The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

Missouri is going with caucuses. From the KY3 TV Website

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[Minnesota Mike]

Nevada may keep it's caucus in February.

From the Nevada News Bureau. (I would link if allowed)

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That would probably put them 5th, after IA, NH, SC and FL.

[Minnesota Mike]

Supposedly Nevada has indeed picked the 14th- not confirmed yet though.

John Ralston, top political reporter in the state, tweeted that Nevada is indeed going on the 14th.

[Minnesota Mike]

If New Hampshire insists on going at least 7 days before Nevada and they stick with a Tuesday Primary that would put them on Jan 4th. That would mean the Iowa caucuses happen in December.

[Minnesota Mike]

The biggest prize on Super Tuesday may be delayed.  Texas had scheduled the presidential primary for the same day as other state primaries but with the Supreme Court staying the Congressional and state legislative redistricting maps it looks certain that those primaries will be postponed. Will Texas hold 2 primaries or will they postpone the presidential primary to?

[Minnesota Mike]

Maybe Texas should actually move to June 5th, and join CA, MT, NJ, NM, and SD.  That would actually make June 5th the new Super Tuesday, as it would supplant March 6th as the day when the most delegates are decided, and the most people vote.

The way the schedule is shaping up I think it could lead to a long drawn out primary fight. There will be a lot of delegates available in April, May and June, many in winner take all states (either by state or CD).  There will be plenty of chances for a candidate who falls behind early in the process to catch up.

[Minnesota Mike]

This article suggests that the new date being eyed for Texas's primary is May 22:

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistricting/supreme-court-freezes-texas-elections/

But it also suggests that that might just be for congressional and legislative primaries, while the presidential and senate primaries remain in March.  But as I said yesterday, about 2/3rds of Texas's delegates to the RNC are allocated at the congressional district level.  So how are you going to have a presidential primary without knowing what the congressional district boundaries are?

Granted, the Texas GOP could simply change the state's delegate allocation rules so that it's 100% based on the statewide result.  But you'd still be left with the question of whether the state actually wants to pay for two primaries.

It looks Like the TX Republican party already had changed their delegate allocation rules to a proportional system based on the statewide vote.

http://blogs.star-telegram.com/politex/2011/10/texas-republican-party-changes-primary-plan-to-comply-with-rnc-hopes-it-was-worth-it.html

[Minnesota Mike]

Looks like the earliest the Texas primary will be is May 22, maybe as late as June 26.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TEXAS_REDISTRICTING?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT