US House Redistricting: Nevada
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krazen1211
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« Reply #75 on: May 17, 2011, 08:24:31 AM »

I'm not really going to adopt krazen's framework for defining various categories as white liberals and conservatives and how they behave, but I will say that by this standard, in the 2008 Congressional elections "white conservatives" elected exactly zero African-Americans and zero Hispanics who weren't Cuban-Americans in predominantly Cuban districts. This is at least one fewer than a caucus composed solely of the Democrat he's throwing out as an exception.

Nunes is a cochair of the CHC and of course was elected in 2008. Austria too.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #76 on: May 17, 2011, 08:31:37 AM »

we are not racists in the sense that we don't want minority politicians. Someone like Raul Grijalva or John Lewis is indistinguishable from a white liberal in their voting record. The problem are people like Eddie Bernice Johnson or Corrine Brown. Corrine Brown is an idiot who wants the fair redistricting thing passed so she won't lose re-election. She fails to realize that the kochers are using her so all the surrounding districts are republican. In 1991, you had two moderately democrat districts in Dallas. Unfortunately Eddie Bernice Johnson, who was a senator in Austin back then, got selfish and drew a hyper democratic district for herself and got rid of all the good precincts from Martin Frost and John Bryant's districts.

No, I think she understands this quite well and doesn't care. I'm sure both Brown and Johnson looked at reality like I do and realized they're extremely unlikely to beat a white liberal in a primary without stacking the deck in their favor, without being stellar politicians, which they are not.
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Verily
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« Reply #77 on: May 17, 2011, 08:37:57 AM »

we are not racists in the sense that we don't want minority politicians. Someone like Raul Grijalva or John Lewis is indistinguishable from a white liberal in their voting record. The problem are people like Eddie Bernice Johnson or Corrine Brown. Corrine Brown is an idiot who wants the fair redistricting thing passed so she won't lose re-election. She fails to realize that the kochers are using her so all the surrounding districts are republican. In 1991, you had two moderately democrat districts in Dallas. Unfortunately Eddie Bernice Johnson, who was a senator in Austin back then, got selfish and drew a hyper democratic district for herself and got rid of all the good precincts from Martin Frost and John Bryant's districts.

No, I think she understands this quite well and doesn't care. I'm sure both Brown and Johnson looked at reality like I do and realized they're extremely unlikely to beat a white liberal in a primary without stacking the deck in their favor, without being stellar politicians, which they are not.

This is idiotic. Neither is in remote danger in a primary in a "fair" district from a white liberal. However, Corrine Brown, in particular, would be in danger in a general election in a fair district (although a competent Democrat would not be), while Eddie Bernice Johnson would probably lose to a competent black politician in the primary.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #78 on: May 18, 2011, 02:04:19 AM »

The fact that millions of white liberals voted for Obama over Clinton or Edwards in 2008, or even that millions live in diverse districts and regularly vote for minority congressmen, is less significant than the fact that Republicans in a district with .2% of the country's population voted for a Filipino-American rep with the first name "Steve" and a last name that's the same as a European country. White liberals are the racists, even though almost all of them have voted for minority officials at some point or another. The vast majority of w.c.s don't live in the few districts that keep getting referenced by our friend as redeeming an entire country.

This is nonsense on stilts.
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« Reply #79 on: May 18, 2011, 02:16:39 AM »

Look it's pretty obvious why the Democrats oppose the minority-packed district, because it'd be a Dem pack seat and would leave the other Las Vegas district relatively marginal and only about one or two points more Democratic than Heck's current seat (I've ran the numbers.) If you want to blather about how all white liberals (and Hispanic groups) are terrified of a seat being slightly more likely to elect a Hispanic than an identical-voting white Democrat you can but you aren't proving anything. It might also be taken a bit more seriously if not from someone who argues that only academic results of white students should be taken into account when comparing school districts.

Actually it's pretty clear why the Hispanic groups would oppose the pack too besides partisanship, a decently split Vegas gives them two seats that have a decent chance of electing a Hispanic Democrat vs. one seat that has a chance but no guarantee and one seat with little chance at all. The Nevada Democrats in general obviously care only about electing Democrats, it seems pretty silly that such a Hispanic-represented party in the legislature is supposedly full of people screaming "NO NO NO HISPANIC REP CAN BE ELECTED, WE MUST ELECT ONLY WHITE LIBERALS AND ABSOLUTELY NO ONE ELSE!" with basically no logic behind it. Of course the Democrats proposed a stupid plan that doesn't really accomplish this either, if you want to criticize the party go ahead and do it for that.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #80 on: May 18, 2011, 09:47:36 AM »

we are not racists in the sense that we don't want minority politicians. Someone like Raul Grijalva or John Lewis is indistinguishable from a white liberal in their voting record. The problem are people like Eddie Bernice Johnson or Corrine Brown. Corrine Brown is an idiot who wants the fair redistricting thing passed so she won't lose re-election. She fails to realize that the kochers are using her so all the surrounding districts are republican. In 1991, you had two moderately democrat districts in Dallas. Unfortunately Eddie Bernice Johnson, who was a senator in Austin back then, got selfish and drew a hyper democratic district for herself and got rid of all the good precincts from Martin Frost and John Bryant's districts.

No, I think she understands this quite well and doesn't care. I'm sure both Brown and Johnson looked at reality like I do and realized they're extremely unlikely to beat a white liberal in a primary without stacking the deck in their favor, without being stellar politicians, which they are not.

This is idiotic. Neither is in remote danger in a primary in a "fair" district from a white liberal. However, Corrine Brown, in particular, would be in danger in a general election in a fair district (although a competent Democrat would not be), while Eddie Bernice Johnson would probably lose to a competent black politician in the primary.

Clearly, you have much more confidence in their electoral prowess than they do. Cleaver too, which is why, if the SSP crowd is correct, he desired his peculiarly shaped district at the expense of Carnahan. You're not paying attention to what these people actually do and say.

But of course, in their own world, they're blacks first and Democrats second, and they aren't willing to gamble with their own money as you are. Keep in mind of course they want to keep the seat safe not only for themselves but their successor blacks as well.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #81 on: May 18, 2011, 10:03:25 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2011, 10:24:32 AM by krazen1211 »

Look it's pretty obvious why the Democrats oppose the minority-packed district, because it'd be a Dem pack seat and would leave the other Las Vegas district relatively marginal and only about one or two points more Democratic than Heck's current seat (I've ran the numbers.) If you want to blather about how all white liberals (and Hispanic groups) are terrified of a seat being slightly more likely to elect a Hispanic than an identical-voting white Democrat you can but you aren't proving anything. It might also be taken a bit more seriously if not from someone who argues that only academic results of white students should be taken into account when comparing school districts.

Actually it's pretty clear why the Hispanic groups would oppose the pack too besides partisanship, a decently split Vegas gives them two seats that have a decent chance of electing a Hispanic Democrat vs. one seat that has a chance but no guarantee and one seat with little chance at all. The Nevada Democrats in general obviously care only about electing Democrats, it seems pretty silly that such a Hispanic-represented party in the legislature is supposedly full of people screaming "NO NO NO HISPANIC REP CAN BE ELECTED, WE MUST ELECT ONLY WHITE LIBERALS AND ABSOLUTELY NO ONE ELSE!" with basically no logic behind it. Of course the Democrats proposed a stupid plan that doesn't really accomplish this either, if you want to criticize the party go ahead and do it for that.

Actually, that's not what I said at all. I actually said that people from states like California, DC, and Wisconsin like to compare apples to oranges, and that they do an extremely poor job in educating minority students, both of which are true by the facts. In order to hide this some seek the apples to oranges comparison.

And decent chance my a$$. The new maps have a whopping 19.3% Hispanic VAP in CD-04. How many Hispanic Democratic reps have been elected in the past 200 years from such a seat? You already know the answer....


Truthfully its not even difficult to give Hispanics a plurality in 1 district while leaving the other at over 60% Obama. Simply put Enterprise, Spring Valley, most of North Las Vegas, and the blacks in Vegas itself in 1 district, and the Hispanics in the other.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #82 on: May 18, 2011, 10:08:40 AM »

I really doubt that any conservative, especially one like krazen gives a darn about minorities getting elected to office, they'd prefer them not to get elected. Since it seems that that person wants to imply that white Democrats are racist, it's only fair that the same implication be made about Republicans. Republicans don't want minorities in their districts and when throw fits if they get too many.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #83 on: May 18, 2011, 10:15:08 AM »

I really doubt that any conservative, especially one like krazen gives a darn about minorities getting elected to office, they'd prefer them not to get elected. Since it seems that that person wants to imply that white Democrats are racist, it's only fair that the same implication be made about Republicans. Republicans don't want minorities in their districts and when throw fits if they get too many.

You mean like Brad Sherman did post 2000 California redistricting?


You can look at all the safe Democratic districts in the nation, look at the racial balance, and guess the race of the rep with over 90% accuracy. Republicans are afraid that too many minorities will vote them out of office in a general election. What are white liberals like Brad Sherman afraid of?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #84 on: May 18, 2011, 10:29:05 AM »


You mean like Brad Sherman did post 2000 California redistricting?


You can look at all the safe Democratic districts in the nation, look at the racial balance, and guess the race of the rep with over 90% accuracy. Republicans are afraid that too many minorities will vote them out of office in a general election. What are white liberals like Brad Sherman afraid of?

A racial primary? Seriously, things like that are factors in these decisions. Your attempt to label white Democrats as racist is a real failure. If anything, attempts to pack every minority voter possible into one district is what is really racist, it marginalizes their votes.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #85 on: May 18, 2011, 10:41:46 AM »


You mean like Brad Sherman did post 2000 California redistricting?


You can look at all the safe Democratic districts in the nation, look at the racial balance, and guess the race of the rep with over 90% accuracy. Republicans are afraid that too many minorities will vote them out of office in a general election. What are white liberals like Brad Sherman afraid of?

A racial primary? Seriously, things like that are factors in these decisions. Your attempt to label white Democrats as racist is a real failure. If anything, attempts to pack every minority voter possible into one district is what is really racist, it marginalizes their votes.

Good! You've finally figured out the obvious from decades of Democratic primaries, and what the result of neatly cracking the Hispanic community of Nevada is going to be, and what type of politician will be elected in the new NV-1 and NV-4.
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« Reply #86 on: May 18, 2011, 10:57:14 AM »

Actually, that's not what I said at all. I actually said that people from states like California, DC, and Wisconsin like to compare apples to oranges, and that they do an extremely poor job in educating minority students, both of which are true by the facts. In order to hide this some seek the apples to oranges comparison.

Saying "Of course Texas schools perform worse than Wisconsin ones, they have no blacks" is quite different from this.

And decent chance my a$$. The new maps have a whopping 19.3% Hispanic VAP in CD-04. How many Hispanic Democratic reps have been elected in the past 200 years from such a seat? You already know the answer....

Colorado Senate. Also CO-03.

Can you explain why Hispanic groups would oppose this beyond "They're Dem hack groups."? Because while that may be true, that still gives them no motivation to prefer to have whites elected over Hispanics and deliberately support blocking the election of minorities. And of course the fact that white liberals helped nominate Obama is completely ignored...

Truthfully its not even difficult to give Hispanics a plurality in 1 district while leaving the other at over 60% Obama. Simply put Enterprise, Spring Valley, most of North Las Vegas, and the blacks in Vegas itself in 1 district, and the Hispanics in the other.

Uh, you can't pack Hispanics and leave most of North Las Vegas in the other seat because that's where many Hispanics are. You also can't draw such a district without wrapping around the heavily Republican sprawl in the NW part of the LV metro. If it's possible go ahead and prove me wrong by drawing the map.

I have never once heard of a white Democrat complaining about more minorities being added to their district, unless it was part of a blatant GOP power grab (like the DeLay-mander.) I should note most minorities seem to take the same position as white liberals here, one black Texas State Rep supported DeLay's redraw because it would result in a new black rep. His predominately black constituents primaried him out next election.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #87 on: May 18, 2011, 11:03:49 AM »

According to Jon Ralston, the Democrats' second map addressed Sandoval's concerns... by putting all the Hispanics into Heck's district.
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BRTD
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« Reply #88 on: May 18, 2011, 11:08:45 AM »

According to Jon Ralston, the Democrats' second map addressed Sandoval's concerns... by putting all the Hispanics into Heck's district.

Ha. Hilarious!

Heck wouldn't have to worry though, he can just run in the new NV-04.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #89 on: May 18, 2011, 11:12:09 AM »


Good! You've finally figured out the obvious from decades of Democratic primaries, and what the result of neatly cracking the Hispanic community of Nevada is going to be, and what type of politician will be elected in the new NV-1 and NV-4.

In Nevada's case, the Democrats did not want to pack their base voters into one seat, it wasn't about getting a white candidate elected. In states like California, it's mostly about the primary, because there are plenty of Democrats to go around, the only concern is about party factions.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #90 on: May 18, 2011, 11:41:10 AM »

Actually, that's not what I said at all. I actually said that people from states like California, DC, and Wisconsin like to compare apples to oranges, and that they do an extremely poor job in educating minority students, both of which are true by the facts. In order to hide this some seek the apples to oranges comparison.

Saying "Of course Texas schools perform worse than Wisconsin ones, they have no blacks" is quite different from this.

And decent chance my a$$. The new maps have a whopping 19.3% Hispanic VAP in CD-04. How many Hispanic Democratic reps have been elected in the past 200 years from such a seat? You already know the answer....

Colorado Senate. Also CO-03.

Can you explain why Hispanic groups would oppose this beyond "They're Dem hack groups."? Because while that may be true, that still gives them no motivation to prefer to have whites elected over Hispanics and deliberately support blocking the election of minorities. And of course the fact that white liberals helped nominate Obama is completely ignored...

Truthfully its not even difficult to give Hispanics a plurality in 1 district while leaving the other at over 60% Obama. Simply put Enterprise, Spring Valley, most of North Las Vegas, and the blacks in Vegas itself in 1 district, and the Hispanics in the other.

Uh, you can't pack Hispanics and leave most of North Las Vegas in the other seat because that's where many Hispanics are. You also can't draw such a district without wrapping around the heavily Republican sprawl in the NW part of the LV metro. If it's possible go ahead and prove me wrong by drawing the map.

I have never once heard of a white Democrat complaining about more minorities being added to their district, unless it was part of a blatant GOP power grab (like the DeLay-mander.) I should note most minorities seem to take the same position as white liberals here, one black Texas State Rep supported DeLay's redraw because it would result in a new black rep. His predominately black constituents primaried him out next election.

Why? Because they're Democrats first and Hispanics second, unlike St. Louis Blacks, so they do as they are told. It's only hackish when they constantly flipflop this viewpoint depending on which state you're looking at.

You have to crack minorities to get 3 districts anyway, but not to get 2. Here is my map.




Red is 40.0% VAP Hispanic, and 66% Obama. Blue is 63% Obama. You could increase the Hispanic percentage in Red by splitting both Spring Valley (the corner with Hispanics in it) and Paradise (the southern part with Asians), but I left both intact as best as the app could do.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #91 on: May 18, 2011, 12:06:59 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2011, 12:30:59 PM by krazen1211 »

According to Jon Ralston, the Democrats' second map addressed Sandoval's concerns... by putting all the Hispanics into Heck's district.

Looks to be about a 60/60/54% Obama map between the 3 Clark districts. That random tongue into Paradise of course reduces the Hispanic percentage in CD-3.

Of course I think they split every city/town in Clark.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #92 on: May 18, 2011, 12:16:15 PM »

Krazen listen to me. Your assumption that white democrats don't want minorities put in their district isn't true. Do you by chance know of Bob Filner, Gene Green, or Steve Cohen? They all seem comfortable representing a district that is mostly minority.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #93 on: May 18, 2011, 10:42:26 PM »

Krazen listen to me. Your assumption that white democrats don't want minorities put in their district isn't true. Do you by chance know of Bob Filner, Gene Green, or Steve Cohen? They all seem comfortable representing a district that is mostly minority.

I would be a tad problematic for them to express a concern that their districts had too many minorities in it.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #94 on: May 19, 2011, 04:35:10 AM »

Krazen listen to me. Your assumption that white democrats don't want minorities put in their district isn't true. Do you by chance know of Bob Filner, Gene Green, or Steve Cohen? They all seem comfortable representing a district that is mostly minority.

I would be a tad problematic for them to express a concern that their districts had too many minorities in it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #95 on: May 19, 2011, 08:37:44 AM »

I'm curious as to what kind of Hispanic seat is possible to draw with 5 seats. Presuming continuing population and Hispanic growth in Nevada, is one very likely post 2020?
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #96 on: May 19, 2011, 08:59:35 AM »

Though the data is from 2000, this should give you a rough idea of the racial distribution in the city:



Each dot is 25 people.  Red = white; blue = black; yellow = Hispanic; green = Asian

(click on it for the larger source image)
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #97 on: May 20, 2011, 12:07:46 AM »

Krazen listen to me. Your assumption that white democrats don't want minorities put in their district isn't true. Do you by chance know of Bob Filner, Gene Green, or Steve Cohen? They all seem comfortable representing a district that is mostly minority.

I would be a tad problematic for them to express a concern that their districts had too many minorities in it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman


You are using the argument by blatent assertion.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #98 on: May 20, 2011, 12:20:26 AM »

Krazen listen to me. Your assumption that white democrats don't want minorities put in their district isn't true. Do you by chance know of Bob Filner, Gene Green, or Steve Cohen? They all seem comfortable representing a district that is mostly minority.

I would be a tad problematic for them to express a concern that their districts had too many minorities in it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman


You are using the argument by blatent assertion.

Can you translate that in English please?
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #99 on: May 20, 2011, 01:15:44 AM »

Krazen listen to me. Your assumption that white democrats don't want minorities put in their district isn't true. Do you by chance know of Bob Filner, Gene Green, or Steve Cohen? They all seem comfortable representing a district that is mostly minority.

I would be a tad problematic for them to express a concern that their districts had too many minorities in it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman


You are using the argument by blatent assertion.

Can you translate that in English please?

Everyone knows what a blatent assertion is. What you need to write is some explanation as to why you believe the "True Scotsman" fallacy has been uttered by someone here?
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