The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Tender Branson]

I support Karen Floyd on this.

It would be better if Florida moves to Super Tuesday instead.

[Tender Branson]

It looks like Super Tuesday so far benefits Mitt Romney the most, with many Obama states in the North East, making it harder for a more conservative Republican to win there.

[Tender Branson]

Mr. Morden, do you know until which date each state has to set it's primary/caucus date, so that the calendar is finalized ?

[Tender Branson]

New York has now moved to April 24:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/cuomo-signs-bill-moving-new-york.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.  Also, the California legislature has passed a bill moving the state's primary to June 5th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/07/california-senate-passes-june.html

but it's not official until Brown signs it.

Feb. 7th is dead as Super Tuesday.  March 6th is the new Super Tuesday.  Though it's an extremely weak Super Tuesday, as there are only 7 states voting that day.  (Though a couple more will probably end up joining.)  But yes, March 6th is the date that'll have the most delegates at stake.  If both California and New Jersey move to June 5th as expected, then June 5th will probably be the date with the second most delegates at stake.

Very bad for Mitt if they move back.

BTW, Mr. Morden, check your PMs and tell me what you think about it.

[Tender Branson]

Arizona update:

Ms. Brewer’s spokesman told The Boston Globe on Monday that the governor “continues to lean toward Jan. 31.”

But he also said that there were other options, too. The governor might decide not to risk the ire of the Republican party schedulers and instead hold a debate in the state in January. That way, the state could feel like it has influence on the course of the nomination primary.

“A debate would be one way to really shine the light on Arizona issues, such as illegal immigration and border issues,” Matthew Benson, Ms. Brewer’s spokesman, told The Globe.

Will that be enough for Ms. Brewer and the other Arizona boosters? We should know by Saturday.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/will-arizona-scramble-the-republican-primary-calendar

[Tender Branson]

And finally, it looks like Michigan has dropped the idea of moving the primary later than Feb. 28.  They'll keep it on Feb. 28, but the legislature is working on a bill that would change the primary from open to closed:

Bad news for Romney I guess, because Independents would certainly "fatten up" Romney's margin over Perry in MI. But if it's only Republicans, it's more uncertain, especially after SC.

[Tender Branson]

Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?

[Tender Branson]

Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?

IA, NH, NV, SC, and GA will probably not have finalized things by Oct. 1, but every other state basically will have.  The only other states that might still be in limbo are states like NJ and WI, where the legislature has passed a bill, but the governor has neither signed nor vetoed it yet.

I expect that GA will be announced some time shortly after Oct. 1, and the other four states shortly after that.  The only thing might gum up the works is if NJ continues to remain in limbo like this.  Why won't Christie just sign the freaking bill?

Will GA, NJ and WI get punished by the RNC if they decide their date after Oct. 1 ?

And what are the states that will already get punished in some way by the RNC ?

[Tender Branson]

More good news for Romney.

[Tender Branson]

Missouri might have a caucus instead of a primary:

JEFFERSON CITY • The failure of legislation moving the state's presidential primary to March could result in Missouri returning to a caucus system.

A spokesman for the Missouri Republican Party would not discuss what party leadership is considering, but a conference call has been scheduled tonight for the Missouri Republican State Committee to discuss options.

States must report their planned primary dates to the national parties by Saturday, and with the Missouri Senate adjourned until next week, abandoning the February primary and moving to a March caucus might give the party a chance to stay in compliance with rules set up by the national Democratic and Republican parties.

Under current state law, a primary must be held in February. National party rules dictate that only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada can hold presidential nominating contests before March 6. States that violate that rule have been threatened with the loss of half of their delegates to the national convention. Other penalties, such as fewer guest passes to the convention, have also been considered.

A bill moving the state's primary to March has become stalled in the state Senate, a victim of the stalemate over a massive economic development bill. In response to the Senate's failure to pass a bill, Missouri GOP Executive Director Lloyd Smith said the party would "explore all of our options, including those that do not require legislative action."

While state law mandates that a presidential primary be held, it does not specifically say that the results must be used to divvy out delegates to presidential candidates. It only says that the results of the primary must be reported to the state parties.

The responsibility of selecting delegates to the national convention is left up to the parties and is to be done at caucuses around the state, and ultimately, at the party's district and state conventions.

"Missouri law sets forth how the presidential primary will be conducted, but the process of selecting delegates for the national conventions is left to the political parties," said Laura Egerdal, communications director for the Secretary of State's office.

County caucuses are already scheduled for March, just as they always are during presidential election years. Participants at those caucuses will select delegates to congressional district and state conventions, where delegates will be chosen to attend the Republican and Democratic national conventions.

Traditionally, the results of the presidential primary have been used to allocate delegates at the caucuses. But Missouri law does not appear to mandate that, meaning Republican officials could -- in theory at least -- essentially turn the presidential primary into a straw poll and tell the Republican National Committee that the true presidential contest will be held at the Missouri Caucuses in March.

The party's legal options are currently being studied, according to members of the party's state committee.

State committee members would not comment on what the party planned to do to stay in compliance with the national party's rules. But several expressed support for a switch to the caucus system, which Missouri has used previously over the years to vote for president.

Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/political-fix/article_e9248c7c-ea9e-11e0-9fc4-0019bb30f31a.html#ixzz1ZMOTGMHt

[Tender Branson]

Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.

Source?

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.

Why are they holding the meaningless primary anyway ? It's a waste of money and organisation then. They should just scrap it.

[Tender Branson]

Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.

Source?

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-republicans-will-caucus-on.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP to reflect this.  The primary on Feb. 7 still exists, but won't award any delegates.  The delegate allocation will be based on the March 17 caucus.

Why are they holding the meaningless primary anyway ? It's a waste of money and organisation then. They should just scrap it.

Scrapping it requires the legislature to actually pass a bill that would scrap it, and have the governor sign it.  But all legislative business is basically deadlocked at the moment, as Nixon is at an impasse with the legislature over other issues.  Most of the legislature is at home right now, and they aren't meeting in the capitol on a day-to-day basis.  If there's a breakthrough in negotiations with Nixon, they'll come back to the capitol and start voting on these things again.  But otherwise they're just going to run out the clock on the special session.

So the primary is just kind of a casualty of the legislative impasse.  It's not an important enough issue to motivate the legislature to come back to the capital from their home districts just to kill the primary.

Cann they kill the primary later ?

It's not like holding such a primary election is cheap and these lawmakers are probably not interested in wasting millions of taxpayer money ahead of the important 2012 election.

[Tender Branson]

Gov. Walker just signed the primary bill:

MADISON (AP) - Gov. Scott Walker has signed the bill that moves Wisconsin's presidential primary from late February to the first Tuesday in April.

Wisconsin's primary next year would be April 3, the same day as the spring election.

It's part of a move by the national Democratic and Republican parties to avoid front-loading state primaries.

Florida officials also decided Friday to move their presidential primary to Jan. 31, which is expected to prompt other states to move up their primary and caucus dates.

Walker's spokesman Cullen Werwie had no comment on Florida's move Friday.

Currently, Iowa is scheduled to hold its caucuses Feb. 6, followed by the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 14, the Nevada caucus on Feb. 18, the South Carolina primary on Feb. 28 and Super Tuesday March 6.

http://www.leadertelegram.com/news/daily_updates/article_d6971e50-eb82-11e0-a690-001cc4c002e0.html

[Tender Branson]

With every state except IA, NH, NV and SC now having settled on their final date, it very much looks like Romney is the clear favorite ahead of the March Super Tuesday.

IA: He probably won't win it, but ARGGGHGHHHH has him leading there right now !
NH: Should be an easy Romney win
NV: Should be an easy Romney win
SC: Perry was favored, but now he's down and tied with Romney again
FL: Also good Romney territory because of the many old people
CO: Should be a Romney win
MN: Could be a Romney win, if he wins FL before that and Bachmann collapses further
ME: Easy Romney
AZ: Probably Romney, because Perry's immigration policy is DOA and because of the olds
MI: Easy Romney
WA: Easy Romney

[Tender Branson]

As previously mentioned, as of yesterday it looked like the Nevada GOP was leaning towards scheduling their caucus in February, after Florida.  But tonight, the party voted to keep their current scheduling rule intact, which tethers the caucus date to the date of the NH primary:

http://www.rgj.com/article/20111001/NEWS19/110010335/Nevada-GOP-votes-move-presidential-caucus-January?odyssey=nav%7Chead

They plan to hold the caucus on the Saturday after the NH primary.  This sets up a confrontation with NH, as NH 1) historically votes on a Tuesday, and 2) has a state law that requires them to vote at least seven days before any other primary or caucus (except Iowa).

So something has to give.  Either NH has to vote on a Saturday, or they have to allow NV to vote just four days after them, or NV has to give up on going on the Saturday after NH.

Once we know how that is resolved, we'll know what the calendar looks like.

NH shouldn't act like a pussy, as everyone knows that they are much more important than NV.

I would suggest Jan. 10 for Iowa, Jan. 17 for NH, Jan. 21 for NV (Saturday) and Jan. 24 for SC.

[Tender Branson]

Now it looks like New Hampshire is waiting for NV's GOP meeting at the end of October.

If Nevada sets their date, NH will set theirs and then Iowa.

So we should have the final calendar in about a month.

[Tender Branson]

So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ...

[Tender Branson]

So, Iowa might be sometime between December 27-31 ?

Nice ...

Awesome. I love the idea of a drawn out primary season. Has Iowa ever held its caucus the year before an election?

I think it would be the first time that any primary or caucus takes place in December.

[Tender Branson]

Nevada caucus to Jan. 14:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65285.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire

Iowa and NH now have to make some hard decisions.  NH SoS Bill Gardner has consistently said that there's no chance of NH going less than 7 days before NV.  So the latest NH goes is Jan. 7.  NH also historically goes on a Tuesday, so maybe he would opt for Jan. 3.  But then that pushes Iowa into December.  Jan. 7 is less than ideal for NH, because it conflicts with NFL playoffs.  Though my guess is that Gardner really doesn't want Iowa pushed into December, because it would cause the parties to take a hard look at the role of IA and NH for the next time around.  So it's a tough call.

If NH does go on the 3rd, then I suppose there's a remote chance that IA could actually go *later* than NH, in order to avoid being pushed into December.  But that's unlikely.  More likely, NH on Jan. 3 means Iowa in December.  And probably not the last week of December either.  You're not going to get any news coverage over the week between Christmas and New Year's.  If Iowa is in December, it would probably be a week before Christmas, like Dec. 19.

I guess we'll find out one way or the other soon enough.

NH primary and NFL playoffs starting on Jan. 7 ?

That probably deserves a thick red reminder in my calendar ...

Nothing better than football and voting on the same day.

[Tender Branson]

It now sounds (via Chuck Todd) like Iowa will set their date soon (before NH announces), and would prefer to go in January.

That makes it sound like NH is leaning towards the 7th or 10th.

Iowa on the 3rd and NH on the 7th maybe ?

[Tender Branson]

Iowa just picked January 3 for their caucus:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20111007/NEWS09/111007011/1056/

[Tender Branson]

He also "said the primary would not be scheduled for a Saturday because it is the Jewish sabbath".

What ? There are only 10.000 Jews (1%) in New Hampshire. They can vote absentee if they don't want to vote on a Saturday.

[Tender Branson]

New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner said today he may schedule the first-in-the nation primary as early as Dec. 6, marking the first time ever that New Hampshire voters would pick a presidential candidate in December.

“Any Tuesday in December would be a possibility, but that’s one of them,” Gardner said today, when asked about a Dec. 6 primary. “It’s not something I would do lightly. It would be done regrettably, but if it has to be done, we’re going to comply with our tradition and our state law.”

http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/10/calendar-war-continues-considers-primary-early-dec/Co3q3Rv3plIJFP1SILrBUP/index.html

[Tender Branson]

A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:



Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

[Tender Branson]

A map of the primary/caucus dates so far:



Green = January
Blue = February
Red = Super Tuesday (March 6)
Light Red = March (excl. Super Tuesday)
Yellow = April
Purple = May
Orange = June

What's going on with Missouri?

It has a primary and a caucus.

Why would they do that? Just so they can hold one earlier than the other and double dip?

So they can waste taxpayer money.