The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Joe Biden 2020]

Morden, do you think it's more likely to have IA, NH, SC, and NV in January or February?  According to your calendar on the OP, I suspect January, am I correct in the assumption?  When do you think we'll know for sure on especially Iowa and New Hampshire since they traditionally the first two states?  IIRC, wasn't it pretty late in 2007 when January 3, 2008 was set as the Iowa Caucus date?

[Joe Biden 2020]

The Arizona primary is scheduled for Feb. 28, but state law allows Gov. Jan Brewer to unilaterally set it earlier than that if she wants, and she's allowed to go as early as she likes, as long as she announces the date at least 150 days in advance.  Well, we now have this:

http://www.ahwatukee.com/news/valley_and_state/article_306e0c1b-229e-5d92-b81f-1e14c78c2c82.html

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If she moves it to Jan. 31, then my guess is that Florida moves to Jan. 24, and you get a domino effect, where the calendar starts out like this:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 AZ

Or something like that.  Georgia and Michigan might go for late January as well.  Or maybe if enough of the remaining February states move later, they'll figure that there's a void in February that they can fill, and just hold their primaries in Feb.

Because Brewer has to announce this 150 days in advance, if she wants to go for Jan. 31, she'll have to announce it by early September.   Most of the potential early primary states seem headed for some kind of decision time in August or September, so we may actually have a good idea of what the primary calendar looks like on October 1.

January 5 Iowa would be awesome!! Everyone knows I am a fan of a long, drawn out primary campaign such as we had in 2008 that lasted 5 1/2 months between the January 3 Iowa Caucuses and the late-June coronation of Barack Obama as the Democratic Nominee.  That was a fun winter and spring for me!!  I hope we can have the same fight and tussle with the Republicans this next year!

[Joe Biden 2020]

Move it! Move it! Move it NJ! Let me vote in my primary!

Are you guys in NJ really not allowed to vote in the primary until you turn 18? I think in Ohio we're allowed to vote in the primary as long we will be 18 by the general election.

Really?

I think that's the same way in Oklahoma.

[Joe Biden 2020]

At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.

Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

[Joe Biden 2020]

At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.

Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

It's still absolutely possible.  If Arizona moves to Feb. 7th, or if Missouri sticks with Feb. 7th because they can't get the new primary bill through the legislature or something, then you could have:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 31 FL
Feb. other states, like AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc.
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

Depends on any number of things, like how much space SC thinks it needs before Florida, whether Georgia tries to go really early or not, etc.

What I think is off the table though is Iowa voting in December.  Hard to see how that's going to happen now.

What if Brewer moves Arizona to January 31 and then both Florida and Georgia determine they want to go before Arizona?

That's highly unlikely to happen as Gov. Brewer nixed the idea of January 31. Now, she still could go earlier in February if she wants.  It remains to be seen what the Madame Governor will do.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Make them all as late as possible...

That's not as fun for us political junkies, plus that would eliminate 10 1/4 straight months of elections!!

[Joe Biden 2020]

I know we've been over this, but when do you expect a firm date for the early states including Iowa and New Hampshire.  Thus, when do you expect a final, firm, set-in-stone calendar?

[Joe Biden 2020]

I hope we get a definitive calendar soon.  I want to start planning my primary nights election coverage.

[Joe Biden 2020]

As previously mentioned, as of yesterday it looked like the Nevada GOP was leaning towards scheduling their caucus in February, after Florida.  But tonight, the party voted to keep their current scheduling rule intact, which tethers the caucus date to the date of the NH primary:

http://www.rgj.com/article/20111001/NEWS19/110010335/Nevada-GOP-votes-move-presidential-caucus-January?odyssey=nav%7Chead

They plan to hold the caucus on the Saturday after the NH primary.  This sets up a confrontation with NH, as NH 1) historically votes on a Tuesday, and 2) has a state law that requires them to vote at least seven days before any other primary or caucus (except Iowa).

So something has to give.  Either NH has to vote on a Saturday, or they have to allow NV to vote just four days after them, or NV has to give up on going on the Saturday after NH.

Once we know how that is resolved, we'll know what the calendar looks like.

NH shouldn't act like a pussy, as everyone knows that they are much more important than NV.

I would suggest Jan. 10 for Iowa, Jan. 17 for NH, Jan. 21 for NV (Saturday) and Jan. 24 for SC.

That wouldn't bode too well for SC in my opinion with Florida right behind them at January 31.  I would move the earlier states up to put Iowa on January 3, New Hampshire on on January 10, Nevada on January 14, and South Carolina on January 24.  The reason for this is, if Nevada is going to tether themselves to New Hampshire, they obviously don't need or even care about having time for the candidates to shift out west and have several days to campaign in that state alone.  South Carolina has not made any such demands, to my knowledge, and therefore still should get at least a week where candidates can focus on the Palmetto State before transitioning two states to the south to Florida.

I know this puts Iowa campaigning early in December, but they are going to do that anyway, and in the political world, that's not as critical as giving the early states time to have the candidates all to themselves.

[Joe Biden 2020]

As much as I love early and long, drawn out primary seasons, I don't want any contest in December.  I don't want any political contest interfering with my Christmas or New Year's celebrations.  I hope New Hampshire gives up the idea of a Tuesday, and goes January 7, or at least gives up the idea of a week long gap before the next contest and goes January 10.  Iowa on January 3 is exactly what we had in 2008.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm pleased with January 3 for Iowa.  Hopefully, NH will get the hint and keep it either January 7 or 10.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The thought of a primary just shortly after Thanksgiving is pretty mind-blowing.  If New Hampshire or Iowa goes early in December, that's what we're going to have.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The thought of a primary just shortly after Thanksgiving is pretty mind-blowing.  If New Hampshire or Iowa goes early in December, that's what we're going to have.

And then we will have a space of a month before the primaries really start.  Assuming Romney does not sweep Iowa and New Hampshire, those results will likely be forgotten and South Carolina and New Hampshire will be viewed as the "real" first primaries. 

Remember that there is a 3-week gap in February, as well.  So, we're likely to get Iowa, then a 3-4 week break, followed by January with NH, NV, SC, FL, and the Feb 7 states, and then another 3 week gap before Feb 28 which is the week before Super Tuesday.  It's conceivable, though not near as likely that the results from January could be erased when we get to the Feb 28/March calendar time frame.  None of the states in January, save for Florida, have all that many delegates, so it's possible that a candidate that didn't do too well in January could come back strong in March and suprise a few folks.

[Joe Biden 2020]

You think they'd avoid the 27th-29th?

Probably.  Everyone's on vacation that week.  Who's going to be paying attention to politics?

Us.

[Joe Biden 2020]

This means with the refusal of Nevada to move its caucus date to January 17.  New Hampshire will likely go December 6 or 13 which is just 7 1/2 - 8 1/2 weeks from now!! The candidates will be spending much of November, including Thanksgiving, almost exclusively in New Hampshire.

[Joe Biden 2020]

This means with the refusal of Nevada to move its caucus date to January 17.  New Hampshire will likely go December 6 or 13 which is just 7 1/2 - 8 1/2 weeks from now!! The candidates will be spending much of November, including Thanksgiving, almost exclusively in New Hampshire.

As if this presidential race wasn't screwed up enough as it is.

Edit: Won't Iowa have to move its caucus to before NH?

That would mean a November Iowa Caucus

[Joe Biden 2020]

Is there still a meeting scheduled for Sunday to determine the dates for Iowa and New Hampshire?  What time is that meeting scheduled for?  A third question, will we have a definite calendar with Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada by the time we wake up Monday morning or will this linger for a couple more weeks closer to Halloween?

[Joe Biden 2020]

but then wouldnt NH jump back into January once IA jumped out?

Maybe, but not necessarily.  The whole thing's rather unclear.  Like I said a few posts ago, Jan. 3 would be logistically difficult for Manchester (NH's largest city).  But then, December is logistically difficult as well.

If NH does go for December, will Iowa follow them into December to maintain their first in the nation status?  No one really knows:

http://ames.patch.com/articles/iowans-split-on-leapfrogging-election-contestssome-iowans-shrug-off-possible-2011-contests-and-say-keep-caucus-in-january

If New Hampshire sets it's date for December 6th, and Iowa still wants to go first, then wouldn't Iowa have to be held in November?

I doubt Gardner is serious about Dec. 6.  If he goes with December, it'll probably be mid-December.

He could go with December 13 or even 20 as the latter is still the week before Christmas Day.  Really, the only Tuesday that is off the table is probably December 27 as that is Christmas/New Years vacation week.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Every indication is that Nevada is going to move to Feb. 4 on Saturday, but we still have to wait and see to be sure.

Also, in Ohio, the state senate has passed a bill that would move the primary there to June 12:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-senate-passes-bill-creating.html

The extra time gives them more time to sort out the redistricting mess.

State with primary dates still in flux:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio

I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Every indication is that Nevada is going to move to Feb. 4 on Saturday, but we still have to wait and see to be sure.

Also, in Ohio, the state senate has passed a bill that would move the primary there to June 12:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/10/ohio-senate-passes-bill-creating.html

The extra time gives them more time to sort out the redistricting mess.

State with primary dates still in flux:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio

I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

South Carolina is January 21st so NH would look insane to move to the 17th after the whole NV fiasco.  What I don't understand is why Nevada doesn't move to January 17, 24 or 28 instead of letting Florida go first and potentially either clinch it for Romney or whittle it down to Romney and some candidate who has no shot in Nevada.

That's what I thought, and I agree with you on Nevada.  Nevada could be relegating itself to playing mop up duty by going February 4.  It will be kind of like when the backup quarterback comes in with 3 or 4 minutes to go with the game already out of reach in their favor.  The backup is playing mop up duty.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I know you've probably mentioned this before, but if Nevada goes go back to February 4 do you think New Hampshire would then fill in the January 10 slot, because of the 7-day rule, or would they ignore that rule and go to January 17 with Iowa possibly moving back to January 10?

The whole point of NH pressuring NV to move later was so that NH could go on Jan. 10, because they have the 7-day rule, and they want to go on a Tuesday.  How could they now ignore the 7-day rule, and go on the 17th?  That doesn't make any sense.

That's what I thought.  I just wanted to make sure.

[Joe Biden 2020]

What do you think the importance of Super Tuesday will be?  Will the nominee largely be decided then, or with the three week gap in February be enough to make March 6 a huge day?  I do agree that we'll likely be down to 3, maybe 4, candidates by the end of February, so that could possibly give the winner a larger slice of the delegate pie.

[Joe Biden 2020]

February 4 it is for Nevada, according to Politico.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Nevada GOP moves caucuses to Feb. 4:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/22/nevada-g-o-p-relents-on-early-primary/

and Ohio moves its primary to June 12:

http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/ohio-news/ohio-house-agrees-to-push-presidential-primary-1272473.html

thereby making Super Tuesday even more heavily Southern.  I've updated the calendar in the OP.

The only state left to declare their date is New Hampshire, but there's a ~99% chance that they'll be on Jan. 10.

I like this calendar better than I do having New Hampshire in early-mid December.  Having one that early when the rest are not until January, February, and March seems like a waste of a primary to me.  Plus, it would have been very sad to see New Hampshire campaigning over the Thanksgiving Holiday.  We're used to Christmas/New Years campaigning in Iowa thanks to the 2008 cycle, but Thanksgiving is just way too early, and again, a waste of a good primary day.

[Joe Biden 2020]

When is New Hampshire supposed to decide on a date, thus completing the calendar?