US House Redistricting: Nevada

[Joe Republic]

I'm not sure which one Shelley Berkeley would run in and which one would be open.

She lives in the blue district (Summerlin), but she's likely running for Senate anyway.

[Joe Republic]

Do we have a zoomed-in map of the Las Vegas area? That looks like a 2-1-1 map (2 D seats in Las Vegas, one R seat in the Vegas suburbs and the bush, one toss-up seat for Reno-Elko), but it's hard to tell without knowing exactly which parts of Vegas are in which seat.

PDF file

Joe Heck gets to keep the 3rd district.

One of the two comically gerrymandered Democratic districts is majority Hispanic, which has already prompted one Latino group to call the plan "an absolute assault".

[Joe Republic]

Also, is Clark outside of Vegas really that conservative? IIRC, there's some unincorporated areas that vote heavily Democratic.

Look at what unincorporated Clark county includes:

[Joe Republic]

The Democrats have released their map:








As you would expect, it's a 3-1 map.  The 1st is D+16, the 2nd is R+7, the 3rd is D+8 (lol) and the 4th is D+10.

It's... um... "optimistic".

[Joe Republic]

*shrug*  That's what Ralston says.

[Joe Republic]

They are registration numbers.

[Joe Republic]

SURPRISE!

Sandoval vetoes Democrats' map.

[Joe Republic]

It's pretty stupid that Sandoval cited VRA violation against Hispanics as one if his reasons for the veto.  Was he not paying attention when the GOP brought out their map and several Hispanic groups angrily shot it down?  He could have just left it at a rejection of the Dems' overreaching for a 3-1 map and we wouldn't have thought any less of him.

[Joe Republic]

Though the data is from 2000, this should give you a rough idea of the racial distribution in the city:



Each dot is 25 people.  Red = white; blue = black; yellow = Hispanic; green = Asian

(click on it for the larger source image)

[Joe Republic]

Ignoring the useless flamewar going on here... the Nevada Latino Redistricting Coalition has decided to release their own map [pdf], which hilariously puts Joe Heck into a 41% Hispanic district, with a 49-28 Democratic registration advantage.

(Ralston points out that it's shaped like a donkey, appropriately enough.  I'd say it's more of a piñata.)

I can't wait for silly season to be over and we get to see what map we'll actually have for the next ten years.

[Joe Republic]

Splitting Henderson is going to be a no-go, although Heck could probably win a district with that map anyway.

I disagree with both of these statements.  You could be right on your second point if we assume that Heck would run in a district he doesn't live in, based on that map.

Moot point anyway.  These 'official' maps are a pointless waste of time.  A bit like arguing on the internet about it, I suppose.

[Joe Republic]

Hehe that's awesome. Outside shot at 3 districts depending on what kind of extremist comes out of the NV-4 primary.

I've no idea who the GOP will put up there, but yeah, probably an extremist.  Steven Horsford will be the Democratic candidate there, and will do fine in this district with a 13pt registration advantage.

John Oceguera would pick NV-1, and who knows where Dina Titus will go.  Probably a rematch with Heck, now that his district will have more Democrats than Republicans.

[Joe Republic]

Hehe that's awesome. Outside shot at 3 districts depending on what kind of extremist comes out of the NV-4 primary.

I've no idea who the GOP will put up there, but yeah, probably an extremist.  Steven Horsford will be the Democratic candidate there, and will do fine in this district with a 13pt registration advantage.

John Oceguera would pick NV-1, and who knows where Dina Titus will go.  Probably a rematch with Heck, now that his district will have more Democrats than Republicans.

Reality check, Heck's new district improves Republican performance over his previous district.

My mistake, B.S.  Although, a district Obama theoretically won by 9 points and has a notional GOP registration advantage of 0.6 points is not exactly stable ground for Joe Heck.

[Joe Republic]

Given that Steven Horsford wants to run in the 4th, I wonder if he tries to engineer changes to this map to move the rural areas into the 3rd.

How do you propose he does that?

[Joe Republic]

Did you forget to read my last reply to you, B.S.?  By making Heck's district fractionally more GOP friendly, do you believe he is now safe or something?