The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Fred Karger says that if Florida doesn't move its primary to a later date, he'll boycott Florida orange juice:

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20111025/LOCALVOICES/710259991

"If by Tuesday, Nov. 1, Florida has not agreed to move its primary back to its original date in March 2012, I will officially launch a nationwide boycott of Florida orange juice. We own the domain name www.BoycottFloridaOrangeJuice.com, have begun developing this web site and have the ticking orange on our logo."

There is actually no mechanism for Florida to change its primary date again even if it wanted to, as the legislature isn't going to meet in time for it to happen.  So I guess Karger is going to boycott Florida orange juice.

Meanwhile, it looks like Florida is not only going earlier than the RNC rules call for, but they'll stick with a statewide WTA allocation of their delegates, which also violates RNC rules:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-presidential-campaigns-in-florida-20111024,0,1721196.story

But the RNC is not going to give them any additional punishment, because there actually is no provision in the RNC rules for penalty harsher than the 50% delegate penalty that they're already getting.  Arizona may also end up sticking with its statewide WTA rule, since it's also going to lose half its delegates for going early anyway.

It's unclear if this means that the RNC won't enforce the proportionality rules at all, or if this is just a loophole for the states that are already losing half their delegates for going early.  For many states, it might actually be worth it to take a 50% delegate penalty in exchange for doing statewide WTA.  Unclear how many will do this.

[Yelnoc]

Your loss, Karger.

[A-Bob]

Your loss, Karger.

^

If anyone took him seriously they should see how screwed up he is. Why would he strive to destroy an economy to punish a political party picking a date for their state?

lol

[Mr. Morden]

I swear, if I hear "Florida single-handedly screwed up the primary calendar" one more time, I'm going to scream.

Look, if Florida had gone with a much later date, then Iowa would have gone just one week later, or *possibly* two weeks later than its currently scheduled January 3.  That's it.  Not a month later.  Iowa in February was never going to happen, because several other states were already going to be in February anyway, and IA/NH/NV/SC were going to jump them.  Colorado and Minnesota caucuses on Feb. 7 means that the primaries were inevitably going to start in the first half of January.

[BushKenya]

When is New Hampshire supposed to decide on a date, thus completing the calendar?

[Mr. Morden]

From a couple of days ago:

http://twitter.com/#!/JamesPindell/status/128862520931909632

Release: Gardner will announce the date of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary next week after the filing period has ended.

[BushKenya]

From a couple of days ago:

http://twitter.com/#!/JamesPindell/status/128862520931909632

Release: Gardner will announce the date of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary next week after the filing period has ended.

Okay, that's what I thought, I just know how loosely a time frame can be kept.

[Mr. Morden]

Gardner will apparently set the NH primary date on Wednesday morning:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/gardner-to-set-new-hampshire-primary.html

[BushKenya]

According to the article you posted, it looks like January 10 will indeed be chosen for the first-in-the-nation primary.  This puts the nominating season starting in just 9 weeks from today with the Iowa Caucuses on Tuesday, January 3, 2012.

[BushKenya]

According to the Associated Press, Gardner has officially set the New Hampshire primary for Tuesday, January 10, 2012.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/02/breaking-new-hampshire-primary-date-set/

[Mr. Morden]

NH to Jan. 10.  The calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Yelnoc]

Gentlemen, your work here is completed!

[BushKenya]

We can officially begin the countdown to the nominating season!! Iowa is just 2 months from tomorrow.

[Mr. Morden]

It's not necessarily over.  There's still talk of possible primary date moves in both Massachusetts and Ohio:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/in-massachusetts-talk-of-primary.html

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/11/ohio-presidential-primary-back-to-march.html

But the pre-Super Tuesday calendar seems to be set.  I'll also add the dates for US territories when I get a chance.

[BushKenya]

It's not necessarily over.  There's still talk of possible primary date moves in both Massachusetts and Ohio:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/in-massachusetts-talk-of-primary.html

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/11/ohio-presidential-primary-back-to-march.html

But the pre-Super Tuesday calendar seems to be set.  I'll also add the dates for US territories when I get a chance.

Ohio and Massachusetts are really immaterial right now.  We've got a half dozen states or more before Super Tuesday.  January looks like a fun month before a 3-week February break.

[Governor NVGonzalez]

I though Ohio had already decided March 6.

[realisticidealist]

I though Ohio had already decided March 6.

They've since changed it to June to align with the other statewide primaries and to give them time to pass the map for the new districts.

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

The debate line-ups are getting boring. When is someone going to drop out?

[True Federalist]

The debate line-ups are getting boring. When is someone going to drop out?

At this point, not until after Iowa at the earliest, and probably not until after New Hampshire.

[Senator Snowstalker]

...and magic makes it all complete!

[BushKenya]

52 days until Iowa - 51 if you don't count today.

[King]

Bushie, please stop keeping track when January 3rd is.

[realisticidealist]

It's only 9 days after Christmas. He could countdown to that instead.

[True Federalist]

It's still too soon to say the calendar is set in stone.  The case concerning how the South Carolina primary is to be paid for (and by whom) was heard at our Supreme Court yesterday.  Chief Justice Toal was skeptical of the counties' claims, but Associate Justice Beatty was appreciative. While I think the plaintiffs will be unsuccessful, if the GOP has to conduct the primary itself and use paper ballots, then it is possible that the primary could be delayed since the change requires DOJ clearance.


article in The State

Chief Justice Toal

Associate Justice Beatty

[Mr. Morden]

I've mentioned before that the new RNC rules imposing PR on the early states are really imposing "faux-PR".  It's not really proportional.  But it is clearly meant to be something other than pure statewide WTA.

But I've also mentioned how it's not clear whether the RNC is really going to enforce that rule or not.  This op/ed in Politico asks whether the RNC is actually going to enforce that rule at all:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/69048.html

And in fact, it questions whether the RNC rules even allow for them to enforce the rule.  Have they made a rule that without an enforcement mechanism for breaking it?

The op/ed gets a few details wrong, but if I'm reading the situation correctly, it sounds like a slew of states that either use WTA or open primaries may end up facing credentials challenges at the convention, *if* anyone there actually tried to challenge them (which probably won't happen).  Or perhaps they can become delegates, but they're technically "unpledged", and don't really have to vote for the candidate who won their primary (though they presumably would vote for the presumptive nominee, assuming there is a presumptive nominee).

Bottom line, this may mean nothing if, like every other presidential primary contest for the last 30+ years, there is a presumptive nominee at the end of the primary voting process.  But in the unlikely event that there's a brokered convention scenario, then the RNC may have invited legal armageddon over its attempt to revise its delegate selection rules without more clearly delineating the enforcement mechanism.