Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 31, 2014, 02:21:42 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: 2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election  (Read 5774 times)
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #25 on: May 17, 2011, 06:22:07 pm »
Ignore

The Jefferson figures are the weirdest part. I'm guessing this Holsclaw woman is from there?
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4906
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile
« Reply #26 on: May 17, 2011, 06:24:12 pm »
Ignore

If it's any help, the idiot Williams is from Burkesville, which is in the Central Time Zone.
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6850


View Profile
« Reply #27 on: May 17, 2011, 06:24:35 pm »
Ignore

IIRC there's a runoff if no one makes it to 40%.

Not anymore, they did away with the runoff in 2008.

The Jefferson figures are the weirdest part. I'm guessing this Holsclaw woman is from there?

Yes, she's the county clerk or something like that.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6850


View Profile
« Reply #28 on: May 17, 2011, 06:30:30 pm »
Ignore

In the other races, Bob Farmer appears to be headed toward a win for Agriculture Commissioner on the Dem side, based solely on the similarity of his name to incumbent Richie Farmer. And the woman Beshear appointed as SoS is losing her primary.
Logged
Badger
badger
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10938
United States


View Profile
« Reply #29 on: May 17, 2011, 06:33:03 pm »
Ignore

With over 40% in Williams up 45-39.
Logged

Your self-serving slacktivism is propelling America to new heights.
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #30 on: May 17, 2011, 06:36:24 pm »
Ignore

Moffett's path to victory is difficult to see at this point but this is still going to be a lot closer than what people were expecting.
Logged
Badger
badger
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10938
United States


View Profile
« Reply #31 on: May 17, 2011, 06:53:18 pm »
Ignore

Moffett's path to victory is difficult to see at this point but this is still going to be a lot closer than what people were expecting.

Yep. With a bit over half reporting he's down 46-40. It looks like his early lead was caused by a big vote dump from Fayette county where he won big, but is now tapped out. He's taken a narrow lead in Jefferson, but it's essentially a three way race there and his margin won't help too much unless a bunch of precincts from his home neighborhood suddenly report. He is slightly ahead in the important Cinci burbs, but again not much margin overall and mostly reported also. He's getting killed in Eastern KY, but the vote totals there are generally small. Hardin county might close the gap some, but he'll need to start showing strength when the western counties report or he's probably done.

Still, impressive performance as Meeker noted, considering he was outspent over 10-1
Logged

Your self-serving slacktivism is propelling America to new heights.
Badger
badger
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10938
United States


View Profile
« Reply #32 on: May 17, 2011, 07:09:48 pm »
Ignore

With about 70% in Williams is up 46-39. Unless western KY turns out to be Moffett country, expect this to get called before long.

While Moffett is considered the Tea Party favorite, Williams has apparently done a strong job sucking up to them by measures including coming out for repeal of the Seventeenth Amendment mandating direct popular election of senators.

Are there any Republican politicians south of the Mason-Dixon who aren't crazy? Roll Eyes


EDIT: And then, with hardly anymore precincts added from the last post Williams's lead is down to 45-40. Hmmmm......
« Last Edit: May 17, 2011, 07:11:25 pm by Badger »Logged

Your self-serving slacktivism is propelling America to new heights.
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6850


View Profile
« Reply #33 on: May 17, 2011, 07:17:23 pm »
Ignore

Turnout seems to be really low; it's currently at about 113,000 on the Republican side, whereas it was over 200,000 in 2007.
Logged
Badger
badger
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10938
United States


View Profile
« Reply #34 on: May 17, 2011, 07:19:07 pm »
Ignore

It appears the largest yet unreported county now is Pike. Unless it goes VERY differently than the rest of east KY has tonight, it should come in big for Williams.
Logged

Your self-serving slacktivism is propelling America to new heights.
Badger
badger
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10938
United States


View Profile
« Reply #35 on: May 17, 2011, 07:23:55 pm »
Ignore

Almost 80% in, yet not a single vote counted out of Pike so far, and Williams still up 45-40. The fat lady is clearing her throat, methinks.....

EDIT: Closer to 80% and margin now 46-40.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2011, 07:26:01 pm by Badger »Logged

Your self-serving slacktivism is propelling America to new heights.
Badger
badger
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10938
United States


View Profile
« Reply #36 on: May 17, 2011, 07:36:29 pm »
Ignore

Over 85% in, the west seems to be coming in for Williams (albeit not in as great a margin as the east and south), he has a 46-39 margin, and Pike still 0% reported.

This one's over.
Logged

Your self-serving slacktivism is propelling America to new heights.
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6850


View Profile
« Reply #37 on: May 17, 2011, 07:43:22 pm »
Ignore

Looks like the Secretary of State race (on the Dem side) is tightening as Western Kentucky comes in. Not surprising, as the incumbent is from Bowling Green. Probably not enough to reverse the result, though.

The Republican side has been a 50/50 race all night.
Logged
Badger
badger
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10938
United States


View Profile
« Reply #38 on: May 17, 2011, 07:49:28 pm »
Ignore

Moffett hasn't shown much strength outside north central KY (other than Owensboro) and that region's almost entirely reported. Almost 90% in (and Pike continues playing the tease) with the margin now 47-39. AP should call this any minute. Not sure why they haven't yet.
Logged

Your self-serving slacktivism is propelling America to new heights.
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6850


View Profile
« Reply #39 on: May 17, 2011, 07:55:36 pm »
Ignore

They just called it. Also, looks like the SoS race didn't tighten anymore, it's still 55-45.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6850


View Profile
« Reply #40 on: May 17, 2011, 08:41:02 pm »
Ignore

Pretty much everything is in now. Williams beats Moffett 48-38, Grimes defeats appointed incumbent SoS Walker 55-45, Bob Farmer wins the Ag Commissioner nomination with 30%, and the Republican primary for SoS is currently a 1,002-vote margin for Bill Johnson.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2011, 08:48:54 pm by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
HST1948
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 537


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -5.30

P

View Profile
« Reply #41 on: May 17, 2011, 10:03:15 pm »
Ignore

This may be a dumb question but does Kentucky require a run-off in primary where no cantidate receives more than 50% of the vote?
Logged



"I believe we can keep the promise of our founders, the idea that if you’re willing to work hard, it doesn’t matter who you are or where you come from or what you look like or where you love. It doesn’t matter whether you’re black or white or Hispanic or Asian or Native American or young or old or rich or poor, able, disabled, gay or straight, you can make it here in America if you’re willing to try.
-Obama
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6850


View Profile
« Reply #42 on: May 17, 2011, 10:10:26 pm »
Ignore

No, there are no runoffs in Kentucky.
Logged
HST1948
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 537


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -5.30

P

View Profile
« Reply #43 on: May 17, 2011, 10:11:26 pm »
Ignore

No, there are no runoffs in Kentucky.

Thank you!
Logged



"I believe we can keep the promise of our founders, the idea that if you’re willing to work hard, it doesn’t matter who you are or where you come from or what you look like or where you love. It doesn’t matter whether you’re black or white or Hispanic or Asian or Native American or young or old or rich or poor, able, disabled, gay or straight, you can make it here in America if you’re willing to try.
-Obama
Kevinstat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1328


View Profile
« Reply #44 on: May 17, 2011, 10:16:18 pm »
Ignore

So this makes five primary elections in Kentucky since the runoff provision was added if no candidate gets 40% (before that, there was no runoff provision, and Governor and Lt. Governor were nominated and elected separately), and there hasn't been a runoff yet.  Back when there was no runoff, people winning the Democratic primary (often tantamount to election) for Governor often had percentages in the 30s and (in 1979 at least) in the 20s (29.14%), and Democratic Lt. Governor nominees had winning percentages as low as 23.15% (1979; Martha Lane Collins, who was elected Governor four years later, getting 33.97% in that primary).  Republican nominees for Governor usually won majorities and the lowest winning percentage for Governor from 1975 on was 41.42% in 1987.

Source: various election results pages linked to from this Atlas's Kentucky Election Results page.

...

While I was rambling, ...

No, there are no runoffs in Kentucky.

Even for Governor/Lt. Governor in the primary if no candidate gets 40%.  I know that was the requirement to avoid a runoff (for Governor/Lt. Governor only) from 1995 through 2007 and I hadn't been aware of that being repealed.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2011, 10:18:44 pm by Kevinstat »Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6850


View Profile
« Reply #45 on: May 17, 2011, 10:22:03 pm »
Ignore

It was repealed in 2008.
Logged
Shilly
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 528
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.68, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #46 on: May 18, 2011, 12:34:36 am »
Ignore

Whoo, map time!

Logged
Kevinstat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1328


View Profile
« Reply #47 on: May 18, 2011, 04:50:54 pm »
Ignore

It was repealed in 2008.

Okay, thanks.  It would have been kind of funny (in an eyes rolling kind of way) if no Republican had gotten 40% in this primary.  Of course, the repeal of the runoff and the public knowledge thereof might have impacted various candidate's decisions as to whether or not to run.  If there still had been a runoff, the top two candidates' percentages might have been lower.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2011, 04:57:49 pm by Kevinstat »Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6850


View Profile
« Reply #48 on: May 28, 2011, 01:36:04 pm »
Ignore

Gatewood Galbraith filed to run for Governor as an independent. He'll probably be the only third-party option on the ballot in Kentucky.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines