massachussets senate: with high turnout, brown in danger

[Tender Branson]

Kennedy - 48%
Brown - 41%

Patrick - 49%
Brown - 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_1202424.pdf

[You kip if you want to...]

Well, duh?

[redcommander]

Kennedy - 48%
Brown - 41%

Patrick - 49%
Brown - 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_1202424.pdf

What do you mean? Brown is leading all the top tier Democrats in head to head matchups.

[The Head Beagle]

Edit: ah, immediately after posting, I see what's going on...

.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The poll is merely a reflection of name recognition. All Democrats polled against Brown have mixed favorables and are not very well known. I'd expect these mediocre candidates to be doing much worse against Fake Moderate Hero Brown with the approval ratings he has.

[memphis]

Like it matters. He'll be teabagged anyway.

[Dallasfan65]

LOL.

Good one, Vander.

Anyway, I say Brown's re-election is still up in the air, but very do-able.

[SvenssonRS]

Like it matters. He'll be teabagged anyway.

Good luck trying to teabag someone who has a 70% approval rating. The tea party would look like hypocrites.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Interesting notes:

Stephen Lynch has better favorability with self-identified conservatives than liberals.

More people think the GOP is "too liberal" than Scott Brown.




The fact that Brown earns about 25% of Democratic votes is unsurprising - MA probably a higher proportion of ConservaDems than any other state, including in the South and West.

[redcommander]

Like it matters. He'll be teabagged anyway.

Good luck trying to teabag someone who has a 70% approval rating. The tea party would look like hypocrites.

Isn't that Olympia Snowe's approval rating though?

[N.i.K.]

Hahahaha, this one is probably my favorite yet, Blubb. Brown's looking better then I expected, but it is still very much a tossup.

[Χahar]

Hahahaha, this one is probably my favorite yet, Blubb. Brown's looking better then I expected, but it is still very much a tossup.

Oh my God it's Vander Blubb.

[Former Moderate]

Like it matters. He'll be teabagged anyway.

Scott Brown's approvals amongst conservatives is 71–14, and 74–13 amongst all Republicans. There's no room for a challenge from the right.

[Former Moderate]

Interesting notes:

Stephen Lynch has better favorability with self-identified conservatives than liberals.

Lynch is a pro-life Democrat.

[Secretary Polnut]

They over-sampled white voters by about 7%

[SvenssonRS]

Like it matters. He'll be teabagged anyway.

Good luck trying to teabag someone who has a 70% approval rating. The tea party would look like hypocrites.

Isn't that Olympia Snowe's approval rating though?

I heard hers was more like 40something with disapproval higher. As Moderate said, Brown has 71-14 approvals among conservatives. Basically, the tea party has no chance in hell.

[Invisible Obama]

Brown will have to vote the GOP party line to maintain high approvals among conservatives, which won't do him any favors in the general. If he tries to play the moderate, the Tea Party has it's angle. He's stuck in a very hard place.

[Sewer]

The tea party would look like hypocrites.

Ummmm...

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting notes:

Stephen Lynch has better favorability with self-identified conservatives than liberals.

More people think the GOP is "too liberal" than Scott Brown.




The fact that Brown earns about 25% of Democratic votes is unsurprising - MA probably a higher proportion of ConservaDems than any other state, including in the South and West.

More ConservaDems in MA than in WV?!?  I'm sure gay marriage and state health insurance are the first things on the agenda in that Democratic trifecta state.  And it's not such a fleeting thing in WV either.  The Dems gained seats in the state legislature in 2010.

[BushKenya]

I would never expect Sen. Brown to be safe, this is Massachusetts after all.  This was really just a fluke win, in my estimation, and the beginning of the Republican wave that carried over into November's elections.  In a normal year, Scott Brown would never have won.

That said, if 2012 is another Republican year, then you never know, he could be safer than expected.  All bets are off at that point.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Massachusetts is so heavily Dem that the legislative GOP caucus is a complete joke of virtually no relevance. So anyone seriously into politics has to be a Democrat to make a difference. This means you have tons of conservatives registering as Democrats to vote in the only election that matters (the Democratic primary) and sometimes nominating fairly conservative candidates. So it has a much larger proportion of conservadems than more conservative states, certainly more than places like Michigan.

However I highly doubt it has more than Arkansas.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Interesting notes:

Stephen Lynch has better favorability with self-identified conservatives than liberals.

More people think the GOP is "too liberal" than Scott Brown.




The fact that Brown earns about 25% of Democratic votes is unsurprising - MA probably a higher proportion of ConservaDems than any other state, including in the South and West.

More ConservaDems in MA than in WV?!?  I'm sure gay marriage and state health insurance are the first things on the agenda in that Democratic trifecta state.  And it's not such a fleeting thing in WV either.  The Dems gained seats in the state legislature in 2010.

Maybe I'll give you WV (although WV Dems are generally populist, not conservative).

Here's a statistic for people to chew on - Pro-choicers now only have a majority of two members in the state House of Representatives.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Interesting notes:

Stephen Lynch has better favorability with self-identified conservatives than liberals.

More people think the GOP is "too liberal" than Scott Brown.




The fact that Brown earns about 25% of Democratic votes is unsurprising - MA probably a higher proportion of ConservaDems than any other state, including in the South and West.

More ConservaDems in MA than in WV?!?  I'm sure gay marriage and state health insurance are the first things on the agenda in that Democratic trifecta state.  And it's not such a fleeting thing in WV either.  The Dems gained seats in the state legislature in 2010.

Maybe I'll give you WV (although WV Dems are generally populist, not conservative).

Here's a statistic for people to chew on - Pro-choicers now only have a majority of two members in the state House of Representatives.

Arkansas.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Interesting notes:

Stephen Lynch has better favorability with self-identified conservatives than liberals.

More people think the GOP is "too liberal" than Scott Brown.




The fact that Brown earns about 25% of Democratic votes is unsurprising - MA probably a higher proportion of ConservaDems than any other state, including in the South and West.

More ConservaDems in MA than in WV?!?  I'm sure gay marriage and state health insurance are the first things on the agenda in that Democratic trifecta state.  And it's not such a fleeting thing in WV either.  The Dems gained seats in the state legislature in 2010.

Maybe I'll give you WV (although WV Dems are generally populist, not conservative).

Here's a statistic for people to chew on - Pro-choicers now only have a majority of two members in the state House of Representatives.

Arkansas.

Kentucky, Oklahoma.

[Jayhawker]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_1202424.pdf

Scott Brown leads all Democrats - Patrick by 7, Vicki Kennedy by 7, Markey by 10, Capuano by 16, and Lynch by 19.