  Minnesota, for example, looks very likely to stick with Feb. 7th.

Any one in February even a caucus would push Iowa (and then everything) into January, no?  Pawlenty is hoping Minnesota goes the day after Iowa but we can assume that won't happen.

[Mr. Morden]

New York has now moved to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/cuomo-signs-bill-moving-new-york.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.  Also, the California legislature has passed a bill moving the state's primary to June 5th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/california-senate-passes-june.html

but it's not official until Brown signs it.

Feb. 7th is dead as Super Tuesday.  March 6th is the new Super Tuesday.  Though it's an extremely weak Super Tuesday, as there are only 7 states voting that day.  (Though a couple more will probably end up joining.)  But yes, March 6th is the date that'll have the most delegates at stake.  If both California and New Jersey move to June 5th as expected, then June 5th will probably be the date with the second most delegates at stake.

[Mr. Morden]

Any one in February even a caucus would push Iowa (and then everything) into January, no?  Pawlenty is hoping Minnesota goes the day after Iowa but we can assume that won't happen.

That's a good question.  It's actually more complicated than you might think.  NH says they will go at least one week before any other primary/caucus other than Iowa, and Iowa says they will go before NH.

But in reality, there have been numerous occasions in recent decades when Iowa and/or NH allowed some other state to go before them.  That's because Iowa and NH don't care about other states going before them, as long as those other states are mostly ignored by the candidates and the media.  In 2008, for example, Wyoming selected their delegates at county conventions, which were held after Iowa, but before NH.  NH didn't care, because Wyoming was largely ignored by the media.  In 1996, Louisiana held caucuses before both Iowa and NH, but most of the candidates boycotted the state, so as to respect the Iowa/NH tradition.

Which contests might go before Iowa and/or NH in 2012?  My calendar lists early dates for WY county conventions, WV state convention, and AK district conventions.  It's hard to imagine Iowa or NH complaining much about any of them going first, because those contests would all be ignored by the media.  Maine caucuses (because they're held over multiple days, and all the candidates skipped them last time) *might* also be able to get by going before at least NH.

The interesting case is Minnesota.  The Minnesota GOP wants to hold their caucus on Feb. 7th, and they're arguing that they should be exempt from the 50% delegate penalty because the caucus results are technically non-binding on delegate allocation.  But that's also the case in several other caucuses as well, and it doesn't necessarily prevent the candidates from campaigning there.  The other thing though is that MN has both a favorite son and favorite daughter candidate in the race, which makes it less likely that there'll be much campaigning there.

If other states cooperate, and the RNC is really determined not to start primary season before February, and NH gets assurances from all the candidates that won't compete in Minnesota's "rogue" caucuses, then there might even be a chance that this hypothetical calendar will come to pass, with MN and NH on the same day:

Feb. 1: IA
Feb. 7: NH, MN
Feb. 18: NV, SC
Feb. 21: FL
Feb. 28: AZ, MI
Mar. 6: Super Tuesday

[Tender Branson]

New York has now moved to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/cuomo-signs-bill-moving-new-york.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.  Also, the California legislature has passed a bill moving the state's primary to June 5th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/california-senate-passes-june.html

but it's not official until Brown signs it.

Feb. 7th is dead as Super Tuesday.  March 6th is the new Super Tuesday.  Though it's an extremely weak Super Tuesday, as there are only 7 states voting that day.  (Though a couple more will probably end up joining.)  But yes, March 6th is the date that'll have the most delegates at stake.  If both California and New Jersey move to June 5th as expected, then June 5th will probably be the date with the second most delegates at stake.

Very bad for Mitt if they move back.

BTW, Mr. Morden, check your PMs and tell me what you think about it.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

New York has now moved to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/cuomo-signs-bill-moving-new-york.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.  Also, the California legislature has passed a bill moving the state's primary to June 5th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/california-senate-passes-june.html

but it's not official until Brown signs it.

Feb. 7th is dead as Super Tuesday.  March 6th is the new Super Tuesday.  Though it's an extremely weak Super Tuesday, as there are only 7 states voting that day.  (Though a couple more will probably end up joining.)  But yes, March 6th is the date that'll have the most delegates at stake.  If both California and New Jersey move to June 5th as expected, then June 5th will probably be the date with the second most delegates at stake.

Very bad for Mitt if they move back.

I'll dissent.  I think it's really good news for him.  I like his chances of winning NY and CA and their being penalized could have cost him the nomination.  And I don't think winning them earlier would have given him a knockout in any case.

[Mr. Morden]

NH Secretary of State Bill Gardner admits the obvious: New Hampshire will almost certainly hold its primary earlier than the Feb. 14 date that the national parties would like:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/gardner-speaks-new-hampshire-might-not.html

As FHQ blogger Josh Putnam says:

Again, as I said earlier this week, the most likely scenario will see the four earliest states in January with a smattering of rogue, non-compliant states mostly in February but perhaps slipping into the end of January. Every other state will follow on or after March 6.

[Mr. Morden]

The Idaho GOP will now be holding a caucus on March 6th (Super Tuesday):

link

I've added that to the calendar.  I've removed the Idaho primary from the calendar, because it'll now be utterly meaningless, with both parties allocating their delegates by caucus.  I'm only listing contests that actually allocate delegates.

[bgwah]

What source do you have for the Washington GOP's caucus date? (I'm hoping it's okay I don't feel like reading 12 pages of this thread to find out!)

[Mr. Morden]

What source do you have for the Washington GOP's caucus date? (I'm hoping it's okay I don't feel like reading 12 pages of this thread to find out!)

It's just a guess from the Green Papers:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

which I think is just based off of when they held it last time.

[bgwah]

What source do you have for the Washington GOP's caucus date? (I'm hoping it's okay I don't feel like reading 12 pages of this thread to find out!)

It's just a guess from the Green Papers:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

which I think is just based off of when they held it last time.

Oh, I see. Well, I believe they previously based it off of the primary, which the state canceled. So I was curious if the state GOP could schedule it at a different date.

[Mr. Morden]

Oh, I see. Well, I believe they previously based it off of the primary, which the state canceled. So I was curious if the state GOP could schedule it at a different date.

The WA GOP can schedule it for whenever they like.  They haven't really scheduled it for real yet.  I think they'll do so in August or something.  I suppose I could move it to "TBD" on the calendar.  When I started the calendar, everything was assigned a date except IA, NH, and SC.

[Gustaf]

Most of the early primaries look like they could be pretty favourable to Romney. An opponent would probably have to hang on until March (probably by winning Iowa and/or South Carolina) where it seems to be very Southern.

There is an interesting division this time around with no real Super Tuesday.

[A-Bob]

Colorado republicans may move up

http://www.coloradopeakpolitics.com/diary/513/make-colorado-count-gop-chair-ryan-call-considering-moving-colorado-gop-caucus-to-february

[Simfan34]

Move it! Move it! Move it NJ! Let me vote in my primary!

[Keystone Phil]

Move it! Move it! Move it NJ! Let me vote in my primary!

They already moved it back to June. 

[Mr. Morden]

Move it! Move it! Move it NJ! Let me vote in my primary!

They already moved it back to June. 

Not official yet, as Christie hasn't signed the bill.