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Author Topic: The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread  (Read 32900 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #425 on: December 09, 2011, 04:34:44 am »

Added Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, and Virgin Islands caucuses to the calendar (all in March).  I don't know when Northern Mariana votes.

Also, remarkably, Ohio might move its presidential primary yet again.  This time, perhaps to April 24, to coincide with NY, PA, and other contiguous states:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/12/dont-necessarily-get-to-used-to-idea-of.html

Not clear that anything will get decided on that until next month, which would mark a rare time when the primaries have already started while a state in the later part of the calendar is moving its date around.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #426 on: December 09, 2011, 04:41:17 am »

If any of you are still dreaming of a late entry into the race, here's a list of the filing deadlines:


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« Reply #427 on: December 09, 2011, 10:46:51 pm »
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The biggest prize on Super Tuesday may be delayed.  Texas had scheduled the presidential primary for the same day as other state primaries but with the Supreme Court staying the Congressional and state legislative redistricting maps it looks certain that those primaries will be postponed. Will Texas hold 2 primaries or will they postpone the presidential primary to?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #428 on: December 09, 2011, 11:02:59 pm »

The biggest prize on Super Tuesday may be delayed.  Texas had scheduled the presidential primary for the same day as other state primaries but with the Supreme Court staying the Congressional and state legislative redistricting maps it looks certain that those primaries will be postponed. Will Texas hold 2 primaries or will they postpone the presidential primary to?

Yeah, I just read about that.  This story suggests that the congressional and legislative primaries will be delayed until May:

http://www.chron.com/news/local_news/article/Supreme-Court-temporarily-blocks-interim-2393236.php

though perhaps other primaries will remain in March.  But the presidential primary delegate allocation is largely based on the results in congressional districts, so it's unclear how this is going to work if there are no congressional districts in place at the time of the primary.

Oh, and if Texas does move later, then Gingrich's home state of Georgia will be the biggest remaining delegate prize on Super Tuesday.
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« Reply #429 on: December 09, 2011, 11:10:12 pm »

Maybe Texas should actually move to June 5th, and join CA, MT, NJ, NM, and SD.  That would actually make June 5th the new Super Tuesday, as it would supplant March 6th as the day when the most delegates are decided, and the most people vote.
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« Reply #430 on: December 09, 2011, 11:18:31 pm »
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Maybe Texas should actually move to June 5th, and join CA, MT, NJ, NM, and SD.  That would actually make June 5th the new Super Tuesday, as it would supplant March 6th as the day when the most delegates are decided, and the most people vote.


The way the schedule is shaping up I think it could lead to a long drawn out primary fight. There will be a lot of delegates available in April, May and June, many in winner take all states (either by state or CD).  There will be plenty of chances for a candidate who falls behind early in the process to catch up.
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« Reply #431 on: December 10, 2011, 07:35:58 am »
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As it stands right now, and this is a bit suprising given our competition, but Oklahoma is the 5th biggest prize on the current Super Tuesday, March 6.  We even beat out bigger states such as Massachusetts.  I believe the only states that are bigger prizes than the Sooner State are Texas, Georgia, Virginia, and Tennessee.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #432 on: December 10, 2011, 04:33:38 pm »

This article suggests that the new date being eyed for Texas's primary is May 22:

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/supreme-court-freezes-texas-elections/

But it also suggests that that might just be for congressional and legislative primaries, while the presidential and senate primaries remain in March.  But as I said yesterday, about 2/3rds of Texas's delegates to the RNC are allocated at the congressional district level.  So how are you going to have a presidential primary without knowing what the congressional district boundaries are?

Granted, the Texas GOP could simply change the state's delegate allocation rules so that it's 100% based on the statewide result.  But you'd still be left with the question of whether the state actually wants to pay for two primaries.
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« Reply #433 on: December 12, 2011, 09:17:29 pm »
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This article suggests that the new date being eyed for Texas's primary is May 22:

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/supreme-court-freezes-texas-elections/

But it also suggests that that might just be for congressional and legislative primaries, while the presidential and senate primaries remain in March.  But as I said yesterday, about 2/3rds of Texas's delegates to the RNC are allocated at the congressional district level.  So how are you going to have a presidential primary without knowing what the congressional district boundaries are?

Granted, the Texas GOP could simply change the state's delegate allocation rules so that it's 100% based on the statewide result.  But you'd still be left with the question of whether the state actually wants to pay for two primaries.


It looks Like the TX Republican party already had changed their delegate allocation rules to a proportional system based on the statewide vote.

http://blogs.star-telegram.com/politex/2011/10/texas-republican-party-changes-primary-plan-to-comply-with-rnc-hopes-it-was-worth-it.html
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« Reply #434 on: December 14, 2011, 01:50:55 am »

Yes, apparently the Texas GOP wants to keep the presidential primary in March, even if legislative primaries are delayed until May.  However, local election officials don't want to have to do two separate primaries.  A federal judge will probably decide this within the next few days.

Meanwhile, a bill's been introduced in the Ohio legislature to move its primary up to May:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/12/bill-introduced-in-ohio-house-to-create.html

So we're three weeks away from Iowa, and two of the biggest delegate prizes (Texas and Ohio) still haven't definitively sorted out when they're going to hold their primaries.
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« Reply #435 on: December 14, 2011, 05:15:14 pm »

What the heck is going on in Ohio?  The primary had previously been scheduled for March 6 (Super Tuesday).  Then the legislature delayed it until June, because the thinking was that redistricting wouldn't be done in time.  Now it looks like the two parties have struck some kind of deal on redistricting, that will also bring the primary forward back to March 6:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/12/14/dems-gop-decide-on-single-march-primary-in-2012.html

But according to FHQ on Twitter, the current version of the legislation being considered would make the presidential primary filing deadline revert to Dec. 7 (which we've already passed):

http://twitter.com/#!/FHQ/status/147049224469614592

Only Gingrich, Perry, and Romney are already on the Ohio ballot.  The rest of the candidates haven't filed yet, because they were assuming that there was indeed going to be a June primary with the later deadline, so there was no rush to file now.  If this passes in its current form, then Bachmann, Huntsman, Paul, Santorum, Johnson, Roemer, etc. would all have to run as write-in candidates.

Surely, they'll fix this before voting on this legislation, right?  Or does anyone want to offer any conspiracy theories about depriving Paul of delegates?
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« Reply #436 on: December 14, 2011, 06:28:02 pm »

On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.
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« Reply #437 on: December 16, 2011, 03:49:34 am »
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On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.

The bill that passed, HB 369 set new congressional districts, and combined the primary on March 6.   For all offices that had been scheduled for March 6, the filing deadline was left at December 7.

For congress, and president, and president delegates, a December 30 deadline was set; and any previous filings are discarded.

In Ohio, delegates are actually elected in the primary, and the election is done by congressional district.  When a delegate candidate files, he lists the name of his favored two presidential candidates (with their permission), and then the candidate ranks all the delegates who favored him.  So when delegates are apportioned by presidential candidate, there is a list of delegates that these are picked off of.

I assume in practice, the presidential candidates pick their delegates and help them get their signatures to get on the ballot. Since delegates (and indirectly presidential candidates) quality by congressional district, a presidential candidate might not be on the ballot statewide.  I think Gingrich had failed to qualify statewide, and this was cited as a failure of his organization, but now he can fix that.
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« Reply #438 on: December 16, 2011, 02:05:58 pm »
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This article suggests that the new date being eyed for Texas's primary is May 22:

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/supreme-court-freezes-texas-elections/

But it also suggests that that might just be for congressional and legislative primaries, while the presidential and senate primaries remain in March.  But as I said yesterday, about 2/3rds of Texas's delegates to the RNC are allocated at the congressional district level.  So how are you going to have a presidential primary without knowing what the congressional district boundaries are?

Granted, the Texas GOP could simply change the state's delegate allocation rules so that it's 100% based on the statewide result.  But you'd still be left with the question of whether the state actually wants to pay for two primaries.

Texas law does not specify how delegates are selected.  It requires that 75% of delegates be chosen "based" on the primary results ("based on" includes winner take all).  Democrats use senatorial districts; Republicans use congressional districts, but in both cases, it is simply a matter of which election precincts are tabulated.  There are no delegates actually selected in the primary, the selection in June is based on the March results.
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« Reply #439 on: December 16, 2011, 08:13:51 pm »
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Texas = April 3, IF there are congressional and legislative districts before February 1st.
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« Reply #440 on: December 16, 2011, 09:15:33 pm »
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On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.


this is the version I hear is most likely to occur. A May primary was traditional until recent elections, and no one wants to spend on two primary elections so long as a redistricting deal is reached.
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« Reply #441 on: December 17, 2011, 02:18:59 am »
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On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.


this is the version I hear is most likely to occur. A May primary was traditional until recent elections, and no one wants to spend on two primary elections so long as a redistricting deal is reached.

That article is like so December 14th.  You've got to move into the modern era.

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/15/ohio-governor-signs-march-6-primary-date-law-ar-865288/
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #442 on: December 17, 2011, 10:56:40 am »

On the other hand, this article says Ohio is still headed towards a unified primary in May:

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/14/swing-state-ohio-set-2012-primary-may-ar-863464/

Still confused about what's actually going on.


this is the version I hear is most likely to occur. A May primary was traditional until recent elections, and no one wants to spend on two primary elections so long as a redistricting deal is reached.

That article is like so December 14th.  You've got to move into the modern era.

http://www2.ohiovotes2011.com/news/2011/dec/15/ohio-governor-signs-march-6-primary-date-law-ar-865288/

Correct, Kasich has signed the bill to move the Ohio primary to March 6, and the courts have OK'ed the deal between the two parties in Texas to move the Texas primary to April 3:

http://www.chron.com/news/local_news/article/Republicans-Democrats-cut-deal-on-primary-date-2408283.php

I've updated the calendar in the OP.  I guess we'll have to wait and see whether the primary calendar is now "done", or if there's going to be any other movement.

Also, Georgia is now the biggest delegate prize on Super Tuesday, though Ohio is the Super Tuesday state with the largest population.  Georgia has more delegates, because the RNC rewards states based on "party strength".  That is, states that are more Republican will get more delegates.
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« Reply #443 on: December 17, 2011, 11:20:56 am »
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Mr. Morden:

The Northern Marianas Commonwealth Convention on Feb. 25 is missing in your calendar.
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« Reply #444 on: December 19, 2011, 10:47:23 am »
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Everyday I'm shuffling.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #445 on: December 23, 2011, 12:02:14 pm »

Mr. Morden:

The Northern Marianas Commonwealth Convention on Feb. 25 is missing in your calendar.

The Green Papers lists that date for Northern Marianas, but the note they attach basically says "We don't know when this is going to be, but our default assumption is that it'll be the same time as last year."  Is there some other definitive source that lists the Feb. 25 date?  Just want to double check on that.
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« Reply #446 on: January 13, 2012, 02:22:58 pm »

Should I un-sticky this?  We're basically done with the calendar.  Nothing's happened in the last few weeks.

When I started this, the primary calendar was hard to find, but now it's posted all over the place, including Wikipedia.  Or is it really convenient to have the primary calendar handy like this?  I guess I could always ask Erc to post a copy of the calendar in the first post of his delegate counting thread?
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« Reply #447 on: January 14, 2012, 10:08:57 pm »
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It's handy for me, so I say keep it stickied, at least through Florida.  Just another two weeks (+ change).
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« Reply #448 on: January 17, 2012, 09:48:27 pm »
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Apparently the Louisiana caucus was moved back to April 28. Sad Sad Jindal apparently wants a spot in the Romney administration.

http://www.theind.com/news/9739-la-gop-sets-april-caucus
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« Reply #449 on: January 18, 2012, 09:54:13 am »
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I vote to keep it up for several months longer, maybe through the conventions.  I would also add to the OP the Convention Dates and Sites, the beginning of Mail-in balloting for the states that vote by mail, Election Day, and Inauguaration Day (not that political junkies don't know the last two dates, but just to complete the cycle).  You might change the name to 2012 Presidential Election Calendar, instead of just focusing solely on the Primaries.

I use the OP quite a bit to figure out which primary comes at what date and I would use it also for planning for the dates listed above.
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