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| | |-+  US House Redistricting: Nevada
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Nevada  (Read 12846 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: December 02, 2010, 12:53:11 am »
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NV will be getting a new seat.  The basic idea with a GOP governor and a Dem legislature will probably be to make Heck a lot safer while creating a new heavily Democratic district in Clark County.  Thoughts?  The northern seat would also contract and become more Reno-centered.  So there would be 2 more or less safe D seats and 2 more or less safe R seats (depending of course on Sharron Angle's plans for 2012).
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2010, 09:01:55 am »
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This is what I came up with for Nevada:




The blue district is 52% white, 12% black, 9% Asian, 24% Hispanic.
The red district is 35% white, 11% black, 6% Asian, 45% Hispanic.
The other two districts are 71% white.

I'm not sure which one Shelley Berkeley would run in and which one would be open. The red district is split off from parts of NV-01 and NV-03. NV-02 moves a little bit to the Democrats; Obama probably won there by a few thousand votes (not really sure what could be done to make it any safer; Republicans shouldn't have that much trouble holding it with anyone who isn't Sharron Angle). NV-03 probably becomes the most Republican district in the state.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2010, 10:38:26 am »
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I knew the outer Clark district would extend into rural Nevada, but I wouldn't have guessed it would be that far.
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« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2010, 11:44:22 am »
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I knew the outer Clark district would extend into rural Nevada, but I wouldn't have guessed it would be that far.

To be fair, there are around 12 people living in the non-Clark parts of the district.
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« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2010, 12:12:29 pm »
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I knew the outer Clark district would extend into rural Nevada, but I wouldn't have guessed it would be that far.

To be fair, there are around 12 people living in the non-Clark parts of the district.
Well yeah, but there are only 17 people in the whole of Nevada outside of Clark, Pahrump, Washoe, Carson, Douglas and Lyon - what I'd call the inhabitated parts of the state.
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2010, 11:23:02 pm »
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There's actually about 100k people in the non-Clark parts of that seat if I remember my maps right. Those super-sparsely populated counties ironically might have the highest per capita rate of prostitutes in the US (then again I imagine most of the prostitutes there live in either Reno or Vegas.)
« Last Edit: December 03, 2010, 11:24:37 pm by What I wouldn't give for a million smaller problems »Logged




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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2010, 05:15:04 am »

I chose to split Elko county rather than Churchill county in the north. In the south I tried to keep much of CD 3 intact only dropping the parts on the west side of Las Vegas to new CD 4. I improved the Hispanic influence in CD 1 to 49%. All districts are with 100 of the ideal population using the estimates.





Edit: I've updated the maps to reflect the comments. CD 1 improves to just under 50% Hispanic. Black and other D-leaning areas in Clark were shifted to CD 4 to create a likely 2-2 plan.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2010, 10:59:49 pm by muon2 »Logged


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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2010, 05:29:24 am »
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I'm not sure which one Shelley Berkeley would run in and which one would be open.

She lives in the blue district (Summerlin), but she's likely running for Senate anyway.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2010, 04:52:59 pm by Enrico Pallazzo »Logged



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« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2010, 08:25:42 am »
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I chose to split Elko county rather than Churchill county in the north. In the south I tried to keep much of CD 3 intact only dropping the parts on the west side of Las Vegas to new CD 4. I improved the Hispanic influence in CD 1 to 49%. All districts are with 100 of the ideal population using the estimates.




That CD4 is a monstrosity.
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« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2010, 08:48:19 am »
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I chose to split Elko county rather than Churchill county in the north. In the south I tried to keep much of CD 3 intact only dropping the parts on the west side of Las Vegas to new CD 4. I improved the Hispanic influence in CD 1 to 49%. All districts are with 100 of the ideal population using the estimates.





The problem with this map (from the standpoint that the Legislature is Democratic) is that it creates a 3-1 split in favor of the GOP. I think it far more likely that they'll end up with something like JohnnyLongtorso drew. They'll draw a second urban district in Clark County, and shore up Heck with rural Republicans.

It is possible to (barely) get the Hispanic district to 50%, but when you take VAP into account, it might not hold water. It is likely that a "Hispanic Opportunity" district will be created, however.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2010, 08:49:31 am »
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Yeah, there's no way the Democratic-controlled legislature is going to draw a new district like that. The deal with Sandoval is almost certainly going to be giving Heck a solid R seat while drawing a new lean/solid-D seat. And they're not going to be able to draw a Hispanic-majority seat, given that the Hispanic population is too spread out among Clark County. Maybe in 2020, but not this time.
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muon2
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« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2010, 09:34:49 pm »

Yeah, there's no way the Democratic-controlled legislature is going to draw a new district like that. The deal with Sandoval is almost certainly going to be giving Heck a solid R seat while drawing a new lean/solid-D seat. And they're not going to be able to draw a Hispanic-majority seat, given that the Hispanic population is too spread out among Clark County. Maybe in 2020, but not this time.

The comments made sense so I adjusted my initial post accordingly. I shifted the black and D-leaning areas in LV to CD 4. In the north CD 4 I made the Elko parts over 1/3 Hispanic, and the picked a large NA population in Churchill. That should make it one that Berkley can hold (less than 1/6 the district is outside of Clark). I also improved the Hispanic fraction in CD 1 to a fraction under 50%. I expect that with block level mapping both CD's would improve in their expected direction.

That CD4 is a monstrosity.

I expect that we disagree on aesthetics. I don't like districts that totally surround one or more other districts, and I try to avoid them.
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« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2010, 02:31:44 am »
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That CD4 is a monstrosity.

I expect that we disagree on aesthetics. I don't like districts that totally surround one or more other districts, and I try to avoid them.

When was the last time that a congressional district did that?
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« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2010, 03:35:40 am »
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That CD4 is a monstrosity.

I expect that we disagree on aesthetics. I don't like districts that totally surround one or more other districts, and I try to avoid them.

When was the last time that a congressional district did that?

Nevada did in the 90s and Utah almost did.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2011, 01:51:57 pm »
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Nevada Republicans in the legislature released their proposed map:



Here's the PDF verison if you want to zoom in.

It's rather similar to the map I posted up at the top of the thread.
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« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2011, 02:17:07 pm »
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That's fair.  As Nevada is neither 75% Republican, nor 75% Democrat, I think a 2-2 map is good
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2011, 02:20:45 pm »
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How risky would a hypothetical 3-1 map for Democrats be?  Would such a map get into VRA trouble?
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« Reply #17 on: April 28, 2011, 02:21:18 pm »
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Do we have a zoomed-in map of the Las Vegas area? That looks like a 2-1-1 map (2 D seats in Las Vegas, one R seat in the Vegas suburbs and the bush, one toss-up seat for Reno-Elko), but it's hard to tell without knowing exactly which parts of Vegas are in which seat.
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« Reply #18 on: April 28, 2011, 02:29:33 pm »
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How risky would a hypothetical 3-1 map for Democrats be?  Would such a map get into VRA trouble?

It won't get past the governor's desk, so... and such a map would have to have two Clark County-to-Reno districts, otherwise a Republican northern district and Republican exurban Clark district draw themselves.
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #19 on: April 28, 2011, 02:30:22 pm »
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How risky would a hypothetical 3-1 map for Democrats be?  Would such a map get into VRA trouble?

It won't get past the governor's desk, so...

I'm talking hypothetically.
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Miles
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« Reply #20 on: April 28, 2011, 02:46:07 pm »
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Angle would have beat Reid 53-47 in the new CD2 (with no third parties factored in). I cut the totals from Douglas and Lyon counties in half, so I'm a bit off. Still, its gonna be a real swing distinct.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #21 on: April 28, 2011, 03:40:26 pm »
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Here are all the map pdfs:

http://www.nevadarepublicanlegislators.com/
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #22 on: April 28, 2011, 03:45:27 pm »
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Do we have a zoomed-in map of the Las Vegas area? That looks like a 2-1-1 map (2 D seats in Las Vegas, one R seat in the Vegas suburbs and the bush, one toss-up seat for Reno-Elko), but it's hard to tell without knowing exactly which parts of Vegas are in which seat.

PDF file

Joe Heck gets to keep the 3rd district.

One of the two comically gerrymandered Democratic districts is majority Hispanic, which has already prompted one Latino group to call the plan "an absolute assault".
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« Reply #23 on: April 28, 2011, 04:16:29 pm »
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Angle would have beat Reid 53-47 in the new CD2 (with no third parties factored in). I cut the totals from Douglas and Lyon counties in half, so I'm a bit off. Still, its gonna be a real swing distinct.
A district like that is safe for a Heller type conservative but not a teabagger Steve King type.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #24 on: April 28, 2011, 04:20:16 pm »
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These are the numbers for the Republican proposal:

District   GOP%   DEM%   HVAP%   BVAP%   Total Hispanic%
CD 01   32.0%   45.5%   17.7%   9.9%   20.6%
CD 02   42.8%   35.7%   16.6%   1.9%   20.4%
CD 03   40.8%   37.5%   12.2%   5.5%   14.4%
CD 04   20.8%   57.8%   44.3%   14.2%   50.7%

I'm not sure if the D/R numbers are registered voters or what.
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