US House Redistricting: Nevada

[nclib]

Another thing Dems need to keep in mind about aiming for a 3-1 delegation (probably moot since Governor would veto) is that it would give a very Republican (by NV standards) NV-2 that would likely elect Angle.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Not really; NV-02 is pretty much impossible to shift more than a percent or two, because it's dominated by Washoe County.

[Dgov]

Another thing Dems need to keep in mind about aiming for a 3-1 delegation (probably moot since Governor would veto) is that it would give a very Republican (by NV standards) NV-2 that would likely elect Angle.

No . . . In fact, It's close to impossible to create a district based around Reno that even barely voted for McCain without at least 1 Reno-Vegas gerrymander.  NV-2 is basically hemmed in by the Population distribution of Nevada, and can't really go anywhere.  Its almost certainly going to get at least a point or two more Democratic than it currently is.

Also, Angle isn't going to get elected anywhere.  PPP did a poll of it, and found that she would lose a primary against Heller in NV-2 84-8.  She only even get 12% of Tea Partiers.  People there aren't exactly happy she blew what should have been an easy win, and aren't inclined to do it again.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Another thing Dems need to keep in mind about aiming for a 3-1 delegation (probably moot since Governor would veto) is that it would give a very Republican (by NV standards) NV-2 that would likely elect Angle.

From what I have seen, the most Republican seat most likely has to be in the Clark county suburbs and exurbs, plus hooker counties district. Unless you do some weird crap with splitting LV three ways to try for a 4-0 Dem gerrymander. I would think that risky though.

[Vasall des Midas]

Someone draw me a map with three Republican Reno-to-empty-to-Las-Vegas districts and a hardpacked most-Dem-possible seat in Vegas, please.

[Bacon King]

Someone draw me a map with three Republican Reno-to-empty-to-Las-Vegas districts and a hardpacked most-Dem-possible seat in Vegas, please.

Toyed around in DRA for a little bit and at best I can get a very awful GOP dummymander. I got the super Dem pack up to 72% Obama, and the three Reno to Las Vegas districts all around Obama +4.

[Vasall des Midas]

So three competitive districts. I endorse such a plan.

[Joe Republic]

SURPRISE!

Sandoval vetoes Democrats' map.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

SURPRISE!

Sandoval vetoes Democrats' map.

Excuse me while I pick myself up off the floor.

[Joe Republic]

It's pretty stupid that Sandoval cited VRA violation against Hispanics as one if his reasons for the veto.  Was he not paying attention when the GOP brought out their map and several Hispanic groups angrily shot it down?  He could have just left it at a rejection of the Dems' overreaching for a 3-1 map and we wouldn't have thought any less of him.

[krazen1211]

Why would sandoval care what dem leaning hispanic groups think?

[Invisible Obama]

It's pretty stupid that Sandoval cited VRA violation against Hispanics as one if his reasons for the veto.  Was he not paying attention when the GOP brought out their map and several Hispanic groups angrily shot it down?  He could have just left it at a rejection of the Dems' overreaching for a 3-1 map and we wouldn't have thought any less of him.

I think he wanted to make his opposition sound more legitimate, but it's still clear he wants every Hispanic voter packed so the GOP can have a shot at 2-2 or even 3-1. That's obviously not going to have though.

[BigSkyBob]

It's pretty stupid that Sandoval cited VRA violation against Hispanics as one if his reasons for the veto.  Was he not paying attention when the GOP brought out their map and several Hispanic groups angrily shot it down?  He could have just left it at a rejection of the Dems' overreaching for a 3-1 map and we wouldn't have thought any less of him.

I think he wanted to make his opposition sound more legitimate, but it's still clear he wants every Hispanic voter packed so the GOP can have a shot at 2-2 or even 3-1. That's obviously not going to have though.

Again, it will probably go to court, and, at this time, we don't know what will happen in court. The courts may very well choose to create a minority influence seat arouond Las Vegas.

[Dgov]

It's pretty stupid that Sandoval cited VRA violation against Hispanics as one if his reasons for the veto.  Was he not paying attention when the GOP brought out their map and several Hispanic groups angrily shot it down?  He could have just left it at a rejection of the Dems' overreaching for a 3-1 map and we wouldn't have thought any less of him.

I think he wanted to make his opposition sound more legitimate, but it's still clear he wants every Hispanic voter packed so the GOP can have a shot at 2-2 or even 3-1. That's obviously not going to have though.

Again, it will probably go to court, and, at this time, we don't know what will happen in court. The courts may very well choose to create a minority influence seat around Las Vegas.

That doesn't even really hurt the Democrats though.  Aside from North Vegas, most of the LV area is lean Dem.  Even Drawing a Hispanic plurality district would leave plenty of Democrats left to keep at least one other seat safe.

[krazen1211]

All 2-2 maps are not equivalent. They want districts to elect white liberals, not hispanics.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Yes, Hispanic groups want to make sure Hispanics aren't elected and thus oppose a Hispanic-packed district which probably wouldn't even elect a Hispanic rep anyway (We're talking about 42% Hispanic and Hispanics have lower turnout...)

The Democrats would just rather have two >60% Obama districts than a district in the mid to high sixties for Obama and one in the high fifties (probably wouldn't be competitive, but why take chances?)

Yeah I plugged it into DRA and played with some numbers, you'd end up with an about D+4 seat, a D+15 seat, an R+3 seat and an R+5 seat roughly. The Democrats would obviously prefer two D+9 or 10 seats.

[Verily]

All 2-2 maps are not equivalent. They want districts to elect white liberals, not hispanics.

There aren't enough Hispanics who vote in Nevada to elect a Hispanic consistently even on a maximal pack of the Hispanic vote.

[BigSkyBob]

It's pretty stupid that Sandoval cited VRA violation against Hispanics as one if his reasons for the veto.  Was he not paying attention when the GOP brought out their map and several Hispanic groups angrily shot it down?  He could have just left it at a rejection of the Dems' overreaching for a 3-1 map and we wouldn't have thought any less of him.

I think he wanted to make his opposition sound more legitimate, but it's still clear he wants every Hispanic voter packed so the GOP can have a shot at 2-2 or even 3-1. That's obviously not going to have though.

Again, it will probably go to court, and, at this time, we don't know what will happen in court. The courts may very well choose to create a minority influence seat around Las Vegas.

That doesn't even really hurt the Democrats though.  Aside from North Vegas, most of the LV area is lean Dem.  Even Drawing a Hispanic plurality district would leave plenty of Democrats left to keep at least one other seat safe.

That would be two-two, which is less than what the Democrats are targeting.

[krazen1211]

All 2-2 maps are not equivalent. They want districts to elect white liberals, not hispanics.

There aren't enough Hispanics who vote in Nevada to elect a Hispanic consistently even on a maximal pack of the Hispanic vote.

No guarantee, no, but as nj democrats said, population growth will increase that number and give a Hispanic a chance.

In practice minority democrats don't often get elected in white liberal districts. So you know what you're getting in the BTRD plan.

[So the Heroes Fall]

LOL funny to say that considering who my rep is.

I don't even support the Democrats' dummymander anyway. Get two safe Dem seats around Las Vegas and two GOP-leaning seats in the rest of the state. Which is probably what we're getting anyway.

[krazen1211]

Ellison, I presume? Yeah I think he is one of a very small list of minorities that sit in a white liberal district. Contrast that to people like Scott, West, Herrera, Austria, where white conservatives elect minorities.

In practice Hispanic democrats need Hispanics to get elected. I guess the Nevada democrats want them to keep voting dem but also to shut then out.

[freepcrusher]

we are not racists in the sense that we don't want minority politicians. Someone like Raul Grijalva or John Lewis is indistinguishable from a white liberal in their voting record. The problem are people like Eddie Bernice Johnson or Corrine Brown. Corrine Brown is an idiot who wants the fair redistricting thing passed so she won't lose re-election. She fails to realize that the kochers are using her so all the surrounding districts are republican. In 1991, you had two moderately democrat districts in Dallas. Unfortunately Eddie Bernice Johnson, who was a senator in Austin back then, got selfish and drew a hyper democratic district for herself and got rid of all the good precincts from Martin Frost and John Bryant's districts.

[Gravis Marketing]

I'm not really going to adopt krazen's framework for defining various categories as white liberals and conservatives and how they behave, but I will say that by this standard, in the 2008 Congressional elections "white conservatives" elected exactly zero African-Americans and zero Hispanics who weren't Cuban-Americans in predominantly Cuban districts. This is at least one fewer than a caucus composed solely of the Democrat he's throwing out as an exception.

[Senator Napoleon]

we are not racists in the sense that we don't want minority politicians. Someone like Raul Grijalva or John Lewis is indistinguishable from a white liberal in their voting record. The problem are people like Eddie Bernice Johnson or Corrine Brown. Corrine Brown is an idiot who wants the fair redistricting thing passed so she won't lose re-election. She fails to realize that the kochers are using her so all the surrounding districts are republican. In 1991, you had two moderately democrat districts in Dallas. Unfortunately Eddie Bernice Johnson, who was a senator in Austin back then, got selfish and drew a hyper democratic district for herself and got rid of all the good precincts from Martin Frost and John Bryant's districts.

She realizes that obviously and she is using them. She wants her seat. That is her job. She is not a nerd on the web drawing maps, this is her real life and keeping her job is her self interest.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Krazen's obsession with proving that "white liberals" are the REAL racists is getting pretty pathetic.