In the RGV, the thesis was that low propensity to vote Hispanics are more Pub than high propensity ones, and thus the surge in turnout in the RGV in 2020 also moved the numbers to the Pubs.
That's certainly what I hope happened rather than some kind of backlash. I don't know if the results of the TX-34 special disprove that notion or not though.
Feel like you can't use TX-34 to really prove anything other than RGV is a very unreliable region when it comes to turnout and that a Republican CAN win in the right circumstnaces.
I think what makes Las Vegas different from RGV is several thing:
Firstly these are urban Hispanic's we're talking about; we've yet to see a case outside of Cubans in Florida where the GOP has outright won urban Hispanics.
Secondly, Las Vegas also has large Asian, Black, educated and uneducated white folks as well. A universal swing to the extreme right is very difficult unless Dems are collapsing amongst all these groups whereas in the RGV there's really nothing to cancel out Hispanics shift right.
Also the Northeast corner of Las Vegas is blue enough that significantly higher turnout would more than offset a small shift right, simillar to what we saw in some parts of Harris County in 2020. This is also the region that has the worst turnout overall.
