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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Nevada  (Read 13803 times)
Joe Republic
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« Reply #175 on: October 15, 2011, 12:22:32 pm »
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Hehe that's awesome. Outside shot at 3 districts depending on what kind of extremist comes out of the NV-4 primary.

I've no idea who the GOP will put up there, but yeah, probably an extremist.  Steven Horsford will be the Democratic candidate there, and will do fine in this district with a 13pt registration advantage.

John Oceguera would pick NV-1, and who knows where Dina Titus will go.  Probably a rematch with Heck, now that his district will have more Democrats than Republicans.

Reality check, Heck's new district improves Republican performance over his previous district.

My mistake, B.S.  Although, a district Obama theoretically won by 9 points and has a notional GOP registration advantage of 0.6 points is not exactly stable ground for Joe Heck.
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« Reply #176 on: October 15, 2011, 12:23:39 pm »
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Given that Steven Horsford wants to run in the 4th, I wonder if he tries to engineer changes to this map to move the rural areas into the 3rd.

How do you propose he does that?
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« Reply #177 on: October 15, 2011, 12:28:49 pm »
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Given that Steven Horsford wants to run in the 4th, I wonder if he tries to engineer changes to this map to move the rural areas into the 3rd.

How do you propose he does that?

Simply pass a map that tweaks the court master's boundaries.
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« Reply #178 on: October 15, 2011, 12:50:39 pm »
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Given that Steven Horsford wants to run in the 4th, I wonder if he tries to engineer changes to this map to move the rural areas into the 3rd.

How do you propose he does that?

Simply pass a map that tweaks the court master's boundaries.

Under what circumstances would he do that to weaken the 3rd rather than unpack the 1st? Other than in order to help Republicans, of course.

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krazen1211
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« Reply #179 on: October 15, 2011, 01:26:29 pm »
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Under what circumstances would he do that to weaken the 3rd rather than unpack the 1st? Other than in order to help Republicans, of course.



I presume that Sandoval would still have to sign such a map in order to overrule the court master. Now that they have seen the court map they might be more amendable to a bipartisan map, especially as the court map is not great for them.

I'm still not sure how the Democrats felt they would claim 3 districts.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #180 on: October 15, 2011, 01:44:28 pm »
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Hehe that's awesome. Outside shot at 3 districts depending on what kind of extremist comes out of the NV-4 primary.

I've no idea who the GOP will put up there, but yeah, probably an extremist.  Steven Horsford will be the Democratic candidate there, and will do fine in this district with a 13pt registration advantage.

John Oceguera would pick NV-1, and who knows where Dina Titus will go.  Probably a rematch with Heck, now that his district will have more Democrats than Republicans.

Reality check, Heck's new district improves Republican performance over his previous district.

http://nvsos.gov/SOSElectionPages/voter-reg/2008/1108ncd.aspx


Heck's current district, in terms of active voters, is 43% Democrat and 36% Republican

Back in 2008, the only time a Democrat won it, this district was 44% Democrat and and 35% Republican.
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« Reply #181 on: October 15, 2011, 02:03:53 pm »
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Hehe that's awesome. Outside shot at 3 districts depending on what kind of extremist comes out of the NV-4 primary.

I've no idea who the GOP will put up there, but yeah, probably an extremist.  Steven Horsford will be the Democratic candidate there, and will do fine in this district with a 13pt registration advantage.

John Oceguera would pick NV-1, and who knows where Dina Titus will go.  Probably a rematch with Heck, now that his district will have more Democrats than Republicans.

Reality check, Heck's new district improves Republican performance over his previous district.

http://nvsos.gov/SOSElectionPages/voter-reg/2008/1108ncd.aspx


Heck's current district, in terms of active voters, is 43% Democrat and 36% Republican

Back in 2008, the only time a Democrat won it, this district was 44% Democrat and and 35% Republican.

And, the new district is 40% D 37% R.  That's an improvement in Republican registration.
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« Reply #182 on: October 15, 2011, 05:16:38 pm »
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Did you forget to read my last reply to you, B.S.?  By making Heck's district fractionally more GOP friendly, do you believe he is now safe or something?
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« Reply #183 on: October 15, 2011, 05:41:58 pm »

Did you forget to read my last reply to you, B.S.?  By making Heck's district fractionally more GOP friendly, do you believe he is now safe or something?

I think safe R is going to be hard to assess. Assume the district was redrawn to put the 74 K people outside of Clark in CD 3 instead CD 4, and then CD 4 wrapped around to get more Ds from CD 3. This version of CD 3 still votes for Obama by 52 - 46, and is only 51.5 R - 48.5 D on the DRA average. 
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« Reply #184 on: October 15, 2011, 10:54:51 pm »
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Hehe that's awesome. Outside shot at 3 districts depending on what kind of extremist comes out of the NV-4 primary.

Uh, it is far more likely that map elects 3 Democrats than 3 Republicans. Especially if you want to talk about nominating extremists, something the Nevada Democratic Party isn't exactly known for and the Nevada GOP obviously doesn't mind doing.
A

Still not something a Republican should get excited about, as three Democrats is far more likely. Especially since the Republicans would be more likely to nominate an extremist in NV-4.
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« Reply #185 on: October 16, 2011, 01:43:44 am »
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Did you forget to read my last reply to you, B.S.? 

I'm rather mystified by that post, which I just read.

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By making Heck's district fractionally more GOP friendly, do you believe he is now safe or something?

I think the point is that you claimed that the district worsened for Heck. It didn't.
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« Reply #186 on: October 16, 2011, 04:27:11 am »
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Into Lyon County? Seriously? Anybody got a map of the split?
They seem to have valued compact-look-at-first-glance over all other criteria. (You'd pretty much have to to come up with a map that doesn't have the two-fillings donut, but they went well beyond that.)

The Lyon split is very reasonable. There is a natural divide due to a ridge between Yerington and Silver Spring. The state map is on page 15 of this document.

The existence of that natural divide was the reason why I asked the question. Smiley
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« Reply #187 on: October 17, 2011, 01:52:59 pm »
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Since I don't see a picture up already, here's the statewide map:

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« Reply #188 on: October 22, 2011, 09:07:57 am »
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Had to be done.



1st 71.2% Obama, 47.5% Hispanic (41.2% VAP)
3rd 53.7% Obama, 60.6% White
4th 52.4% Obama, 58.1% White

Boundary of 4th and 2nd matches special masters map.
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« Reply #189 on: October 22, 2011, 10:20:32 am »
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What are the Presidential results in the Clark portion of the proposed NV-4? I assume this is the vast majority of the CD population. Why is this more Democratic than NV-3? Probably race, but is there any other factor here?
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« Reply #190 on: October 22, 2011, 02:01:47 pm »
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NV-01: Obama 64.5, McCain 33.0, Dem 64.4, Rep 35.6
NV-02: Obama 49.5, McCain 48.2, Dem 45.3, Rep 54.7
NV-03: Obama 53.6, McCain 44.5, Dem 49.7, Rep 50.3
NV-04: Obama 56.1, McCain 41.7, Dem 54.0, Rep. 46.0

Just compare with my Dem pack just above. Quite a bit of it ends up in the 4th.
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« Reply #191 on: October 27, 2011, 06:59:57 pm »
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my district freed itself from some of the rurals. I'm happy.
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