The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Sounds to me like NH will go Tues 1/3 and Iowa will go the last week of December.

[Mr. Morden]

Sounds to me like NH will go Tues 1/3 and Iowa will go the last week of December.

I just don't believe they'd hold the caucus on the day after Christmas, or really any time that week between X-mas and New Year's..  If they're going in December, it'll probably be in the week before Christmas, perhaps Dec. 19.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

You think they'd avoid the 27th-29th?

[Mr. Morden]

You think they'd avoid the 27th-29th?

Probably.  Everyone's on vacation that week.  Who's going to be paying attention to politics?

[BushKenya]

The thought of a primary just shortly after Thanksgiving is pretty mind-blowing.  If New Hampshire or Iowa goes early in December, that's what we're going to have.

[Yelnoc]

The thought of a primary just shortly after Thanksgiving is pretty mind-blowing.  If New Hampshire or Iowa goes early in December, that's what we're going to have.

And then we will have a space of a month before the primaries really start.  Assuming Romney does not sweep Iowa and New Hampshire, those results will likely be forgotten and South Carolina and New Hampshire will be viewed as the "real" first primaries. 

[BushKenya]

The thought of a primary just shortly after Thanksgiving is pretty mind-blowing.  If New Hampshire or Iowa goes early in December, that's what we're going to have.

And then we will have a space of a month before the primaries really start.  Assuming Romney does not sweep Iowa and New Hampshire, those results will likely be forgotten and South Carolina and New Hampshire will be viewed as the "real" first primaries. 

Remember that there is a 3-week gap in February, as well.  So, we're likely to get Iowa, then a 3-4 week break, followed by January with NH, NV, SC, FL, and the Feb 7 states, and then another 3 week gap before Feb 28 which is the week before Super Tuesday.  It's conceivable, though not near as likely that the results from January could be erased when we get to the Feb 28/March calendar time frame.  None of the states in January, save for Florida, have all that many delegates, so it's possible that a candidate that didn't do too well in January could come back strong in March and suprise a few folks.

[Mr. Morden]

Ballot Access News notes that the 2012 primary season will be the longest ever, and that the "median primary date" will be April 3, the latest it's been since 1992:

http://www.ballot-access.org/2011/10/09/2012-presidential-primary-season-likely-to-last-a-record-length-of-time/

[Tender Branson]

A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:



Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

[Mr. Morden]

I still say there's a non-negligible chance that NH goes before Iowa, and the media hasn't really caught onto this yet.

It's highly likely that next Sunday, the Iowa GOP will vote to hold their caucus on Jan. 3.  That's when we find out if Bill Gardner is bluffing.  If he's really serious about sticking with a Tuesday, going at least 7 days before Nevada and giving NH a week of its own that it doesn't share with other states, then we'll have a December New Hampshire primary.

Does Iowa then abandon Jan. 3, and jump up to December as well, to keep up with New Hampshire?  Possibly, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.  Sticking with Jan. 3, and letting NH go first would be a very real possibility.  In general, being the first primary/caucus state maximizes your influence.  But it's not clear that that would hold if you really move your primary or caucus up into December and the holiday season.  Any momentum one would get from a December primary could easily evaporate, as people are focused on the holidays.

I guess we'll find out soon enough....

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

I still say there's a non-negligible chance that NH goes before Iowa, and the media hasn't really caught onto this yet.

It's highly likely that next Sunday, the Iowa GOP will vote to hold their caucus on Jan. 3.  That's when we find out if Bill Gardner is bluffing.  If he's really serious about sticking with a Tuesday, going at least 7 days before Nevada and giving NH a week of its own that it doesn't share with other states, then we'll have a December New Hampshire primary.

Does Iowa then abandon Jan. 3, and jump up to December as well, to keep up with New Hampshire?  Possibly, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.  Sticking with Jan. 3, and letting NH go first would be a very real possibility.  In general, being the first primary/caucus state maximizes your influence.  But it's not clear that that would hold if you really move your primary or caucus up into December and the holiday season.  Any momentum one would get from a December primary could easily evaporate, as people are focused on the holidays.

I guess we'll find out soon enough....

Maybe they'd both go January 3.  But to clarify: Iowa is not locked in by the date they choose next Sunday, no?  They can move the caucus date after New Hampshire sets its date?

[Mr. Morden]

Maybe they'd both go January 3.  But to clarify: Iowa is not locked in by the date they choose next Sunday, no?  They can move the caucus date after New Hampshire sets its date?

Legally, they can move it again.  Practically......they can't wait forever.  At some point in the not too distant future, they really should start locking down sites to hold the caucuses, so they know they can pull this off without a hitch.  Though I imagine such a day of reckoning won't come until at least Nov. 1.

OTOH, the FHQ blog indicated that NH is so experienced with throwing together a primary at the last minute, that they could potentially do it all within a couple of weeks or something.  I think I had previously mentioned that the federal MOVE Act required them to set a date something like two months in advance, but apparently that's not an issue if they're willing to pay a fine for violating it.

[greenforest32]

A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:



Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

What's going on with Missouri?

[realisticidealist]

A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:



Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

What's going on with Missouri?

It has a primary and a caucus.

[greenforest32]

A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:



Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

What's going on with Missouri?

It has a primary and a caucus.

Why would they do that? Just so they can hold one earlier than the other and double dip?

[Tender Branson]

A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:



Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

What's going on with Missouri?

It has a primary and a caucus.

Why would they do that? Just so they can hold one earlier than the other and double dip?

So they can waste taxpayer money.

[cavalcade]

Maybe they'd both go January 3.  But to clarify: Iowa is not locked in by the date they choose next Sunday, no?  They can move the caucus date after New Hampshire sets its date?

I think I had previously mentioned that the federal MOVE Act required them to set a date something like two months in advance, but apparently that's not an issue if they're willing to pay a fine for violating it.

You're talking about a state that forgoes millions of dollars each year in federal transportation funding rather than require adults to wear a seatbelt.

[True Federalist]

A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:



Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

What's going on with Missouri?

It has a primary and a caucus.

Why would they do that? Just so they can hold one earlier than the other and double dip?

Nah.  The State GOP doesn't want to lose delegates by going too early, but the State legislature and the governor could never agree on a bill to move the primary date later, so the Missouri GOP won't use the primary results to select its delegates but instead a caucus to be held later.

[Mehmentum]

You think they'd avoid the 27th-29th?

Probably.  Everyone's on vacation that week.  Who's going to be paying attention to politics?

Us.

[BushKenya]

You think they'd avoid the 27th-29th?

Probably.  Everyone's on vacation that week.  Who's going to be paying attention to politics?

Us.

[ibarnes]

Maybe they'd both go January 3.  But to clarify: Iowa is not locked in by the date they choose next Sunday, no?  They can move the caucus date after New Hampshire sets its date?

I think I had previously mentioned that the federal MOVE Act required them to set a date something like two months in advance, but apparently that's not an issue if they're willing to pay a fine for violating it.

You're talking about a state that forgoes millions of dollars each year in federal transportation funding rather than require adults to wear a seatbelt.

We have a seatbelt law here. We forgo millions of dollars each year in federal transportation funding rather than require motorcyclists to wear helmets. But I understand lots of states do that now...

[Mr. Morden]

NH SoS Bill Gardner issues a memo in which the first nine paragraphs are about how the New Hampshire primary is awesome:

http://www.sos.nh.gov/Why%20New%20Hampshire%20is%20First%2010.12.11.pdf

The rest of the memo is a plea to Nevada to move its caucus to Jan. 17 or later, so that NH can schedule their primary for Jan. 10 and follow their law that requires a 7 day window before the next contest, while also honoring the state's tradition of voting on a Tuesday.

Gardner says that if Nevada doesn't agree to that, he'll consider scheduling NH for December 6 or 13.

EDIT: And Sandoval says thanks, but no thanks:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/new-hampshire-and-nevada-have-words-over-presidential-contests/2011/10/12/gIQAT8GMgL_blog.html

[Pilchard]

NEW HAMSHIRE IS FIRST FOR A REASON.

I like how at the beginning of the fifth paragraph he manages to spell the name of his state wrong in block capitals.

edit: aaw, it seems to have been corrected now

[BushKenya]

This means with the refusal of Nevada to move its caucus date to January 17.  New Hampshire will likely go December 6 or 13 which is just 7 1/2 - 8 1/2 weeks from now!! The candidates will be spending much of November, including Thanksgiving, almost exclusively in New Hampshire.

[Mehmentum]

This means with the refusal of Nevada to move its caucus date to January 17.  New Hampshire will likely go December 6 or 13 which is just 7 1/2 - 8 1/2 weeks from now!! The candidates will be spending much of November, including Thanksgiving, almost exclusively in New Hampshire.

As if this presidential race wasn't screwed up enough as it is.

Edit: Won't Iowa have to move its caucus to before NH?