The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Yelnoc]

Great Thread.  Frontloadinghq and the Green Papers contradict themselves on some dates though.  Which one do you prefer?

[Yelnoc]

Hopefully they move back to March 6th.  I like seeing my state a major player in Super Tuesday.

[Yelnoc]

Hopefully they move back to March 6th.  I like seeing my state a major player in Super Tuesday.

If Newt is running won't everyone else just concede the state to him?

Not necessarily.  I don't know many newt-fans here; I think most people don't really care where he's from.  The man has been irrelevant for a decade.  Though, if his campaign base is here and Huckabee runs, the two will probably split the socon vote and whoever the non-socon standard bearer is (Romney? Daniels?) could pick the state up with a plurality.

[Yelnoc]

Wow.  What if Florida, Georgia, and Michigan all end up on January 31?

[Yelnoc]

So did the bill with Georgia go through?

[Yelnoc]

So did the bill with Georgia go through?

Like I said here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2871890#msg2871890

"The bill has now passed both houses of the legislature, and goes to Gov. Deal to sign."

That's where we're at right now.  Deal hasn't signed it yet, but everyone expects that he will.  Just like we have bills in DC, MD, OK, and WA to move or cancel primaries that have been passed by the respectively legislatures but aren't yet signed by the governor (or mayor in the case of DC).

Oh, sorry.  I missed that.

This will be a pretty neat primary season they way the schedule is shaping up.  It looks like we might have several smaller super-Tuesday like primaries after IA, NH, and SC.

[Yelnoc]

Below is my estimation of the final GOP primary season schedule.


February 6, 2012: Iowa caucuses

February 14, 2012: New Hampshire primary

February 18, 2012: Nevada caucuses

February 28, 2012: South Carolina primary

March 1, 2012: Florida primary

March 2, 2012: Georgia primary

March 6, 2012: Colorado, Minnesota caucuses; Arizona, Massachusetts, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia primaries

March 11, 2012: Maine caucuses

March 13, 2012: Hawaii and Wyoming caucuses; Alabama and Mississippi primaries

March 20, 2012: Illinois primary

March 24, 2012: Louisiana primary

April 3, 2012: Maryland, Washington D.C., and Wisconsin primaries

April 14, 2012: Kansas caucuses

April 15, 2012: Alaska and Washington caucuses

April 24, 2012: Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and New York primaries

May 5, 2012: Michigan caucus

May 8, 2012: Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia primaries

May 15, 2012: Idaho, Nebraska, and Oregon primaries

May 22, 2012: Arkansas and Kentucky primaries

June 5, 2012: Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota primaries; North Dakota caucus

June 12, 2012: New Jersey primary

June 19, 2012: California primary

June 26, 2012: Utah caucuses

August 27-30, 2012: Republican National Convention is held in Tampa Bay, Florida

[Yelnoc]

The Arizona legislature has already adjourned for the year, so they can't move the primary later than Feb. 28th.  They can only move *earlier*, if Gov. Brewer decides to do so.

And Feb. 28th is unlikely for SC, since I think they also hold their primary on a Saturday.

I thought Brewer had the option to move it later?

[Yelnoc]

Idk if this was posted before, but Governor Brewer is looking towards moving Arizona's primary up to the last Tuesday in January (the 31st).  She has to make the decision at least 150 days before the new date, so she could potentially delay until early September.  If she wants to move the date back, which according to the article is possible, she can stall a little longer.

http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/07/arizona-gov-jan-brewer-likely-to-move.html

[Yelnoc]

Idk if this was posted before, but Governor Brewer is looking towards moving Arizona's primary up to the last Tuesday in January (the 31st).  She has to make the decision at least 150 days before the new date, so she could potentially delay until early September.  If she wants to move the date back, which according to the article is possible, she can stall a little longer.

http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/07/arizona-gov-jan-brewer-likely-to-move.html

Yes, I posted on this last week:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2964713#msg2964713

I feel like that guy from the flash mob AT&T commercial.

[Yelnoc]

At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.

Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

It's still absolutely possible.  If Arizona moves to Feb. 7th, or if Missouri sticks with Feb. 7th because they can't get the new primary bill through the legislature or something, then you could have:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 31 FL
Feb. other states, like AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc.
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

Depends on any number of things, like how much space SC thinks it needs before Florida, whether Georgia tries to go really early or not, etc.

What I think is off the table though is Iowa voting in December.  Hard to see how that's going to happen now.

What if Brewer moves Arizona to January 31 and then both Florida and Georgia determine they want to go before Arizona?

[Yelnoc]

Ok, so something like this might this be the earliest possible calendar?

Dec. 29 IA
Jan. 3 NH
Jan. 14 SC
Jan. 21 NV
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 GA
Feb. 7 AZ, MN, MO
Feb. 28 MI
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

[Yelnoc]

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/arizona-presidential-primary-calendar.html

Statutory requirements in Florida require the states to pick a primary date by October 1st; similarly, Arizona's 150 day requirement means that Brewer would also have to make a decision by October 1st. In Georgia, however, Secretary of State Brian Kemp doesn't have to decide on a primary date until December 1st (with the requirement that the primary must be at least 60 days after he announces it). Also note that the new law, unusually for Georgia, has no requirement that the election take place on a Tuesday.

I don't think he'll wait until December to decide, of course, and I doubt he'll use his authority to cut ahead of the first four states. I think its entirely possible though that he'll wait until after October 1st so he can make sure Georgia doesn't go after Florida. My best guess is that he'll end up picking a date somewhere between the day that Florida votes and the Monday/Tuesday after South Carolina votes (SC always has their primaries on a Saturday, right?).

I can only see Georgia trying to cut ahead of the others if a) Kemp is a Tea Partier and b) Perry implodes and Cain becomes the Tea Party candidate.  Not impossible, but not likely, IMO.

[Yelnoc]

I doubt South Carolina and Nevada will go on the same down.  I also have an inkling that Georgia may try to cut ahead of Florida and figuratively give them the finger.  Georgia and Florida have gone back and forth over things like usage of the Chattahoochee River; I also think Florida's stubborn determination to be a special snowflake is annoying certain people within Georgia.

[Yelnoc]

I know we've been over this, but when do you expect a firm date for the early states including Iowa and New Hampshire.  Thus, when do you expect a final, firm, set-in-stone calendar?

On October 1 Florida will be forced to make a decision.  The lawmakers will have to decide how much going 5th really matters.  The earliest date talked about (that I am aware of) is January 31; the latest being before February 28, the date of the Arizona and Michigan primaries.

That leaves Georgia and Missouri as the sticklers.  Since September 6, Missouri has been in a special session.  Missouri state law specifies that a special session may last no longer than 60 days, so they can potentially stall until November 4 before passing a bill (which would move the primary to March 6, i.e. "Super Tuesday", IIRC); if no bill passed Missouri's primary will stay on February 7.  The Georgian Secretary of State has until December 31 to decide, though I do not expect him to wait much longer after Missouri decides.

That means we will likely know the final calendar by November.  By next week, we should have a good idea of what shape that calendar will take.

[Yelnoc]

Yep, Georgia will go on Super Tuesday (March 6).

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/29/georgia-announces-primary-date/

[Yelnoc]

Missouri caucuses will be on March 17.

Source?

[Yelnoc]

Here is the relevant snippet from the New Hampshire Law.

"[the New Hampshire Primary must be held] on the Tuesday at least seven days immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election."

With Nevada scheduled for January 14, the closest date that meets state law is January 3.  Iowa state law "mandates its caucus be held eight days before any caucus or primary"; a legalistic interpretation would place the Iowa Caucuses on December 26.  But there is no way the state will hold its caucuses the day after Christmas.  December 20 looks like a more likely Tuesday.  The problem there is over three weeks and a major holiday will separate it and New Hampshire.  The Iowa results will become much less meaningful due to those dynamics.  And so, Iowa has a vested interest in keeping its primary in January.

The question becomes, how much will the two states compromise?  The New Hampshire Secretary of State seems set on getting his way; I have to think he would not go with the December 6 date but there is no way to know.  This could be easily solved if he ignored the mandate for a Tuesday and placed the New Hampshire primary on January 7.  Then, Iowa could somehow "broadly interpret" its mandate to go on January 1. 

[Yelnoc]

The thought of a primary just shortly after Thanksgiving is pretty mind-blowing.  If New Hampshire or Iowa goes early in December, that's what we're going to have.

And then we will have a space of a month before the primaries really start.  Assuming Romney does not sweep Iowa and New Hampshire, those results will likely be forgotten and South Carolina and New Hampshire will be viewed as the "real" first primaries. 

[Yelnoc]

Wow, what the hell is wrong with these people? Moving NH to December would essentially make it irrelevant, which would be a significant blow to Romney's campaign.

They should be applauding New Hampshire's decision, at least in private.  The only person for whom it makes sense to oppose Nevada's early date is Huntsman, who needs to win New Hampshire and then be relevant.

[Yelnoc]

Oh, and New Hampshire politicos have set up this ridiculous website to petition candidates to boycott Nevada if they don't change the caucus date:

http://boycottnevada.org/

Web 1.0...

rofl

[Yelnoc]

Your loss, Karger.

[Yelnoc]

Gentlemen, your work here is completed!

[Yelnoc]

It's handy for me, so I say keep it stickied, at least through Florida.  Just another two weeks (+ change).

[Yelnoc]

According to Wikipedia [citation needed] Ohio is a "semi-closed" primary.  Is that true, and if so, what does that mean?