The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Mr. Morden]

I don't think Gardner can go in December due to military absentee ballot rules.

Actually, he can:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/gardners-bluffing-but-it-has-nothing-to.html

Anyway, the Iowa GOP has now set their caucus date and time for January 3, at 7pm Central:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/18/us-iowa-caucus-republicans-idUSTRE79H0IC20111018

Legally, they could still move it again in response to whatever NH does, but it looks like they're probably not going to, barring extraordinary circumstances:

"One thing that I have received clear guidance from Iowa Republicans on over the last week and a half is the desire to make sure the caucuses are in 2012," Iowa Republican Party chairman Matt Strawn said in an interview.
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"Having a firm date of January 3 accomplishes some certainty not just for the voters, not just for the candidates, but really allows us to do all the organizational planning necessary to get over 1,700 precincts set up for caucus night," Strawn said.

So that leaves NH as the only state left that hasn't set their primary date.  Bill Gardner is still holding out hope that Nevada will change its mind, and move to a later date, which would then have NH going on Jan. 10.  But they're still at an impasse.  The Nevada GOP is meeting on Saturday, Oct. 22, and it's entirely possible that they'll fold, in order to placate crybaby Bill Gardner, and prevent the candidate boycott.  Josh Putnam says that he's betting that they will fold, and also quotes NV political journalist Jon Ralston as saying that he doesn't "get a sense of "steely resolve" from NVGOP chairwoman, Amy Tarkanian regarding the current caucus date."

OTOH, it looks like the Nevada Democratic Party is strongly considering moving their own caucus date to Jan. 14 as a show of solidarity with the state GOP on holding the line against NH.....so who really knows what's going to happen.

EDIT: Meanwhile, NBC announces a NH debate on Meet the Press, the Sunday before the NH primary, whenever that might be:

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20111016/NEWS0605/111019922

Will that debate be held on New Year's Day? 

[Mr. Morden]

In other news, the Missouri legislature tries yet again to deal with the primary that's currently scheduled for Feb. 7, and will award no delegates.  But they can't agree on the bill to cancel it, or to move it, so it looks like it's going to stay on Feb. 7, and award no delegates, while the delegates will be allocated based on the March caucuses:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/around-around-it-goes-in-missouri-where.html

[Mr. Morden]

It'll be interesting to see how the boycott is discussed at tonight's debate.  To what extent will the candidates defend their decision to boycott NV (or not)?  That might give us a clue as to how much pressure the Nevada GOP is under to change the caucus date.

[Mr. Morden]

So the boycott apparently wasn't covered at all in the debate.

Anyway, the Nevada Dems have moved their own caucus to Jan. 14, in solidarity with the Nevada GOP:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/timely-solidarity-nevada-democrats-join.html

Yet, it sounds more and more like Nevada is getting ready to fold.  Amy Tarkanian said "As of today, we are on the 14th", as if that could easily change.  Brian Sandoval is supposedly now getting pressure from Priebus to move later, and he sounds like he's ready to fold.

The Nevada GOP is meeting on Saturday, and if the date is going to change, they'll probably do it then.

[Lief]

What cowards. This is our chance to break New Hampshire's monopoly on the process once and for all they're throwing in the towel.

[Mr. Morden]

Rumor on Twitter is that Nevada GOP may be considering going all the way back to Feb. 4, which puts them just *after* Florida.  They would then get no delegate penalty.  Priebus may have given them some kind of assurance that they'll still get an early slot in 2016, though it's really impossible to guarantee that this far in advance.

All is rumor, but something official may come soon.

[True Federalist]

From The State

Four S.C. counties have filed a lawsuit challenging the state’s high-profile “first in the South” Republican presidential primary.

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If successful, the lawsuit would make it more difficult for state Republicans to hold their primary on Jan. 21, forcing the GOP to pay for it with private money.

I don't think the lawsuit will succeed or cause the GOP to shift the date.  It is of note is the counties who filed it: Beaufort, Chester, Greenville and Spartanburg. Three of them are GOP strongholds, so this is not a political lawsuit (in the sense of party politics that is).  This is more about yet another unfunded mandate on local governments coming from Columbia.

[Mr. Morden]

Reince Priebus appears to be urging Nevada to move to a later date.  Not because he favors NH over NV, but because he has no leverage over Bill Gardner in NH, so getting NV to move is the path of least resistance.  Here is a summary of what the Nevada GOP will apparently get if they move to Feb. 4:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/in-return-for-forfeiting-its-coveted.html

-a protected position in the pre-window period
-a promise of stronger future sanctions
-to keep first in the West status
-to keep a full slate of delegates for holding a rules-compliant contest
-a promise of high-level party surrogates to raise money in the state
-a date -- presumably February 4 -- all to themselves four days after the Florida primary and three days before non-binding caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota.
-no more headaches at the mere mention of Bill Gardner's name.
-no more pressure from the RNC, Iowa Republicans and New Hampshire's Republican leadership, elected officials and media outlets.

Whether this will be enough to satisfy the Nevada GOP or not, I don't know.  It looks like it probably will be, but they'll vote on it on Saturday.

In the meantime, it looks like the Ohio primary date is still uncertain.  The details are a bit complicated, but here's a summary:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-presidential-primary-date-back-up.html

In short, the redistricting battle for Congress is likely to drag on beyond the filing deadline for incumbent members of Congress in Ohio, which means that candidates would be filing their candidacy to run in districts that may or may not exist at the time of the election.  So the combined presidential-and-congressional primary might be moved back from its current Super Tuesday date to May or June.  This will be sorted out in the legislature (or not) in the near future.

[Mr. Morden]

Oh, and New Hampshire politicos have set up this ridiculous website to petition candidates to boycott Nevada if they don't change the caucus date:

http://boycottnevada.org/

[Yelnoc]

Oh, and New Hampshire politicos have set up this ridiculous website to petition candidates to boycott Nevada if they don't change the caucus date:

http://boycottnevada.org/

Web 1.0...

rofl

[Mr. Morden]

Every indication is that Nevada is going to move to Feb. 4 on Saturday, but we still have to wait and see to be sure.

Also, in Ohio, the state senate has passed a bill that would move the primary there to June 12:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-senate-passes-bill-creating.html

The extra time gives them more time to sort out the redistricting mess.

State with primary dates still in flux:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio

[BushKenya]

Every indication is that Nevada is going to move to Feb. 4 on Saturday, but we still have to wait and see to be sure.

Also, in Ohio, the state senate has passed a bill that would move the primary there to June 12:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-senate-passes-bill-creating.html

The extra time gives them more time to sort out the redistricting mess.

State with primary dates still in flux:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio

I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Every indication is that Nevada is going to move to Feb. 4 on Saturday, but we still have to wait and see to be sure.

Also, in Ohio, the state senate has passed a bill that would move the primary there to June 12:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-senate-passes-bill-creating.html

The extra time gives them more time to sort out the redistricting mess.

State with primary dates still in flux:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio

I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

South Carolina is January 21st so NH would look insane to move to the 17th after the whole NV fiasco.  What I don't understand is why Nevada doesn't move to January 17, 24 or 28 instead of letting Florida go first and potentially either clinch it for Romney or whittle it down to Romney and some candidate who has no shot in Nevada.

[BushKenya]

Every indication is that Nevada is going to move to Feb. 4 on Saturday, but we still have to wait and see to be sure.

Also, in Ohio, the state senate has passed a bill that would move the primary there to June 12:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-senate-passes-bill-creating.html

The extra time gives them more time to sort out the redistricting mess.

State with primary dates still in flux:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio

I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

South Carolina is January 21st so NH would look insane to move to the 17th after the whole NV fiasco.  What I don't understand is why Nevada doesn't move to January 17, 24 or 28 instead of letting Florida go first and potentially either clinch it for Romney or whittle it down to Romney and some candidate who has no shot in Nevada.

That's what I thought, and I agree with you on Nevada.  Nevada could be relegating itself to playing mop up duty by going February 4.  It will be kind of like when the backup quarterback comes in with 3 or 4 minutes to go with the game already out of reach in their favor.  The backup is playing mop up duty.

[Mr. Morden]

I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

The whole point of NH pressuring NV to move later was so that NH could go on Jan. 10, because they have the 7-day rule, and they want to go on a Tuesday.  How could they now ignore the 7-day rule, and go on the 17th?  That doesn't make any sense.

South Carolina is January 21st so NH would look insane to move to the 17th after the whole NV fiasco.  What I don't understand is why Nevada doesn't move to January 17, 24 or 28 instead of letting Florida go first and potentially either clinch it for Romney or whittle it down to Romney and some candidate who has no shot in Nevada.

They say that running the caucus on a weekday is too logistically difficult, because many of their caucus sites will be in use.  And if they're going to go later, they'd like to keep all their delegates.  By going in February, they can keep all their delegates.  Any caucus date in January means losing half their delegates.

[BushKenya]

I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

The whole point of NH pressuring NV to move later was so that NH could go on Jan. 10, because they have the 7-day rule, and they want to go on a Tuesday.  How could they now ignore the 7-day rule, and go on the 17th?  That doesn't make any sense.

That's what I thought.  I just wanted to make sure.

[Mr. Morden]

Assuming that Nevada moves to Feb. 4 and NH moves to Jan. 10 as expected, the early primary calendar will then look like this:

Tue, Jan. 3: IA caucus
Tue, Jan. 10: NH primary
Sat, Jan. 21: SC primary
Tue, Jan. 31: FL primary

Sat, Feb. 4: NV caucus
Sat, Feb. 4 - Sat, Feb. 11: ME caucus
Tue, Feb. 7: CO and MN caucuses
Tue, Feb. 28: AZ and MI primaries

Sat, Mar. 3: WA caucus
Tue, Mar. 6: Super Tuesday

Again, it'll be interesting to see if that three week gap in February means that any early momentum dies out and the campaign resets.  Granted, probably only about three candidates will still be in the race by then.

[BushKenya]

What do you think the importance of Super Tuesday will be?  Will the nominee largely be decided then, or with the three week gap in February be enough to make March 6 a huge day?  I do agree that we'll likely be down to 3, maybe 4, candidates by the end of February, so that could possibly give the winner a larger slice of the delegate pie.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The 11-day gap between NH and SC will also be VERY interesting. Especially if we take under consideration the latter's reputation for dirty campaigning.

[cavalcade]

Assuming that Nevada moves to Feb. 4 and NH moves to Jan. 10 as expected, the early primary calendar will then look like this:

Tue, Jan. 3: IA caucus
Tue, Jan. 10: NH primary
Sat, Jan. 21: SC primary
Tue, Jan. 31: FL primary

Sat, Feb. 4: NV caucus
Sat, Feb. 4 - Sat, Feb. 11: ME caucus
Tue, Feb. 7: CO and MN caucuses
Tue, Feb. 28: AZ and MI primaries

Sat, Mar. 3: WA caucus
Tue, Mar. 6: Super Tuesday

I would rather see NV and FL switched, and obviously everything shifted back a couple weeks, but this would be a pretty good calendar considering the crazy alternatives that have been made possible.

[BushKenya]

February 4 it is for Nevada, according to Politico.

[Mr. Morden]

Nevada GOP moves caucuses to Feb. 4:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/22/nevada-g-o-p-relents-on-early-primary/

and Ohio moves its primary to June 12:

http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/ohio-news/ohio-house-agrees-to-push-presidential-primary-1272473.html

thereby making Super Tuesday even more heavily Southern.  I've updated the calendar in the OP.

The only state left to declare their date is New Hampshire, but there's a ~99% chance that they'll be on Jan. 10.

[BushKenya]

Nevada GOP moves caucuses to Feb. 4:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/22/nevada-g-o-p-relents-on-early-primary/

and Ohio moves its primary to June 12:

http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/ohio-news/ohio-house-agrees-to-push-presidential-primary-1272473.html

thereby making Super Tuesday even more heavily Southern.  I've updated the calendar in the OP.

The only state left to declare their date is New Hampshire, but there's a ~99% chance that they'll be on Jan. 10.

I like this calendar better than I do having New Hampshire in early-mid December.  Having one that early when the rest are not until January, February, and March seems like a waste of a primary to me.  Plus, it would have been very sad to see New Hampshire campaigning over the Thanksgiving Holiday.  We're used to Christmas/New Years campaigning in Iowa thanks to the 2008 cycle, but Thanksgiving is just way too early, and again, a waste of a good primary day.

[Chris B]

The move can't help Romney. If only since he wont have as much momentum going into Florida with only a win in NH, unless he can pull it off in Iowa and/or SC.

[cavalcade]

Nevada GOP moves caucuses to Feb. 4:

Don't mess with New Hampshire.