US House Redistricting: Nevada

[RI]

I'm not sure if the D/R numbers are registered voters or what.

Looks like it.

[tpfkaw]

How risky would a hypothetical 3-1 map for Democrats be?  Would such a map get into VRA trouble?

It won't get past the governor's desk, so... and such a map would have to have two Clark County-to-Reno districts, otherwise a Republican northern district and Republican exurban Clark district draw themselves.

It's not possible to simply split LV in 3?

[Padfoot]

Do we have a zoomed-in map of the Las Vegas area? That looks like a 2-1-1 map (2 D seats in Las Vegas, one R seat in the Vegas suburbs and the bush, one toss-up seat for Reno-Elko), but it's hard to tell without knowing exactly which parts of Vegas are in which seat.

PDF file

Joe Heck gets to keep the 3rd district.

One of the two comically gerrymandered Democratic districts is majority Hispanic, which has already prompted one Latino group to call the plan "an absolute assault".

Why are Hispanic groups pissed about a majority Hispanic district?

[Verily]

Do we have a zoomed-in map of the Las Vegas area? That looks like a 2-1-1 map (2 D seats in Las Vegas, one R seat in the Vegas suburbs and the bush, one toss-up seat for Reno-Elko), but it's hard to tell without knowing exactly which parts of Vegas are in which seat.

PDF file

Joe Heck gets to keep the 3rd district.

One of the two comically gerrymandered Democratic districts is majority Hispanic, which has already prompted one Latino group to call the plan "an absolute assault".

Why are Hispanic groups pissed about a majority Hispanic district?

Being barely majority Hispanic hardly guarantees a Hispanic representative somewhere like Las Vegas, so I figure they'd rather have two seats where Hispanics are the key Democratic primary voting bloc (~35% Hispanic) rather than only one.

[Sbane]

How risky would a hypothetical 3-1 map for Democrats be?  Would such a map get into VRA trouble?

I don't know about the VRA, but a 3-1 map would be suicide imho.

[minionofmidas]

How risky would a hypothetical 3-1 map for Democrats be?  Would such a map get into VRA trouble?

It won't get past the governor's desk, so... and such a map would have to have two Clark County-to-Reno districts, otherwise a Republican northern district and Republican exurban Clark district draw themselves.

Pretty sure a 2-1-1 map, with the northern seat the swingy one (but still a slight Republican tilt) would be very easy to draw. And would be what I'd do as a Democrat in full control.

[nclib]

In regards to Sharron Angle's candidacy in NV-2, am I correct that none of the redrawn districts will be conservative as the current NV-2? Though I imagine if she wins the special, that may give her an advantage in 2012.

[DrScholl]

In regards to Sharron Angle's candidacy in NV-2, am I correct that none of the redrawn districts will be conservative as the current NV-2? Though I imagine if she wins the special, that may give her an advantage in 2012.

I would presume that is correct to an extent, the district that ends up anchored on the portions of Clark County outside of Las Vegas will probably be the most conservative district, as it will take in numerous rural counties, but even then will be less conservative. The rural counties being in separate districts changes the game somewhat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The current NV-02 is R+5. The new one under that map is about R+2. NV-03 will probably end up about R+5 under that map, maybe a few points more, but it'll belong to Heck, no way can Angle carpetbag there.

[nclib]

In regards to Sharron Angle's candidacy in NV-2, am I correct that none of the redrawn districts will be conservative as the current NV-2? Though I imagine if she wins the special, that may give her an advantage in 2012.

I would presume that is correct to an extent, the district that ends up anchored on the portions of Clark County outside of Las Vegas will probably be the most conservative district, as it will take in numerous rural counties, but even then will be less conservative. The rural counties being in separate districts changes the game somewhat.

Good, the new map will be harder than the current map for Angle (or other ultra-right Republican) to win, even if the partisan balance isn't any better (or worse). Do the rural counties have to be split up, or is this just what the NV legislators are proposing? I realize a CD with all the rural counties would have to take in Reno, assuming no Clark-to-Reno gerrymander. Also, is Clark outside of Vegas really that conservative? IIRC, there's some unincorporated areas that vote heavily Democratic.

[Joe Republic]

Also, is Clark outside of Vegas really that conservative? IIRC, there's some unincorporated areas that vote heavily Democratic.

Look at what unincorporated Clark county includes:

[krazen1211]

Good, the new map will be harder than the current map for Angle (or other ultra-right Republican) to win, even if the partisan balance isn't any better (or worse). Do the rural counties have to be split up, or is this just what the NV legislators are proposing? I realize a CD with all the rural counties would have to take in Reno, assuming no Clark-to-Reno gerrymander. Also, is Clark outside of Vegas really that conservative? IIRC, there's some unincorporated areas that vote heavily Democratic.

I think you basically have to. Clark County has about 2.9 districts worth of population, which means it has to grab a few of the rural counties, while the Washoe district grabs the rest.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, but northwest Nevada doesn't need to be split, and in this map it (marginally) is.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I can see why the Republicans are trying to be so conciliatory. I've just tried to draw a McCain district in Nevada, and it is not easy. I finally got one to 50-48 McCain, which leaves the two Las Vegas-area seats safe (about 64% Obama each). The Reno seat is about a 1-point margin for Obama.

Here it is:




NV-01 (blue) - 64.3 Obama, 33.7 McCain
NV-02 (green) - 49.4 Obama, 48.3 McCain
NV-03 (purple) - 50.1 McCain, 47.8 Obama
NV-04 (red) - 64.5 Obama, 33.2 McCain

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Putting all of Clark's Hispanics wouldn't make the new district instantly competitive, either. I got a 68% Obama, 43% Hispanic VAP district and a 58% Obama district out of Clark, with NV-03 reduced to a 50-47 Obama margin.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I can see why the Republicans are trying to be so conciliatory. I've just tried to draw a McCain district in Nevada, and it is not easy. I finally got one to 50-48 McCain, which leaves the two Las Vegas-area seats safe (about 64% Obama each). The Reno seat is about a 1-point margin for Obama.

Here it is:




NV-01 (blue) - 64.3 Obama, 33.7 McCain
NV-02 (green) - 49.4 Obama, 48.3 McCain
NV-03 (purple) - 50.1 McCain, 47.8 Obama
NV-04 (red) - 64.5 Obama, 33.2 McCain

Surely the margin in the purple district can be improved a bit by trading some of the more marginal areas in the south for Elko County?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I guess you could dump Pahrump into NV-02, but that would make NV-02 better for the Democrats. Plus then all four districts would be in the Las Vegas media market.

[Miles]

Here's my first attempt at NV with the partisan data.

I tried to keep as many counties whole as possible; other than Clark, I took 1 precinct out of Nye.
In any case, it has 2 Safe Dem districts, an even district and one marginally Republican. I'd say this would be a pretty good compromise map.

Statewide:


Clark County:


CD1: (Blue-Titus?):
- 61.6 Obama/ 36.3 McCain
- PVI: D+11

CD2: (Pink-TBD)
- 50.0 Obama/ 47.6 McCain
- PVI: EVEN

CD3: (Purple-Heck)
- 49.4 McCain/ 48.5 Obama
- PVI: R+1

CD4: (Red-Open)
- 64.1 Obama/ 33.8 McCain
- PVI: D+13

[Joe Republic]

The Democrats have released their map:








As you would expect, it's a 3-1 map.  The 1st is D+16, the 2nd is R+7, the 3rd is D+8 (lol) and the 4th is D+10.

It's... um... "optimistic".

[Verily]

Those partisan figures can't be right, Joe. Clark County as a whole is only D+5.

[Joe Republic]

*shrug*  That's what Ralston says.

[Brittain33]

Those partisan figures can't be right, Joe. Clark County as a whole is only D+5.

I wonder if it's registration numbers, not PVI. The Republican version of NV-2 has a 7 point registration edge for Republicans and this is functionally the same district. I also recall that in 2002, voter registration numbers were the key factor in how NV-3 was drawn.

[Joe Republic]

They are registration numbers.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I did my best to draw it in DRA:

NV-01 - 59-39 Obama
NV-02 - 49-48 Obama
NV-03 - 56-42 Obama
NV-04 - 57-41 Obama

I... don't think that's going to fly with the governor.

[JewCon]

I did my best to draw it in DRA:

NV-01 - 59-39 Obama
NV-02 - 49-48 Obama
NV-03 - 56-42 Obama
NV-04 - 57-41 Obama

I... don't think that's going to fly with the governor.

I don't like this map for obivous reasons but that's one of the best partisan redistricting maps I've seen